Forecasting Metals Returns A Bayesian Decision Theoretic Approach

Turning points in commodity returns are important for decisions of policy makers, commodity producers and consumers reliant on medium term outcomes. However, forecasting of turning points has been a neglected feature of forecasting, especially in commodity markets. I forecast turning points in metals price returns using Bayesian Decision Theory. The method produces a probabilistic statement about our belief of a turning point occurring in the next period which, combined with a decision rule based on a loss function generates optimal turning point forecasts. This method produces positive results in forecasting turning points in metals returns, with the simple linear models investigated producing more accurate turning point forecasts than naive models across a number of different evaluation methods for the general case and for the specific example of a producing firm.

Submillimeter diffusion tensor imaging and late gadolinium enhancement cardiovascular magnetic resonance of chronic myocardial infarction.

BackgroundKnowledge of the three-dimensional (3D) infarct structure and fiber orientation remodeling is essential for complete understanding of infarct pathophysiology and post-infarction electromechanical functioning of the heart. Accurate imaging of infarct microstructure necessitates imaging techniques that produce high image spatial resolution and high signal-to-noise ratio (SNR). The aim of this study is to provide detailed reconstruction of 3D chronic infarcts in order to characterize the infarct microstructural remodeling in porcine and human hearts.MethodsWe employed a customized diffusion tensor imaging (DTI) technique in conjunction with late gadolinium enhancement (LGE) cardiovascular magnetic resonance (CMR) on a 3T clinical scanner to image, at submillimeter resolution, myofiber orientation and scar structure in eight chronically infarcted porcine hearts ex vivo. Systematic quantification of local microstructure was performed and the chronic infarct remodeling was characterized at different levels of wall thickness and scar transmurality. Further, a human heart with myocardial infarction was imaged using the same DTI sequence.ResultsThe SNR of non-diffusion-weighted images was >100 in the infarcted and control hearts. Mean diffusivity and fractional anisotropy (FA) demonstrated a 43% increase, and a 35% decrease respectively, inside the scar tissue. Despite this, the majority of the scar showed anisotropic structure with FA higher than an isotropic liquid. The analysis revealed that the primary eigenvector orientation at the infarcted wall on average followed the pattern of original fiber orientation (imbrication angle mean: 1.96 ± 11.03° vs. 0.84 ± 1.47°, p = 0.61, and inclination angle range: 111.0 ± 10.7° vs. 112.5 ± 6.8°, p = 0.61, infarcted/control wall), but at a higher transmural gradient of inclination angle that increased with scar transmurality (r = 0.36) and the inverse of wall thickness (r = 0.59). Further, the infarcted wall exhibited a significant increase in both the proportion of left-handed epicardial eigenvectors, and in the angle incoherency. The infarcted human heart demonstrated preservation of primary eigenvector orientation at the thinned region of infarct, consistent with the findings in the porcine hearts.ConclusionsThe application of high-resolution DTI and LGE-CMR revealed the detailed organization of anisotropic infarct structure at a chronic state. This information enhances our understanding of chronic post-infarction remodeling in large animal and human hearts

Singularities in Speckled Speckle

Speckle patterns produced by random optical fields with two (or more) widely different correlation lengths exhibit speckle spots that are themselves highly speckled. Using computer simulations and analytic theory we present results for the point singularities of speckled speckle fields: optical vortices in scalar (one polarization component) fields; C points in vector (two polarization component) fields. In single correlation length fields both types of singularities tend to be more{}-or{}-less uniformly distributed. In contrast, the singularity structure of speckled speckle is anomalous: for some sets of source parameters vortices and C points tend to form widely separated giant clusters, for other parameter sets these singularities tend to form chains that surround large empty regions. The critical point statistics of speckled speckle is also anomalous. In scalar (vector) single correlation length fields phase (azimuthal) extrema are always outnumbered by vortices (C points). In contrast, in speckled speckle fields, phase extrema can outnumber vortices, and azimuthal extrema can outnumber C points, by factors that can easily exceed $10^{4}$ for experimentally realistic source parameters

Free Energies of Isolated 5- and 7-fold Disclinations in Hexatic Membranes

We examine the shapes and energies of 5- and 7-fold disclinations in low-temperature hexatic membranes. These defects buckle at different values of the ratio of the bending rigidity, $\kappa$, to the hexatic stiffness constant, $K_A$, suggesting {\em two} distinct Kosterlitz-Thouless defect proliferation temperatures. Seven-fold disclinations are studied in detail numerically for arbitrary $\kappa/K_A$. We argue that thermal fluctuations always drive $\kappa/K_A$ into an ``unbuckled'' regime at long wavelengths, so that disclinations should, in fact, proliferate at the {\em same} critical temperature. We show analytically that both types of defects have power law shapes with continuously variable exponents in the ``unbuckled'' regime. Thermal fluctuations then lock in specific power laws at long wavelengths, which we calculate for 5- and 7-fold defects at low temperatures.Comment: LaTeX format. 17 pages. To appear in Phys. Rev.

