A multiple-imputation-based approach to sensitivity analyses and effectiveness assessments in longitudinal clinical trials.

It is important to understand the effects of a drug as actually taken (effectiveness) and when taken as directed (efficacy). The primary objective of this investigation was to assess the statistical performance of a method referred to as placebo multiple imputation (pMI) as an estimator of effectiveness and as a worst reasonable case sensitivity analysis in assessing efficacy. The pMI method assumes the statistical behavior of placebo- and drug-treated patients after dropout is the statistical behavior of placebo-treated patients. Thus, in the effectiveness context, pMI assumes no pharmacological benefit of the drug after dropout. In the efficacy context, pMI is a specific form of a missing not at random analysis expected to yield a conservative estimate of efficacy. In a simulation study with 18 scenarios, the pMI approach generally provided unbiased estimates of effectiveness and conservative estimates of efficacy. However, the confidence interval coverage was consistently greater than the nominal coverage rate. In contrast, last and baseline observation carried forward (LOCF and BOCF) were conservative in some scenarios and anti-conservative in others with respect to efficacy and effectiveness. As expected, direct likelihood (DL) and standard multiple imputation (MI) yielded unbiased estimates of efficacy and tended to overestimate effectiveness in those scenarios where a drug effect existed. However, in scenarios with no drug effect, and therefore where the true values for both efficacy and effectiveness were zero, DL and MI yielded unbiased estimates of efficacy and effectiveness

Patterns of domestication in the Ethiopian oil-seed crop noug (Guizotia abyssinica)

Noug (Guizotia abyssinica) is a semidomesticated oil-seed crop, which is primarily cultivated in Ethiopia. Unlike its closest crop relative, sunflower, noug has small seeds, small flowering heads, many branches, many flowering heads, and indeterminate flowering, and it shatters in the field. Here, we conducted common garden studies and microsatellite analyses of genetic variation to test whether high levels of crop–wild gene flow and/or unfavorable phenotypic correlations have hindered noug domestication. With the exception of one population, analyses of microsatellite variation failed to detect substantial recent admixture between noug and its wild progenitor. Likewise, only very weak correlations were found between seed mass and the number or size of flowering heads. Thus, noug's ‘atypical’ domestication syndrome does not seem to be a consequence of recent introgression or unfavorable phenotypic correlations. Nonetheless, our data do reveal evidence of local adaptation of noug cultivars to different precipitation regimes, as well as high levels of phenotypic plasticity, which may permit reasonable yields under diverse environmental conditions. Why noug has not been fully domesticated remains a mystery, but perhaps early farmers selected for resilience to episodic drought or untended environments rather than larger seeds. Domestication may also have been slowed by noug's outcrossing mating syste

The Toxicity of plant material, Drimia Altissima (Urginea Altissima), Against the Field Rat, Arvicanthis Abyssinicus: A potential non-synthetic rodenticide

Background: Rodents are important pests of public health and agricultural importance, capable of transmitting diseases to humans and causing crop damage. The present rodent control strategy depends primarily on synthetic rodenticides, which are highly toxic, affect non-target species, and are expensive. Naturally produced organic pesticides may be more desirable as they are less toxic to non-target animals and are  economically sustainable.Objective: The objective of the study is to explore the toxicity and palatability of the bulbs of Drimia altissima against the field rat, Arvicanthis abyssincus with the aim of developing locally based organic rodenticides.Method: This is a laboratory study for evaluating the toxicity of D. altissimia bait against the field rat, Arvicanthis abyssincus. In the study, field rats were randomly assigned to treatment and control groups. The treatment groups received different concentrations of D. altissimia poison bait prepared in the lab. The control groups received the plain bait. Mortality was recorded during the test period.Results: Of the treatment groups, 80%-100% of the rats receiving the poison bait died, while none of the rats offered a choice between the plain bait and the poisoned bait died. It is estimated that 8% of the powdered bulb would produce 50% mortality.Conclusion: The powdered bulb of D. altissima resulted in rat mortality in the test but not in the control group. The liberation of the toxic substance from the poisoned bait might have been slowed by the presence of the plain bait in the choice test. The result of this study suggests that further work is needed for understanding the toxicological properties of the active agents in the bulb

The burden of neglected tropical diseases in Ethiopia, and opportunities for integrated control and elimination

