Assessment of evolution and risks of glacier lake outbursts in the Djungarskiy Alatau, Central Asia, using Landsat imagery and glacier bed topography modelling

Changes in the abundance and area of mountain lakes in the Djungarskiy (Jetysu) Alatau between 2002 and 2014 were investigated using Landsat imagery. The number of lakes increased by 6.2 % from 599 to 636 with a growth rate of 0.51 % a−1. The combined areas were 16.26 ± 0.85 to 17.35 ± 0.92 km2 respectively and the overall change was within the uncertainty of measurements. Fifty lakes, whose potential outburst can damage existing infrastructure, were identified. The glacier bed topography version 2 (GlabTop2) model was applied to simulate ice thickness and subglacial topography using glacier outlines for 2000 and SRTM DEM (Shuttle Radar Topography Mission digital elevation model) as input data achieving realistic patterns of ice thickness. A total of 513 overdeepenings in the modelled glacier beds, presenting potential sites for the development of lakes, were identified with a combined area of 14.7 km2. Morphometric parameters of the modelled overdeepenings were close to those of the existing lakes. A comparison of locations of the overdeepenings and newly formed lakes in the areas de-glacierized in 2000–2014 showed that 67 % of the lakes developed at the sites of the overdeepenings. The rates of increase in areas of new lakes correlated with areas of modelled overdeepenings. Locations where hazardous lakes may develop in the future were identified. The GlabTop2 approach is shown to be a useful tool in hazard management providing data on the potential evolution of future lakes

A daily, 1 km resolution data set of downscaled Greenland ice sheet surface mass balance (1958–2015)

This study presents a data set of daily, 1 km resolution Greenland ice sheet (GrIS) surface mass balance (SMB) covering the period 1958–2015. Applying corrections for elevation, bare ice albedo and accumulation bias, the high-resolution product is statistically downscaled from the native daily output of the polar regional climate model RACMO2.3 at 11 km. The data set includes all individual SMB components projected to a down-sampled version of the Greenland Ice Mapping Project (GIMP) digital elevation model and ice mask. The 1 km mask better resolves narrow ablation zones, valley glaciers, fjords and disconnected ice caps. Relative to the 11 km product, the more detailed representation of isolated glaciated areas leads to increased precipitation over the southeastern GrIS. In addition, the downscaled product shows a significant increase in runoff owing to better resolved low-lying marginal glaciated regions. The combined corrections for elevation and bare ice albedo markedly improve model agreement with a newly compiled data set of ablation measurements

Modelling glacier-bed overdeepenings and possible future lakes for the glaciers in the Himalaya—Karakoram region

Surface digital elevation models (DEMs) and slope-related estimates of glacier thickness enable modelling of glacier-bed topographies over large ice-covered areas. Due to the erosive power of glaciers, such bed topographies can contain numerous overdeepenings, which when exposed following glacier retreat may fill with water and form new lakes. In this study, the bed overdeepenings for ~28 000 glaciers (40 775 km²) of the Himalaya-Karakoram region are modelled using GlabTop2 (Glacier Bed Topography model version 2), in which ice thickness is inferred from surface slope by parameterizing basal shear stress as a function of elevation range for each glacier. The modelled ice thicknesses are uncertain (±30%), but spatial patterns of ice thickness and bed elevation primarily depend on surface slopes as derived from the DEM and, hence, are more robust. About 16 000 overdeepenings larger than 10⁴m² were detected in the modelled glacier beds, covering an area of ~2200 km² and having a volume of ~120km³ (3-4% of present-day glacier volume). About 5000 of these overdeepenings (1800 km²) have a volume larger than 10⁶m³. The results presented here are useful for anticipating landscape evolution and potential future lake formation with associated opportunities (tourism, hydropower) and risks (lake outbursts)

Estimating the volume of glaciers in the Himalayan–Karakoram region using different methods

