Resource windfalls, innovation, and growth

This paper explores the connection between resource abundance and innovation, as a transmission mechanism that can elucidate part of the resource curse hypothesis, i.e. the observed negative impact of resource wealth on income growth. We develop a variation of the Ramsey-Cass-Koopmans model with endogenous growth to explain the phenomenon. In this model, consumers trade off leisure versus consumption, and firms trade off innovation efforts versus manufacturing. We show that an increase in resource income frustrates economic growth in two ways: directly by reducing work effort and indirectly by inducing a smaller proportion of the labor force to engage in innovation

Метафизическое значение категорий предмета и непредмета в логике, поясняемое примерами решения антиномии Рассела в теории типов и аксиоматической системе NBG

Метафизическое значение категорий предмета и непредмета в логике, поясняемое примерами решения антиномии Рассела в теории типов и аксиоматической системе NB

The Dutch Disease in Reverse: Iceland's Natural Experiment

For a long time, abundant natural resources brought Iceland a high and volatile real exchange rate with adverse effects on manufacturing and services. During 2003-2008, another national treasure, the sovereign’s AAA rating, was used by privatized banks to attract foreign capital, elevating the real exchange rate even further. The financial collapse and the associated collapse of the currency in 2008 left the country with a large foreign debt which offset some of the effect of the natural resources on the real exchange rate. In effect, this was the Dutch disease in reverse as witnessed, in particular, by a massive increase in the number of tourists following the financial collapse. This paper discusses the behavior of the exchange rate of the Icelandic króna before and after 2008 as well as its relationship to natural resources, capital flows, output, exports and imports, including tourism

A hybrid landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator for transition probabilities in partially non-Markov multi-state models

Multi-state models are increasingly being used to model complex epidemiological and clinical outcomes over time. It is common to assume that the models are Markov, but the assumption can often be unrealistic. The Markov assumption is seldomly checked and violations can lead to biased estimation for many parameters of interest. As argued by Datta and Satten (2001), the Aalen-Johansen estimator of occupation probabilities is consistent also in the non-Markov case. Putter and Spitoni (2018) exploit this fact to construct a consistent estimator of state transition probabilities, the landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator, which does not rely on the Markov assumption. A disadvantage of landmarking is data reduction, leading to a loss of power. This is problematic for less traveled transitions, and undesirable when such transitions indeed exhibit Markov behaviour. Using a framework of partially non-Markov multi-state models we suggest a hybrid landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator for transition probabilities. The proposed estimator is a compromise between regular Aalen-Johansen and landmark estimation, using transition specific landmarking, and can drastically improve statistical power. The methods are compared in a simulation study and in a real data application modelling individual transitions between states of sick leave, disability, education, work and unemployment. In the application, a birth cohort of 184951 Norwegian men are followed for 14 years from the year they turn 21, using data from national registries

The Resource Curse and Rentier States in the Caspian Region : A Need for Context Analysis

Although much attention is paid to the Caspian region with regard to energy issues, the domestic consequences of the region’s resource production have so far constituted a neglected field of research. A systematic survey of the latest research trends in the economic and political causalities of the resource curse and of rentier states reveals that there is a need for context analysis. In reference to this, the paper traces any shortcomings and promising approaches in the existent body of literature on the Caspian region. Following on from this, the paper then proposes a new approach; specifically, one in which any differences and similarities in the context conditions are captured. This enables a more precise exploration of the exact ways in which they form contemporary post-Soviet Caspian rentier states.Obwohl der Region am Kaspischen Meer im Zuge von Energiediskursen große Aufmerksamkeit zuteil wird, stellen die innerstaatlichen Folgen der Ressourcenproduktion in der Region ein bislang vernachlässigtes Forschungsfeld dar. Ein systematischer Überblick über die jüngsten Forschungstrends zu wirtschaftlichen und politischen Kausalzusammenhängen des Ressourcenfluchs und zu Rentierstaaten offenbart die Notwendigkeit von Kontextanalysen. Hierauf Bezug nehmend, analysiert der Aufsatz sowohl die Mängel als auch viel versprechende Ansätze in der betreffenden Literatur zur Region am Kaspischen Meer. Der Aufsatz stellt letztendlich einen neuen Ansatz vor, der Unterschiede und Gemeinsamkeiten in den Kontextbedingungen erfasst, um zu erforschen, wie diese die gegenwärtigen post-sowjetischen Rentierstaaten in der Region am Kaspischen Meer tatsächlich prägen

