A nonlinear updating algorithm captures suboptimal inference in the presence of signal-dependent noise

Bayesian models have advanced the idea that humans combine prior beliefs and sensory observations to optimize behavior. How the brain implements Bayes-optimal inference, however, remains poorly understood. Simple behavioral tasks suggest that the brain can flexibly represent probability distributions. An alternative view is that the brain relies on simple algorithms that can implement Bayes-optimal behavior only when the computational demands are low. To distinguish between these alternatives, we devised a task in which Bayes-optimal performance could not be matched by simple algorithms. We asked subjects to estimate and reproduce a time interval by combining prior information with one or two sequential measurements. In the domain of time, measurement noise increases with duration. This property takes the integration of multiple measurements beyond the reach of simple algorithms. We found that subjects were able to update their estimates using the second measurement but their performance was suboptimal, suggesting that they were unable to update full probability distributions. Instead, subjects’ behavior was consistent with an algorithm that predicts upcoming sensory signals, and applies a nonlinear function to errors in prediction to update estimates. These results indicate that the inference strategies employed by humans may deviate from Bayes-optimal integration when the computational demands are high

Оцінка оновлення основних засобів за рахунок позикових коштів

Оновлення основних засобів є актуальною проблемою сьогодення. Для багатьох підприємств кредити банків є чи не єдиним джерелом коштів на модернізацію виробничих потужностей. В даній статті нами були розглянуті можливості і перспективи приватних фірм для використання з цією метою позикових засобів, оцінений ступінь прозорості банківських установ, річні ставки за інвестиційними кредитами та інші умови їхнього надання.Modernizing of the basic assets is a topical problem of the present. For many business firms bank loans are may be the only source of funds for renewal of production facilities. In the article we have considered the opportunities and prospects for use of borrowed funds by private firms for this purpose, rated the degree of transparency of banking institutions, the annual rates of investment credits and other conditions of their granting

Impact of clinical phenotypes on management and outcomes in European atrial fibrillation patients: a report from the ESC-EHRA EURObservational Research Programme in AF (EORP-AF) General Long-Term Registry

Background: Epidemiological studies in atrial fibrillation (AF) illustrate that clinical complexity increase the risk of major adverse outcomes. We aimed to describe European AF patients\u2019 clinical phenotypes and analyse the differential clinical course. Methods: We performed a hierarchical cluster analysis based on Ward\u2019s Method and Squared Euclidean Distance using 22 clinical binary variables, identifying the optimal number of clusters. We investigated differences in clinical management, use of healthcare resources and outcomes in a cohort of European AF patients from a Europe-wide observational registry. Results: A total of 9363 were available for this analysis. We identified three clusters: Cluster 1 (n = 3634; 38.8%) characterized by older patients and prevalent non-cardiac comorbidities; Cluster 2 (n = 2774; 29.6%) characterized by younger patients with low prevalence of comorbidities; Cluster 3 (n = 2955;31.6%) characterized by patients\u2019 prevalent cardiovascular risk factors/comorbidities. Over a mean follow-up of 22.5 months, Cluster 3 had the highest rate of cardiovascular events, all-cause death, and the composite outcome (combining the previous two) compared to Cluster 1 and Cluster 2 (all P <.001). An adjusted Cox regression showed that compared to Cluster 2, Cluster 3 (hazard ratio (HR) 2.87, 95% confidence interval (CI) 2.27\u20133.62; HR 3.42, 95%CI 2.72\u20134.31; HR 2.79, 95%CI 2.32\u20133.35), and Cluster 1 (HR 1.88, 95%CI 1.48\u20132.38; HR 2.50, 95%CI 1.98\u20133.15; HR 2.09, 95%CI 1.74\u20132.51) reported a higher risk for the three outcomes respectively. Conclusions: In European AF patients, three main clusters were identified, differentiated by differential presence of comorbidities. Both non-cardiac and cardiac comorbidities clusters were found to be associated with an increased risk of major adverse outcomes

Anonymous Women? A Scoping Review of the Experiences of Women in Gamblers Anonymous (GA)

Women are participating in gambling at levels approaching those of men, and although levels of disordered gambling remain lower in women than in men, significant numbers are affected. Gamblers Anonymous (GA) is a mainstay of help to problem gamblers in many countries. A scoping review was conducted which specifically addressed the experiences of women who attend GA. Within the 25 identified relevant studies, only two reported empirical data on the specific numbers of women attending. A range of barriers still remain to the participation of women in these communities. These include ‘external’ barriers such as lack of referral and signposting, lack of accessible meetings, and costs of travel; ‘internal’ barriers such as shame, stigma, and fear of disclosure; and features of the GA meetings and discourse, such as a climate which is dismissive of women’s experiences