Does "model-free" forecasting really outperform the "true" model? A reply to Perretti et al

Estimating population models from uncertain observations is an important problem in ecology. Perretti et al. observed that standard Bayesian state-space solutions to this problem may provide biased parameter estimates when the underlying dynamics are chaotic. Consequently, forecasts based on these estimates showed poor predictive accuracy compared to simple "model-free" methods, which lead Perretti et al. to conclude that "Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data". However, a simple modification of the statistical methods also suffices to remove the bias and reverse their results.Comment: Letter submitted to PNAS, with additional supplementary information. R code included in the latex sourc

Reconciliation of RDF* and Property Graphs

Both the notion of Property Graphs (PG) and the Resource Description Framework (RDF) are commonly used models for representing graph-shaped data. While there exist some system-specific solutions to convert data from one model to the other, these solutions are not entirely compatible with one another and none of them appears to be based on a formal foundation. In fact, for the PG model, there does not even exist a commonly agreed-upon formal definition. The aim of this document is to reconcile both models formally. To this end, the document proposes a formalization of the PG model and introduces well-defined transformations between PGs and RDF. As a result, the document provides a basis for the following two innovations: On one hand, by implementing the RDF-to-PG transformations defined in this document, PG-based systems can enable their users to load RDF data and make it accessible in a compatible, system-independent manner using, e.g., the graph traversal language Gremlin or the declarative graph query language Cypher. On the other hand, the PG-to-RDF transformation in this document enables RDF data management systems to support compatible, system-independent queries over the content of Property Graphs by using the standard RDF query language SPARQL. Additionally, this document represents a foundation for systematic research on relationships between the two models and between their query languages.Comment: slightly changed the definition of PGs and added the notion of property uniquenes