A hybrid landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator for transition probabilities in partially non-Markov multi-state models

Multi-state models are increasingly being used to model complex epidemiological and clinical outcomes over time. It is common to assume that the models are Markov, but the assumption can often be unrealistic. The Markov assumption is seldomly checked and violations can lead to biased estimation of many parameters of interest. This is a well known problem for the standard Aalen-Johansen estimator of transition probabilities and several alternative estimators, not relying on the Markov assumption, have been suggested. A particularly simple approach known as landmarking have resulted in the Landmark-Aalen-Johansen estimator. Since landmarking is a stratification method a disadvantage of landmarking is data reduction, leading to a loss of power. This is problematic for "less traveled" transitions, and undesirable when such transitions indeed exhibit Markov behaviour. Introducing the concept of partially non-Markov multi-state models, we suggest a hybrid landmark Aalen-Johansen estimator for transition probabilities. We also show how non-Markov transitions can be identified using a testing procedure. The proposed estimator is a compromise between regular Aalen-Johansen and landmark estimation, using transition specific landmarking, and can drastically improve statistical power. We show that the proposed estimator is consistent, but that the traditional variance estimator can underestimate the variance of both the hybrid and landmark estimator. Bootstrapping is therefore recommended. The methods are compared in a simulation study and in a real data application using registry data to model individual transitions for a birth cohort of 184 951 Norwegian men between states of sick leave, disability, education, work and unemployment.Development and application of statistical models for medical scientific researc

Collaboration between general hospitals and community health services in the care of suicide attempters in Norway: a longitudinal study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>The aim of this paper was to study the collaboration between emergency departments (EDs) in general hospitals and community health services (CHS) in Norway when providing psychosocial care and aftercare to patients treated in EDs following a suicide attempt. We wanted to explore the extent to which quality indicators at the hospital level measured in 1999 and 2006 could predict the presence or absence of a chain of care structure in the CHS in 2006.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Data were collected through structured interviews with informants from 95% of all general hospitals in Norway in 1999 and 2006, and informants from CHS, in a stratified sample of Norwegian municipalities in 2006 (n = 47).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>In 15 of the 47 municipalities (32%), the CHS reported having a chain of care structure in 2006. A discriminant function analysis revealed that the hospitals that in 1999 had: (a) a collaboration agreement with aftercare providers, and (b) written guidelines, including a quality assurance system, were significantly more likely to have municipalities with a chain of care structure in their catchment area in 2006.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Hospitals' and municipalities' self-reported provision of aftercare services for patients treated after a suicide attempt was markedly below the recommendations given in national standards. Systems at the hospital level for the management and care of patients admitted after a suicide attempt and systematic collaboration between hospitals and aftercare providers seem to be important elements in the long-term maintenance of continuity of care for suicide attempters.</p

Top predators in relation to bathymetry, ice and krill during austral winter in Marguerite Bay, Antarctica

