From EM to Data Augmentation: The Emergence of MCMC Bayesian Computation in the 1980s

It was known from Metropolis et al. [J. Chem. Phys. 21 (1953) 1087--1092] that one can sample from a distribution by performing Monte Carlo simulation from a Markov chain whose equilibrium distribution is equal to the target distribution. However, it took several decades before the statistical community embraced Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) as a general computational tool in Bayesian inference. The usual reasons that are advanced to explain why statisticians were slow to catch on to the method include lack of computing power and unfamiliarity with the early dynamic Monte Carlo papers in the statistical physics literature. We argue that there was a deeper reason, namely, that the structure of problems in the statistical mechanics and those in the standard statistical literature are different. To make the methods usable in standard Bayesian problems, one had to exploit the power that comes from the introduction of judiciously chosen auxiliary variables and collective moves. This paper examines the development in the critical period 1980--1990, when the ideas of Markov chain simulation from the statistical physics literature and the latent variable formulation in maximum likelihood computation (i.e., EM algorithm) came together to spark the widespread application of MCMC methods in Bayesian computation.Comment: Published in at http://dx.doi.org/10.1214/10-STS341 the Statistical Science (http://www.imstat.org/sts/) by the Institute of Mathematical Statistics (http://www.imstat.org

Off-diagonal hyperfine interaction between the 6p1/2 and 6p3/2 levels in 133Cs

The off-diagonal hyperfine interaction between the 6p1/2 and 6p3/2 states in 133Cs is evaluated in third-order MBPT giving 37.3 Hz and 48.3 Hz, respectively, for second-order energies of the 6p3/2 F=3 and F=4 levels. This result is a factor of 10 smaller than one obtained from an uncorrelated first-order Dirac-Hartree-Fock calculation and used in the analysis of a recent high-precision (< 2 kHz) measurement of the 6p3/2 hyperfine structure [Gerginov et al. Phys. Rev. Lett. 91, 72301 (2003)]. The factor of 10 difference has negligible effect on the conclusions of the recent experiment but will become important for experiments carried out at a precision of better than 1 kHz

A linear systems analysis of the yaw dynamics of a dynamically scaled insect model

Recent studies suggest that fruit flies use subtle changes to their wing motion to actively generate forces during aerial maneuvers. In addition, it has been estimated that the passive rotational damping caused by the flapping wings of an insect is around two orders of magnitude greater than that for the body alone. At present, however, the relationships between the active regulation of wing kinematics, passive damping produced by the flapping wings and the overall trajectory of the animal are still poorly understood. In this study, we use a dynamically scaled robotic model equipped with a torque feedback mechanism to study the dynamics of yaw turns in the fruit fly Drosophila melanogaster. Four plausible mechanisms for the active generation of yaw torque are examined. The mechanisms deform the wing kinematics of hovering in order to introduce asymmetry that results in the active production of yaw torque by the flapping wings. The results demonstrate that the stroke-averaged yaw torque is well approximated by a model that is linear with respect to both the yaw velocity and the magnitude of the kinematic deformations. Dynamic measurements, in which the yaw torque produced by the flapping wings was used in real-time to determine the rotation of the robot, suggest that a first-order linear model with stroke-average coefficients accurately captures the yaw dynamics of the system. Finally, an analysis of the stroke-average dynamics suggests that both damping and inertia will be important factors during rapid body saccades of a fruit fly

Silicon Solar Cell Process Development, Fabrication and Analysis, Phase 1

Solar cells from RTR ribbons, EFG (RF and RH) ribbons, dendritic webs, Silso wafers, cast silicon by HEM, silicon on ceramic, and continuous Czochralski ingots were fabricated using a standard process typical of those used currently in the silicon solar cell industry. Back surface field (BSF) processing and other process modifications were included to give preliminary indications of possible improved performance. The parameters measured included open circuit voltage, short circuit current, curve fill factor, and conversion efficiency (all taken under AM0 illumination). Also measured for typical cells were spectral response, dark I-V characteristics, minority carrier diffusion length, and photoresponse by fine light spot scanning. the results were compared to the properties of cells made from conventional single crystalline Czochralski silicon with an emphasis on statistical evaluation. Limited efforts were made to identify growth defects which will influence solar cell performance

Investigation of the enhanced spatial density of submicron lunar ejecta between L values 1.2 and 3.0 in the earth's magnetosphere: Theory

