Volatility term structures in commodity markets

In this study, we comprehensively examine the volatility term structures in commodity markets. We model state‐dependent spillovers in principal components (PCs) of the volatility term structures of different commodities, as well as that of the equity market. We detect strong economic links and a substantial interconnectedness of the volatility term structures of commodities. Accounting for intra‐commodity‐market spillovers significantly improves out‐of‐sample forecasts of the components of the volatility term structure. Spillovers following macroeconomic news announcements account for a large proportion of this forecast power. There thus seems to be substantial information transmission between different commodity markets

Radiative corrections to the semileptonic and hadronic Higgs-boson decays H -> W W/Z Z -> 4 fermions

The radiative corrections of the strong and electroweak interactions are calculated for the Higgs-boson decays H -> WW/ZZ -> 4f with semileptonic or hadronic four-fermion final states in next-to-leading order. This calculation is improved by higher-order corrections originating from heavy-Higgs-boson effects and photonic final-state radiation off charged leptons. The W- and Z-boson resonances are treated within the complex-mass scheme, i.e. without any resonance expansion or on-shell approximation. The calculation essentially follows our previous study of purely leptonic final states. The electroweak corrections are similar for all four-fermion final states; for integrated quantities they amount to some per cent and increase with growing Higgs-boson mass M_H, reaching 7-8% at M_H \sim 500 GeV. For distributions, the corrections are somewhat larger and, in general, distort the shapes. Among the QCD corrections, which include corrections to interference contributions of the Born diagrams, only the corrections to the squared Born diagrams turn out to be relevant. These contributions can be attributed to the gauge-boson decays, i.e. they approximately amount to \alpha_s/\pi for semileptonic final states and 2\alpha_s/\pi for hadronic final states. The discussed corrections have been implemented in the Monte Carlo event generator PROPHECY4F.Comment: 29 pages, LaTeX, 30 postscript figure

Updated Constraints on the Minimal Supergravity Model

Recently, refinements have been made on both the theoretical and experimental determinations of the i.) mass of the lightest Higgs scalar (m_h), ii.) relic density of cold dark matter in the universe (Omega_CDM h^2), iii.) branching fraction for radiative B decay BF(b \to s \gamma), iv.) muon anomalous magnetic moment (a_\mu), and v.) flavor violating decay B_s \to \mu^+\mu^-. Each of these quantities can be predicted in the MSSM, and each depends in a non-trivial way on the spectra of SUSY particles. In this paper, we present updated constraints from each of these quantities on the minimal supergravity (mSUGRA) model as embedded in the computer program ISAJET. The combination of constraints points to certain favored regions of model parameter space where collider and non-accelerator SUSY searches may be more focussed.Comment: 20 pages, 6 figures. Version published in JHE

Prevalence and correlates of use of complementary and alternative medicine in children with autism spectrum disorder in Europe

This study examined the prevalence and correlates of use of complementary and alternative medicine (CAM) among a sample of children with autism spectrum disorder (ASD) < 7 years in 18 European countries (N = 1,680). Forty-seven percent of parents reported having tried any CAM approach in the past 6 months. Diets and supplements were used by 25 % of the sample and mind-body practices by 24 %; other unconventional approaches were used by 25 % of the families, and a minority of parents reported having tried any invasive or potentially harmful approach (2 %). Parents in Eastern Europe reported significantly higher rates of CAM use. In the total sample, children with lower verbal ability and children using prescribed medications were more likely to be receiving diets or supplements. Concurrent use of high levels of conventional psychosocial intervention was significantly associated with use of mind-body practices. Higher parental educational level also increased the likelihood of both use of diets and supplements and use of mind-body practices. Conclusion: The high prevalence of CAM use among a sample of young children with ASD is an indication that parents need to be supported in the choice of treatments early on in the assessment process, particularly in some parts of Europe

