A probability-based approach to setting annual catch levels.

The requirement of setting annual catch limits to prevent overfishing has been added to the Magnuson-Stevens Fishery Conservation and Management Reauthorization Act of 2006 (MSRA). Because this requirement is new, a body of applied scientific practice for deriving annual catch limits and accompanying targets does not yet exist. This article demonstrates an approach to setting levels of catch that is intended to keep the probability of future overfishing at a preset low level. The proposed framework is based on stochastic projection with uncertainty in population dynamics. The framework extends common projection methodology by including uncertainty in the limit reference point and in management implementation, and by making explicit the risk of overfishing that managers consider acceptable. The approach is illustrated with application to gag (Mycteroperca microlepis), a grouper that inhabits the waters off the southeastern United States. Although devised to satisfy new legislation of the MSRA, the framework has potential application to any fishery where the management goal is to limit the risk of overfishing by controlling catch

Ignorance Implicatures and Non-doxastic Attitude Verbs

This paper is about conjunctions and disjunctions in the scope of non-doxastic atti- tude verbs. These constructions generate a certain type of ignorance implicature. I argue that the best way to account for these implicatures is by appealing to a notion of contex- tual redundancy (Schlenker, 2008; Fox, 2008; Mayr and Romoli, 2016). This pragmatic approach to ignorance implicatures is contrasted with a semantic account of disjunctions under `wonder' that appeals to exhaustication (Roelofsen and Uegaki, 2016). I argue that exhaustication-based theories cannot handle embedded conjunctions, so a pragmatic account of ignorance implicatures is superior

Drag bias feedback for the analytic drag control entry guidance system

The Analytic Drag Control (ADC) entry guidance has been developed and baselined for the space shuttle orbiter entry. A method is presented which corrects the orbiter entry guidance commanded bank angle for biases between navigated drag and guidance computed reference drag. This is accomplished by an integral feedback technique, which uses the drag bias information to adjust the difference between navigated and reference altitude rate used by the ADC guidance. The method improves the capability of the ADC guidance system by compensating for any error source which causes a bias between the navigated drag and reference drag profile. These errors include navigated altitude rate errors, atmosphere dispersions, and roll attitude deadband effects. A discussion of the method and results of digital computer entry simulations is presented

Solar Constant Data from Earth Radiation Budget Measurements

At present, solar total irradiance measurements are made from four satellites using electrically self calibrating pyrheliometers, as a part of the earth radiation budget measurement programs. The Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) mission onboard Nimbus-7 spacecraft (Nimbus/ERB) started solar total irradiance measurements in November 1978, and is still obtaining irradiance data on every orbit, daily. The Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) solar monitors onboard Earth Radiation Budget Satellite (ERBS), NOAA-9 and NOAA-10 started solar total irradiance measurements in October 1984, January 1985, and October 1986, respectively. Our knowledge of solar total irradiance and its variability has grown remarkably during the past few years, as a result of the above measurements, and the high precision data obtained from Solar Maximum Mission/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor-1 (SMM/ACRIM-1). The results from a comparative study of the solar constant data available from the above missions are presented. The solar constant value derived from the sensors agree within the uncertainty associated with absolute pyrheliometers available at present. An attempt will be made to correlate the solar irradiance variability with other solar parameters. The measurements from Nimbus-7/ERB started November 1978, as the solar cycle 21 was increasing in activity. The solar luminosity reached a maximum in the spring of 1979. The irradiance then decreased slowly to a minimum which lasted from 1984 through 1986. The irradiance is presently increasing towards a new maximum. It appears that the solar constant value follow an eleven year cycle

An Alternative Derivation of the Nimbus 7 Total Solar Irradiance Variations

Nimbus 7 solar irradiance values have been made available to the scientific community through the open literature (e.g., Hickey et al., 1988) and through NASA data centers. A comparison of these measurements to the Solar Maximum Mission/Active Cavity Radiometer Irradiance Monitor (SSM/ACRIM) time series indicated differences which might be caused in part by the method of converting the Nimbus 7 raw data counts to solar irradiance values. In an effort to see if the derivation of the solar irradiance could be improved, the raw counts were extracted from the tapes and analyzed to see how a new algorithm could be constructed. The basic form of the calibration remains the same as in the previous solar irradiance derivations. However, the input values to the equation differ from what was used before. In particular, improved values of the Earth-sun distance are incorporated and new temperature sensitivities were derived. Several problems with the instrument were uncovered which previously had not been noticed. The sun did not appear to cross the center of field of the radiometer but was systematically off by 1.5 to 2.5 degrees. The analog to digital convertor changed its properties in July 1980. The gain of the electronics apparently increased by 0.03 percent in September 1987. Applying these and other changes in the processing, the day to day variations appear much more like the SMM observations. In fact, the Nimbus 7 observations are sufficiently stable that a problem with the SSM observations in the spin mode period of 1981 to 1984 can be detected when the two time series are compared

Origins of choice-related activity in mouse somatosensory cortex.

During perceptual decisions about faint or ambiguous sensory stimuli, even identical stimuli can produce different choices. Spike trains from sensory cortex neurons can predict trial-to-trial variability in choice. Choice-related spiking is widely studied as a way to link cortical activity to perception, but its origins remain unclear. Using imaging and electrophysiology, we found that mouse primary somatosensory cortex neurons showed robust choice-related activity during a tactile detection task. Spike trains from primary mechanoreceptive neurons did not predict choices about identical stimuli. Spike trains from thalamic relay neurons showed highly transient, weak choice-related activity. Intracellular recordings in cortex revealed a prolonged choice-related depolarization in most neurons that was not accounted for by feed-forward thalamic input. Top-down axons projecting from secondary to primary somatosensory cortex signaled choice. An intracellular measure of stimulus sensitivity determined which neurons converted choice-related depolarization into spiking. Our results reveal how choice-related spiking emerges across neural circuits and within single neurons

Computation and analyses of averaged monthly zonal albedos at the top of the atmosphere using Nimbus-7 ERB observed data

The Nimbus-7 ERB experiment measures the Earth's albedo from a satellite in a fixed Sun synchronous orbit. The data is obtained at a fixed time of the day for each latitude observed. For Earth Radiation Budget studies it is normally assumed that the observed scene is invariant during the day and that the albedo varies only with the solar zenith angle. This paper presents a technique for computing mean zonal albedos as a function of the albedo (A sub s) of cloud free atmosphere, the albedo (A sub c) of cloudy atmosphere and of the cloud fractions. The values of A sub s and A sub c are obtained from radiation transfer theory and climatological values of the surface and cloud albedos. The albedos are a function of the solar zenith angle, latitude and solar declination. The cloud fractions are measured from the Nimbus-7 ERB albedos. The present study shows the importance of taking into account latitude variations in surface types and in cloud cover