Author Posting. © Elsevier B.V., 2007. This is the author's version of the work. It is posted here by permission of Elsevier B.V. for personal use, not for redistribution. The definitive version was published in Deep Sea Research Part II: Topical Studies in Oceanography 55 (2008): 485-499, doi:10.1016/j.dsr2.2007.11.006.A key hypothesis guiding the U.S. Southern Ocean Global Ocean Ecosystems Dynamics (U.S. SO GLOBEC) program is that deep across-shelf troughs facilitate the transport of warm and nutrient-rich waters onto the continental shelf of the Western Antarctic Peninsula, resulting in enhanced winter production and prey availability to top predators. We tested aspects of this hypothesis during austral winter by assessing the distribution of the resident pack-ice top predators in relation to these deep across-shelf troughs and by investigating associations between top predators and their prey. Surveys were conducted July-August 2001 and August-September 2002 in Marguerite Bay, Antarctica, with a focus on the main across-shelf trough in the bay, Marguerite Trough. The common pack-ice seabird species were snow petrel (Pagodroma nivea, 1.2 individuals km-2), Antarctic petrel (Thalassoica antarctica, 0.3 individuals km-2), and Adélie penguin (Pygoscelis adeliae, 0.5 individuals km-2). The most common pack-ice pinniped was crabeater seal (Lobodon carcinophagus). During both winters, snow and Antarctic petrels were associated with low sea ice concentrations independent of Marguerite Trough, while Adélie penguins occurred in association with this trough. Krill concentrations, both shallow and deep, were also associated with Adélie penguin and snow petrel distributions. During both winters, crabeater seal occurrence was associated with deep krill concentrations and with regions of lower chlorophyll concentration. The area of lower chlorophyll concentrations occurred in an area with complex bathymetry close to land and heavy ice concentrations. Complex or unusual bathymetry via its influence on physical and biological processes appears to be one of the keys to understanding how top predators survive during the winter in this Antarctic region.This material is based upon work supported by the National Science Foundation under Grants No. OPP-9910096 (to C. Ribic), OPP-9910307 (to P. Wiebe), OPP-9632763, OPP-0120525, OPP-0217282 and OPP-0224727 (to W. Fraser), and a Fulbright Scholarship and Office of Naval Research Grant N00014-03-0212 (to G. Lawson)

Review on the validity of self-report to assess work-related diseases

Self-report is an efficient and accepted means of assessing population characteristics, risk factors, and diseases. Little is known on the validity of self-reported work-related illness as an indicator of the presence of a work-related disease. This study reviews the evidence on (1) the validity of workers' self-reported illness and (2) on the validity of workers' self-assessed work relatedness of an illness. A systematic literature search was conducted in four databases (Medline, Embase, PsycINFO and OSH-Update). Two reviewers independently performed the article selection and data extraction. The methodological quality of the studies was evaluated, levels of agreement and predictive values were rated against predefined criteria, and sources of heterogeneity were explored. In 32 studies, workers' self-reports of health conditions were compared with the "reference standard" of expert opinion. We found that agreement was mainly low to moderate. Self-assessed work relatedness of a health condition was examined in only four studies, showing low-to-moderate agreement with expert assessment. The health condition, type of questionnaire, and the case definitions for both self-report and reference standards influence the results of validation studies. Workers' self-reported illness may provide valuable information on the presence of disease, although the generalizability of the findings is limited primarily to musculoskeletal and skin disorders. For case finding in a population at risk, e.g., an active workers' health surveillance program, a sensitive symptom questionnaire with a follow-up by a medical examination may be the best choice. Evidence on the validity of self-assessed work relatedness of a health condition is scarce. Adding well-developed questions to a specific medical diagnosis exploring the relationship between symptoms and work may be a good strateg

Rural High North: A High Rate of Fatal Injury and Prehospital Death

Finnmark County is the northernmost county in Norway. For several decades, the rate of mortality after injury in this sparsely inhabited region has remained above the national average. Following documentation of this discrepancy for the period 1991–1995, improvements to the trauma system were implemented. The present study aims to assess whether trauma-related mortality rates have subsequently improved. All injury-associated fatalities in Finnmark from 1995–2004 were identified retrospectively from the National Registry of Death and reviewed. Low-energy trauma in elderly individuals and poisonings were excluded. A total of 453 cases of trauma-related death occurred during the study period, and 327 of those met the inclusion criteria. Information was retrievable for 266 cases. The majority of deaths (86%) occurred in the prehospital phase. The main causes of death were suicide (33%) and road traffic accidents (21%). Drowning and snowmobile injuries accounted for an unexpectedly high proportion (12 and 8%, respectively). The time of death did not show trimodal distribution. Compared to the previous study period, there was a significant overall decline in injury-related mortality, yet there was no change in place of death, mechanism of injury, or time from injury until death. Changes in injury-related mortality cannot be linked to improvements in the trauma system. There was no change in the epidemiological patterns of injury. The high rate of on-scene mortality indicates that any major improvement in the number of injury-related deaths lies in targeted prevention