Background: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) are a group of chronic parasitic diseases and related conditions that are the most common diseases among the 2·7 billion people globally living on less than US$2 per day. In response to the growing challenge of NTDs, Ethiopia is preparing to launch a NTD Master Plan. The purpose of this review is to underscore the burden of NTDs in Ethiopia, highlight the state of current interventions, and suggest ways forward. Results: This review indicates that NTDs are significant public health problems in Ethiopia. From the analysis reported here, Ethiopia stands out for having the largest number of NTD cases following Nigeria and the Democratic Republic of Congo. Ethiopia is estimated to have the highest burden of trachoma, podoconiosis and cutaneous leishmaniasis in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), the second highest burden in terms of ascariasis, leprosy and visceral leishmaniasis, and the third highest burden of hookworm. Infections such as schistosomiasis, trichuriasis, lymphatic filariasis and rabies are also common. A third of Ethiopians are infected with ascariasis, one quarter is infected with trichuriasis and one in eight Ethiopians lives with hookworm or is infected with trachoma. However, despite these high burdens of infection, the control of most NTDs in Ethiopia is in its infancy. In terms of NTD control achievements, Ethiopia reached the leprosy elimination target of 1 case/10,000 population in 1999. No cases of human African trypanosomiasis have been reported since 1984. Guinea worm eradication is in its final phase. The Onchocerciasis Control Program has been making steady progress since 2001. A national blindness survey was conducted in 2006 and the trachoma program has kicked off in some regions. Lymphatic Filariasis, podoconiosis and rabies mapping are underway. Conclusion: Ethiopia bears a significant burden of NTDs compared to other SSA countries. To achieve success in integrated control of NTDs, integrated mapping, rapid scale up of interventions and operational research into co implementation of intervention packages will be crucial

The 14-bp deletion polymorphism in the HLA-G gene displays significant differences between ulcerative colitis and Crohn's disease and is associated with ileocecal resection in Crohn's disease

HLA-G is a non-classical MHC class Ib molecule predominantly expressed in cytotrophoblasts and under pathological conditions also in chronically inflamed and in malignant tissues. Recently an increased expression of HLA-G was found in ulcerative colitis (UC), but not in Crohn's disease (CD). The HLA-G gene is located in IBD3, a linkage region for inflammatory bowel disease (IBD). A 14-bp deletion polymorphism (Del+/Del−) within exon 8 of the HLA-G gene might influence transcription activity and is therefore of potential functional relevance. To investigate whether the 14-bp deletion polymorphism is associated with IBD, 371 patients with CD, 257 patients with UC and 739 controls were genotyped. The heterozygous genotype (P = 0.031) and the Del+ phenotype (P = 0.038) were significantly increased, whereas the homozygous Del− phenotype (P = 0.038) was significantly decreased in UC when compared with CD. Thus, the 14-bp deletion polymorphism within the HLA-G gene displayed significant differences between UC and CD. Moreover, a significant increase of the Del+ allele (P = 0.002) and the Del+/Del+ genotype (P = 0.013) and a consecutive decrease of the Del−/− genotype (P = 0.024) were observed in those CD cases positive for ileocecal resection. Thus, a potential effect of the HLA-G gene in IBD may affect both UC and CD. Other polymorphisms linked to the 14-bp deletion polymorphism might also contribute to immunopathogenesis. As there are several partly functional polymorphisms within the promoter region potentially influencing HLA-G expression, further studies in IBD are necessary in the context of differential expression of HLA-G between UC and C

Empowerment and Tech Adoption: Introducing the Treadle Pump Triggers Farmers’ Innovation in Eastern Ethiopia

In 2013, thirty-eight treadle pumps (TPs) were installed as low-cost technology introduction for small-scale irrigation in eastern Ethiopia. This pilot project also trained six farmers on tube well excavation, as well as the installation and maintenance of pumps. In June 2015, researchers visited nine of the thirty-eight TP villages and found only two TPs functioning as originally installed. The rest were replaced with a new technology developed by the trained farmers. Farmers, empowered by training, gained more control in developing technology options tailored to local needs and conditions of their communities. Adopters of the new technology stated that the limited water output and high labor demand of the conventional TP did not optimally fulfil their irrigation water requirements. The new technology had spread quickly to more than one hundred households due to three key factors. First, farmers’ innovative modifications of the initial excavation technique addressed the discharge limitations of the conventional TP by excavating boreholes with wider diameter. Second, local ownership of the new technology, including skills used in well drilling and manufacturing excavation implements, made the modified irrigation technology affordable and accessible to the majority of households. Third, this innovation spread organically without any external support, confirming its sustainability

Incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia from 1990 to 2015: analysis of the global burden of diseases 2015

Background: In Ethiopia there is no complete registration system to measure disease burden and risk factors accurately. In this study, the 2015 Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries and Risk factors (GBD) data were used to analyse the incidence, prevalence and mortality rates of malaria in Ethiopia over the last 25 years. Methods: GBD 2015 used verbal autopsy (VA) surveys, reports, and published scientific articles to estimate the burden of malaria in Ethiopia. Age and gender-specific causes of death for malaria were estimated using Cause of Death Ensemble Modelling (CODEm). Results: The number of new cases of malaria declined from 2.8 million (95% uncertainty interval (UI): 1.4-4.5million) in 1990 to 621,345 (95% UI: 462,230-797,442) in 2015. Malaria caused an estimated 30,323.9 deaths (95% UI: 11,533.3-61,215.3) in 1990 and 1,561.7 deaths (95% UI: 752.8-2,660.5) in 2015, a 94.8% reduction over the 25 years. Age-standardized mortality rate of malaria has declined by 96.5% between 1990 and 2015 with an annual rate of change (ARC) of 13.4%. Age-standardized malaria incidence rate among all ages and gender declined by 88.7% between 1990 and 2015. The number of disability-adjusted life years lost (DALY) due to malaria decreased from 2.2 million (95% UI: 0.76-4.7 million) in 1990 to 0.18 million (95% UI: 0.12-0.26 million) in 2015, with a total reduction 91.7%. Similarly, age-standardized DALY rate declined by 94.8% during the same period. Conclusions: Ethiopia has achieved a 50% reduction target of malaria of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). The country should strengthen its malaria control and treatment strategies to achieve the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG)