Integrating Species Traits into Species Pools

Despite decades of research on the species‐pool concept and the recent explosion of interest in trait‐based frameworks in ecology and biogeography, surprisingly little is known about how spatial and temporal changes in species‐pool functional diversity (SPFD) influence biodiversity and the processes underlying community assembly. Current trait‐based frameworks focus primarily on community assembly from a static regional species pool, without considering how spatial or temporal variation in SPFD alters the relative importance of deterministic and stochastic assembly processes. Likewise, species‐pool concepts primarily focus on how the number of species in the species pool influences local biodiversity. However, species pools with similar richness can vary substantially in functional‐trait diversity, which can strongly influence community assembly and biodiversity responses to environmental change. Here, we integrate recent advances in community ecology, trait‐based ecology, and biogeography to provide a more comprehensive framework that explicitly considers how variation in SPFD, among regions and within regions through time, influences the relative importance of community assembly processes and patterns of biodiversity. First, we provide a brief overview of the primary ecological and evolutionary processes that create differences in SPFD among regions and within regions through time. We then illustrate how SPFD may influence fundamental processes of local community assembly (dispersal, ecological drift, niche selection). Higher SPFD may increase the relative importance of deterministic community assembly when greater functional diversity in the species pool increases niche selection across environmental gradients. In contrast, lower SPFD may increase the relative importance of stochastic community assembly when high functional redundancy in the species pool increases the influence of dispersal history or ecological drift. Next, we outline experimental and observational approaches for testing the influence of SPFD on assembly processes and biodiversity. Finally, we highlight applications of this framework for restoration and conservation. This species‐pool functional diversity framework has the potential to advance our understanding of how local‐ and regional‐scale processes jointly influence patterns of biodiversity across biogeographic regions, changes in biodiversity within regions over time, and restoration outcomes and conservation efforts in ecosystems altered by environmental change

Present status and future prospects for a Higgs boson discovery at the Tevatron and LHC

Discovering the Higgs boson is one of the primary goals of both the Tevatron and the Large Hadron Collider (LHC). The present status of the Higgs search is reviewed and future prospects for discovery at the Tevatron and LHC are considered. This talk focuses primarily on the Higgs boson of the Standard Model and its minimal supersymmetric extension. Theoretical expectations for the Higgs boson and its phenomenological consequences are reviewed.Comment: 13 pages, 9 figures, 2 tables, jpconf documentclass file, invited talk at PASCOS 2010, the 16th International Symposium on Particles, Strings and Cosmology, Valencia, Spain, 19--23 July 201

Stochastic Transition between Turbulent Branch and Thermodynamic Branch of an Inhomogeneous Plasma

Transition phenomena between thermodynamic branch and turbulent branch in submarginal turbulent plasma are analyzed with statistical theory. Time-development of turbulent fluctuation is obtained by numerical simulations of Langevin equation which contains submarginal characteristics. Probability density functions and transition rates between two states are analyzed. Transition from turbulent branch to thermodynamic branch occurs in almost entire region between subcritical bifurcation point and linear stability boundary.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures, to be published in J. Phys. Soc. Jp

The SKA view of the Neutral Interstellar Medium in Galaxies

Two major questions in galaxy evolution are how star-formation on small scales leads to global scaling laws and how galaxies acquire sufficient gas to sustain their star formation rates. HI observations with high angular resolution and with sensitivity to very low column densities are some of the important observational ingredients that are currently still missing. Answers to these questions are necessary for a correct interpretation of observations of galaxy evolution in the high-redshift universe and will provide crucial input for the sub-grid physics in hydrodynamical simulations of galaxy evolutions. In this chapter we discuss the progress that will be made with the SKA using targeted observations of nearby individual disk and dwarf galaxies.Comment: 22 pages, 4 figures, to appear as part of 'Neutral Hydrogen' in Proceedings 'Advancing Astrophysics with the SKA (AASKA14)', PoS(AASKA14)12

Constraining Supersymmetry

We review constraints on the minimal supersymmetric extension of the Standard Model (MSSM) coming from direct searches at accelerators such as LEP, indirect measurements such as b -> s gamma decay and the anomalous magnetic moment of the muon. The recently corrected sign of pole light-by-light scattering contributions to the latter is taken into account. We combine these constraints with those due to the cosmological density of stable supersymmetric relic particles. The possible indications on the supersymmetric mass scale provided by fine-tuning arguments are reviewed critically. We discuss briefly the prospects for future accelerator searches for supersymmetry.Comment: 21 LaTeX pages, 9 eps figures, Invited Contribution to the New Journal of Physics Focus Issue on Supersymmetr

Combined LHC/ILC analysis of a SUSY scenario with heavy sfermions

We discuss the potential of combined analyses at the Large Hadron Collider and the planned International Linear Collider to explore low-energy supersymmetry in a difficult region of the parameter space characterized by masses of the scalar SUSY particles around 2 TeV. Precision analyses of cross sections for light chargino production and forward--backward asymmetries of decay leptons and hadrons at the ILC, together with mass information on chi^0_2 and squarks from the LHC, allow us to determine the underlying fundamental gaugino/higgsino MSSM parameters and to constrain the masses of the heavy, kinematically inaccessible sparticles. No assumptions on a specific SUSY-breaking mechanism are imposed. For this analysis the complete spin correlations between production and decay processes are taken into account.Comment: new figure added, updated to match the published versio