Determining the phases alpha and gamma from time-dependent CP violation in B0 decays to rho(omega) + pseudoscalar

A method is proposed for the determination of the unitarity angle alpha through tree penguin interference. The modes needed would be of the form B0/B0-bar -> rho0 M and B0/B0-bar -> omega M where M is spin-0 uu-bar/dd-bar meson, for instance M=pi0, eta, eta',a0 or f0. An analogous method can also determine gamma using M=KS or K_L. The validity of the theoretical approximations used may be tested by over determining alpha with several modes. If two or more modes are used, the determination has a four-fold ambiguity but additional information from pure penguin decays or theoretical estimates may be used to reduce the ambiguity to alpha, alpha+pi. The method as applied to determining gamma is probably less promising.Comment: 17 pages, 2 figures; Small change with respect to the references and a postscript bug in the figures fixe

Conservation, Policy and the Role of Counsel

The conservation interests in the State of Maine have been roused to a furor by the decision of Maine\u27s highest court in State v. Johnson. The case, in substance, holds that Maine\u27s Wetlands Act is unconstitutional when applied to prohibit the filling of a specific segment of salt water marsh. While both the decision and the underlying statute are of considerable substantive interest, the case deserves particular study for the light it sheds on the role of counsel in helping the legal process accommodate new policy concerns. A note of caution must, of course, be sounded before seeking to generalize too broadly from a single example. It is always possible that a case of major significance may arise among private parties, or even between government and private parties, without its importance being recognized by those directly involved. Such was not the case with Johnson. When the permit to fill the marshland was denied and the owners sought judicial review, it was recognized as the first contested case to arise under the new Wetlands Act. The parties and the trial justice sought to expedite appeal of the case, the landowners seeking an immediate declaration of the unconstitutionality of the Act. The expedited appeal was rejected, and the case was remanded for the taking of evidence. At that early stage the Natural Resources Council of Maine had already entered the case as amicus curiae, and a law school faculty member who had helped draft the legislation participated in preparing the amicus brief. The case also received comment in a recent study of laws affecting marine resources in Maine. It is precisely because it was a cause celebre by the time of trial that the case deserves careful analysis as an example of the lawmaking process

The Democratic Biopolitics of PrEP

PrEP (Pre-Exposure Prophylaxis) is a relatively new drug-based HIV prevention technique and an important means to lower the HIV risk of gay men who are especially vulnerable to HIV. From the perspective of biopolitics, PrEP inscribes itself in a larger trend of medicalization and the rise of pharmapower. This article reconstructs and evaluates contemporary literature on biopolitical theory as it applies to PrEP, by bringing it in a dialogue with a mapping of the political debate on PrEP. As PrEP changes sexual norms and subjectification, for example condom use and its meaning for gay subjectivity, it is highly contested. The article shows that the debate on PrEP can be best described with the concepts ‘sexual-somatic ethics’ and ‘democratic biopolitics’, which I develop based on the biopolitical approach of Nikolas Rose and Paul Rabinow. In contrast, interpretations of PrEP which are following governmentality studies or Italian Theory amount to either farfetched or trivial positions on PrEP, when seen in light of the political debate. Furthermore, the article is a contribution to the scholarship on gay subjectivity, highlighting how homophobia and homonormativity haunts gay sex even in liberal environments, and how PrEP can serve as an entry point for the destigmatization of gay sexuality and transformation of gay subjectivity. ‘Biopolitical democratization’ entails making explicit how medical technology and health care relates to sexual subjectification and ethics, to strengthen the voice of (potential) PrEP users in health politics, and to renegotiate the profit and power of Big Pharma

The Fermi Liquid as a Renormalization Group Fixed Point: the Role of Interference in the Landau Channel

We apply the finite-temperature renormalization-group (RG) to a model based on an effective action with a short-range repulsive interaction and a rotation invariant Fermi surface. The basic quantities of Fermi liquid theory, the Landau function and the scattering vertex, are calculated as fixed points of the RG flow in terms of the effective action's interaction function. The classic derivations of Fermi liquid theory, which apply the Bethe-Salpeter equation and amount to summing direct particle-hole ladder diagrams, neglect the zero-angle singularity in the exchange particle-hole loop. As a consequence, the antisymmetry of the forward scattering vertex is not guaranteed and the amplitude sum rule must be imposed by hand on the components of the Landau function. We show that the strong interference of the direct and exchange processes of particle-hole scattering near zero angle invalidates the ladder approximation in this region, resulting in temperature-dependent narrow-angle anomalies in the Landau function and scattering vertex. In this RG approach the Pauli principle is automatically satisfied. The consequences of the RG corrections on Fermi liquid theory are discussed. In particular, we show that the amplitude sum rule is not valid.Comment: 25 pages, RevTeX 3.