Global, regional, and national burden of chronic kidney disease, 1990–2017 : a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2017

Background Health system planning requires careful assessment of chronic kidney disease (CKD) epidemiology, but data for morbidity and mortality of this disease are scarce or non-existent in many countries. We estimated the global, regional, and national burden of CKD, as well as the burden of cardiovascular disease and gout attributable to impaired kidney function, for the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2017. We use the term CKD to refer to the morbidity and mortality that can be directly attributed to all stages of CKD, and we use the term impaired kidney function to refer to the additional risk of CKD from cardiovascular disease and gout. Methods The main data sources we used were published literature, vital registration systems, end-stage kidney disease registries, and household surveys. Estimates of CKD burden were produced using a Cause of Death Ensemble model and a Bayesian meta-regression analytical tool, and included incidence, prevalence, years lived with disability, mortality, years of life lost, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). A comparative risk assessment approach was used to estimate the proportion of cardiovascular diseases and gout burden attributable to impaired kidney function. Findings Globally, in 2017, 1·2 million (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 1·2 to 1·3) people died from CKD. The global all-age mortality rate from CKD increased 41·5% (95% UI 35·2 to 46·5) between 1990 and 2017, although there was no significant change in the age-standardised mortality rate (2·8%, −1·5 to 6·3). In 2017, 697·5 million (95% UI 649·2 to 752·0) cases of all-stage CKD were recorded, for a global prevalence of 9·1% (8·5 to 9·8). The global all-age prevalence of CKD increased 29·3% (95% UI 26·4 to 32·6) since 1990, whereas the age-standardised prevalence remained stable (1·2%, −1·1 to 3·5). CKD resulted in 35·8 million (95% UI 33·7 to 38·0) DALYs in 2017, with diabetic nephropathy accounting for almost a third of DALYs. Most of the burden of CKD was concentrated in the three lowest quintiles of Socio-demographic Index (SDI). In several regions, particularly Oceania, sub-Saharan Africa, and Latin America, the burden of CKD was much higher than expected for the level of development, whereas the disease burden in western, eastern, and central sub-Saharan Africa, east Asia, south Asia, central and eastern Europe, Australasia, and western Europe was lower than expected. 1·4 million (95% UI 1·2 to 1·6) cardiovascular disease-related deaths and 25·3 million (22·2 to 28·9) cardiovascular disease DALYs were attributable to impaired kidney function. Interpretation Kidney disease has a major effect on global health, both as a direct cause of global morbidity and mortality and as an important risk factor for cardiovascular disease. CKD is largely preventable and treatable and deserves greater attention in global health policy decision making, particularly in locations with low and middle SDI

The outcome of trachomatous trichiasis surgery in Ethiopia: risk factors for recurrence.

BACKGROUND: Over 1.2 million people are blind from trachomatous trichiasis (TT). Lid rotation surgery is the mainstay of treatment, but recurrence rates can be high. We investigated the outcomes (recurrence rates and other complications) of posterior lamellar tarsal rotation (PLTR) surgery, one of the two most widely practised TT procedures in endemic settings. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: We conducted a two-year follow-up study of 1300 participants who had PLTR surgery, conducted by one of five TT nurse surgeons. None had previously undergone TT surgery. All participants received a detailed trachoma eye examination at baseline and 6, 12, 18 and 24 months post-operatively. The study investigated the recurrence rates, other complications and factors associated with recurrence. Recurrence occurred in 207/635 (32.6%) and 108/641 (16.9%) of participants with pre-operative major (>5 trichiatic lashes) and minor (5 lashes (major recurrence). Recurrence was greatest in the first six months after surgery: 172 cases (55%) occurring in this period. Recurrence was associated with major TT pre-operatively (OR 2.39, 95% CI 1.83-3.11), pre-operative entropic lashes compared to misdirected/metaplastic lashes (OR 1.99, 95% CI 1.23-3.20), age over 40 years (OR 1.59, 95% CI 1.14-2.20) and specific surgeons (surgeon recurrence risk range: 18%-53%). Granuloma occurred in 69 (5.7%) and notching in 156 (13.0%). CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: Risk of recurrence is high despite high volume, highly trained surgeons. However, the vast majority are minor recurrences, which may not have significant corneal or visual consequences. Inter-surgeon variation in recurrence is concerning; surgical technique, training and immediate post-operative lid position require further investigation

Photoperiod-dependent developmental reprogramming of the transcriptional response to seawater entry in Atlantic salmon (Salmo salar)

Acknowledgments We would like to extend our thanks the skilled employees at TARS, and to Dr. Chandra S. Ravuri who assisted with sample processing. Funding We thank The Research Council of Norway for funding (project number 241016).Peer reviewedPublisher PD