Ice volume estimates are crucial for assessing water reserves stored in glaciers. Due to its large glacier coverage, such estimates are of particular interest for the Himalayan–Karakoram (HK) region. In this study, different existing methodologies are used to estimate the ice reserves: three area–volume relations, one slope-dependent volume estimation method, and two ice-thickness distribution models are applied to a recent, detailed, and complete glacier inventory of the HK region, spanning over the period 2000–2010 and revealing an ice coverage of 40 775 km2. An uncertainty and sensitivity assessment is performed to investigate the influence of the observed glacier area and important model parameters on the resulting total ice volume. Results of the two ice-thickness distribution models are validated with local ice-thickness measurements at six glaciers. The resulting ice volumes for the entire HK region range from 2955 to 4737 km3, depending on the approach. This range is lower than most previous estimates. Results from the ice thickness distribution models and the slope-dependent thickness estimations agree well with measured local ice thicknesses. However, total volume estimates from area-related relations are larger than those from other approaches. The study provides evidence on the significant effect of the selected method on results and underlines the importance of a careful and critical evaluation

Re-establishing glacier monitoring in Kyrgyzstan and Uzbekistan, Central Asia

Glacier mass loss is among the clearest indicators of atmospheric warming. The observation of these changes is one of the major objectives of the international climate monitoring strategy developed by the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS). Long-term glacier mass balance measurements are furthermore the basis for calibrating and validating models simulating future runoff of glacierised catchments. This is essential for Central Asia, which is one of the driest continental regions of the Northern Hemisphere. In the highly populated regions, water shortage due to decreased glacierisation potentially leads to pronounced political instability, drastic ecological changes and endangered food security. As a consequence of the collapse of the former Soviet Union, however, many valuable glacier monitoring sites in the Tien Shan and Pamir Mountains were abandoned. In recent years, multinational actors have re-established a set of important in situ measuring sites to continue the invaluable long-term data series. This paper introduces the applied monitoring strategy for selected glaciers in the Kyrgyz and Uzbek Tien Shan and Pamir, highlights the existing and the new measurements on these glaciers, and presents an example for how the old and new data can be combined to establish multi-decadal mass balance time series. This is crucial for understanding the impact of climate change on glaciers in this region

Changes in Greenland’s peripheral glaciers linked to the North Atlantic Oscillation

Glaciers and ice caps peripheral to the main Greenland Ice Sheet contribute markedly to sea-level rise1,2,3. Their changes and variability, however, have been difficult to quantify on multi-decadal timescales due to an absence of long-term data4. Here, using historical aerial surveys, expedition photographs, spy satellite imagery and new remote-sensing products, we map glacier length fluctuations of approximately 350 peripheral glaciers and ice caps in East and West Greenland since 1890. Peripheral glaciers are found to have recently undergone a widespread and significant retreat at rates of 12.2 m per year and 16.6 m per year in East and West Greenland, respectively; these changes are exceeded in severity only by the early twentieth century post-Little-Ice-Age retreat. Regional changes in ice volume, as reflected by glacier length, are further shown to be related to changes in precipitation associated with the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), with a distinct east–west asymmetry; positive phases of the NAO increase accumulation, and thereby glacier growth, in the eastern periphery, whereas opposite effects are observed in the western periphery. Thus, with projected trends towards positive NAO in the future5,6, eastern peripheral glaciers may remain relatively stable, while western peripheral glaciers will continue to diminish

The future sea-level rise contribution of Greenland’s glaciers and ice caps

We calculate the future sea-level rise contribution from the surface mass balance of all of Greenland's glaciers and ice caps (GICs, ~90 000 km2) using a simplified energy balance model which is driven by three future climate scenarios from the regional climate models HIRHAM5, RACMO2 and MAR. Glacier extent and surface elevation are modified during the mass balance model runs according to a glacier retreat parameterization. Mass balance and glacier surface change are both calculated on a 250 m resolution digital elevation model yielding a high level of detail and ensuring that important feedback mechanisms are considered. The mass loss of all GICs by 2098 is calculated to be 2016 ± 129 Gt (HIRHAM5 forcing), 2584 ± 109 Gt (RACMO2) and 3907 ± 108 Gt (MAR). This corresponds to a total contribution to sea-level rise of 5.8 ± 0.4, 7.4 ± 0.3 and 11.2 ± 0.3 mm, respectively. Sensitivity experiments suggest that mass loss could be higher by 20–30% if a strong lowering of the surface albedo were to take place in the future. It is shown that the sea-level rise contribution from the north-easterly regions of Greenland is reduced by increasing precipitation while mass loss in the southern half of Greenland is dominated by steadily decreasing summer mass balances. In addition we observe glaciers in the north-eastern part of Greenland changing their characteristics towards greater activity and mass turnover