Initial results from the measurement conducted by the dust particle experiment on the lunar orbiting satellite Lunar Explorer 35 (LE 35) were reported with the data interpreted as indicating that the moon is a significant source of micrometeroids. Primary sporadic and stream meteoroids impacting the surface of the moon at hypervelocity was proposed as the source of micron and submicron particles that leave the lunar craters with velocities sufficient to escape the moon's gravitational sphere of influence. No enhanced flux of lunar ejecta with masses greater than a nanogram was detected by LE 35 or the Lunar Orbiters. Hypervelocity meteoroid simulation experiments concentrating on ejecta production combined with extensive analyses of the orbital dynamics of micron and submicron lunar ejecta in selenocentric, cislunar, and geocentric space have shown that a pulse of these lunar ejecta, with a time correlation relative to the position of the moon relative to the earth, intercepts the earth's magnetopause surface (EMPs). As shown, a strong reason exists for expecting a significant enhancement of submicron dust particles in the region of the magnetosphere between L values of 1.2 and 3.0. This is the basis for the proposal of a series of experiments to investigate the enhancement or even trapping of submicron lunar ejecta in this region. The subsequent interaction of this mass with the upper-lower atmosphere of the earth and possible geophysical effects can then be studied

Factors affecting home delivery in rural Tanzania

BACKGROUND\ud \ud Studies of factors affecting place of delivery have rarely considered the influence of gender roles and relations within the household. This study combines an understanding of gender issues relating to health and help-seeking behaviour with epidemiological knowledge concerning place of delivery.\ud \ud METHODS\ud \ud In-depth interviews, focus group discussions and participant observation were used to explore determinants of home delivery in southern Tanzania. Quantitative data were collected in a cross-sectional survey of 21,600 randomly chosen households.\ud \ud RESULTS\ud \ud Issues of risk and vulnerability, such as lack of money, lack of transport, sudden onset of labour, short labour, staff attitudes, lack of privacy, tradition and cultures and the pattern of decision-making power within the household were perceived as key determinants of the place of delivery. More than 9000 women were interviewed about their most recent delivery in the quantitative survey. There were substantial variations between ethnic groups with respect to place of delivery (P<0.0001). Women who lived in male-headed households were less likely to deliver in a health facility than women in female-headed households (RR 0.86, 95% CI 0.80-0.91). Mothers with primary and higher education were more likely to deliver at a health facility (RR 1.30, 95% CI 1.23-1.38). Younger mothers and the least poor women were also more likely to deliver in a health facility compared with the older and the poorest women, respectively.\ud \ud CONCLUSIONS\ud \ud To address neonatal mortality, special attention should be paid to neonatal health in both maternal and child health programmes. The findings emphasize the need for a systematic approach to overcome health-system constraints, community based programmes and scale-up effective low-cost interventions which are already available

Frontiers of parasitology research in the People's Republic of China : infection, diagnosis, protection and surveillance

ABSTRACT: Control and eventual elimination of human parasitic diseases in the People's Republic of China (P.R. China) requires novel approaches, particularly in the areas of diagnostics, mathematical modelling, monitoring, evaluation, surveillance and public health response. A comprehensive effort, involving the collaboration of 188 scientists (<85% from P.R. China) from 48 different institutions and universities (80% from P.R. China), covers this collection of 29 articles published in Parasites & Vectors. The research mainly stems from a research project entitled 'Surveillance and diagnostic tools for major parasitic diseases in P.R. China' (grant no. 2008ZX10004-011) and highlights the frontiers of research in parasitology. The majority of articles in this thematic series deals with the most important parasitic diseases in P.R. China, emphasizing Schistosoma japonicum, Plasmodium vivax and Clonorchis sinensis plus some parasites of emerging importance such as Angiostrongylus cantonensis. Significant achievements have been made through the collaborative research programme in the following three fields: (i) development of control strategies for the national control programme; (ii) updating the surveillance data of parasitic infections both in human and animals; and (iii) improvement of existing, and development of novel, diagnostic tools to detect parasitic infections. The progress is considerable and warrants broad validation efforts. Combined with the development of improved tools for diagnosis and surveillance, integrated and multi-pronged control strategies now pave the way for elimination of parasitic diseases in P.R. China. Experiences and lessons learned can stimulate control and elimination efforts of parasitic diseases in other parts of the world

Magnetodielectric coupling of infrared phonons in single crystal Cu2_{2}OSeO3_{3}

Reflection and transmission as a function of temperature have been measured on a single crystal of the magnetoelectric ferrimagnetic compound Cu$_{2}$OSeO$_{3}$ utilizing light spanning the far infrared to the visible portions of the electromagnetic spectrum. The complex dielectric function and optical properties were obtained via Kramers-Kronig analysis and by fits to a Drude-Lortentz model. The fits of the infrared phonons show a magnetodielectric effect near the transition temperature ($T_{c}\sim 60$~K). Assignments to strong far infrared phonon modes have been made, especially those exhibiting anomalous behavior around the transition temperature