Greenland surface mass-balance observations from the ice-sheet ablation area and local glaciers

Glacier surface mass-balance measurements on Greenland started more than a century ago, but no compilation exists of the observations from the ablation area of the ice sheet and local glaciers. Such data could be used in the evaluation of modelled surface mass balance, or to document changes in glacier melt independently from model output. Here, we present a comprehensive database of Greenland glacier surface mass-balance observations from the ablation area of the ice sheet and local glaciers. The database spans the 123 a from 1892 to 2015, contains a total of similar to 3000 measurements from 46 sites, and is openly accessible through the PROMICE web portal (http://www.promice.dk). For each measurement we provide X, Y and Z coordinates, starting and ending dates as well as quality flags. We give sources for each entry and for all metadata. Two thirds of the data were collected from grey literature and unpublished archive documents. Roughly 60% of the measurements were performed by the Geological Survey of Denmark and Greenland (GEUS, previously GGU). The data cover all regions of Greenland except for the southernmost part of the east coast, but also emphasize the importance of long-term time series of which there are only two exceeding 20 a. We use the data to analyse uncertainties in point measurements of surface mass balance, as well as to estimate surface mass-balance profiles for most regions of Greenland

Modeling past and future surface mass balance of the Northern Patagonia Icefield

Glaciers are strongly retreating and thinning in Patagonia. We present new inferences about the climatic situation and the surface mass balance on the Northern Patagonia Icefield in the past and the future using a combined modeling approach. The simulations are driven by NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis and ECHAM5 data, which were physically downscaled using the Weather Research and Forecasting regional climate model and simple sub-grid parameterizations. The surface mass balance model was calibrated with geodetic mass balance data of three large non-calving glaciers and with point mass balance measurements. An increase of accumulation on the Northern Patagonia Icefield was detected from 1990–2011 as compared to 1975–1990. Using geodetic mass balance data, calving losses from the Northern Patagonia Icefield could be inferred, which doubled in 2000–2009 as compared to 1975–2000. The 21st century projection of future mass balance of the Northern Patagonia Icefield shows a strong increase in ablation from 2050 and a reduction of solid precipitation from 2080, both due to higher temperatures. The total mass loss in the 21st century is estimated to be 592±50 Gt with strongly increasing rates towards the end of the century. The prediction of the future mass balance of the Northern Patagonia Icefield includes several additional sources of errors due to uncertainties in the prediction of future climate and due to possible variations in ice dynamics, which might modify the geometry of the icefield and change the rate of mass losses due to calving

Recent Advances in Our Understanding of the Role of Meltwater in the Greenland Ice Sheet System

Nienow, Sole and Cowton’s Greenland research has been supported by a number of UK NERC research grants (NER/O/S/2003/00620; NE/F021399/1; NE/H024964/1; NE/K015249/1; NE/K014609/1) and Slater has been supported by a NERC PhD studentshipPurpose of the review:  This review discusses the role that meltwater plays within the Greenland ice sheet system. The ice sheet’s hydrology is important because it affects mass balance through its impact on meltwater runoff processes and ice dynamics. The review considers recent advances in our understanding of the storage and routing of water through the supraglacial, englacial, and subglacial components of the system and their implications for the ice sheet Recent findings:   There have been dramatic increases in surface meltwater generation and runoff since the early 1990s, both due to increased air temperatures and decreasing surface albedo. Processes in the subglacial drainage system have similarities to valley glaciers and in a warming climate, the efficiency of meltwater routing to the ice sheet margin is likely to increase. The behaviour of the subglacial drainage system appears to limit the impact of increased surface melt on annual rates of ice motion, in sections of the ice sheet that terminate on land, while the large volumes of meltwater routed subglacially deliver significant volumes of sediment and nutrients to downstream ecosystems. Summary:  Considerable advances have been made recently in our understanding of Greenland ice sheet hydrology and its wider influences. Nevertheless, critical gaps persist both in our understanding of hydrology-dynamics coupling, notably at tidewater glaciers, and in runoff processes which ensure that projecting Greenland’s future mass balance remains challenging.Publisher PDFPeer reviewe