The cost of congenital heart-disease in children and adults: a model for multicenter assessment of price and practice variation

Objective: To assess the cost of congenital heart disease (CHD) and to assess whether practice pattern or price was more responsible for variation

Estimating Carbon Budgets for Ambitious Climate Targets

Carbon budgets, which define the total allowable CO2 emissions associated with a given global climate target, are a useful way of framing the climate mitigation challenge. In this paper, we review the geophysical basis for the idea of a carbon budget, showing how this concept emerges from a linear climate response to cumulative CO2 emissions. We then discuss the difference between a “CO2-only carbon budget” associated with a given level of CO2-induced warming and an “effective carbon budget” associated with a given level of warming caused by all human emissions. We present estimates for the CO2-only and effective carbon budgets for 1.5 and 2 °C, based on both model simulations and updated observational data. Finally, we discuss the key contributors to uncertainty in carbon budget estimates and suggest some implications of this uncertainty for decision-making. Based on the analysis presented here, we argue that while the CO2-only carbon budget is a robust upper bound on allowable emissions for a given climate target, the size of the effective carbon budget is dependent on the how quickly we are able to mitigate non-CO2 greenhouse gas and aerosol emissions. This suggests that climate mitigation efforts could benefit from being responsive to a changing effective carbon budget over time, as well as to potential new information that could narrow uncertainty associated with the climate response to CO2 emissions

Analysis of enriched rare variants in JPH2-encoded junctophilin-2 among Greater Middle Eastern individuals reveals a novel homozygous variant associated with neonatal dilated cardiomyopathy.

Junctophilin-2 (JPH2) is a part of the junctional membrane complex that facilitates calcium-handling in the cardiomyocyte. Previously, missense variants in JPH2 have been linked to hypertrophic cardiomyopathy; however, pathogenic "loss of function" (LOF) variants have not been described. Family-based genetic analysis of GME individuals with cardiomyopathic disease identified an Iranian patient with dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) as a carrier of a novel, homozygous single nucleotide insertion in JPH2 resulting in a stop codon (JPH2-p.E641*). A second Iranian family with consanguineous parents hosting an identical heterozygous variant had 2 children die in childhood from cardiac failure. To characterize ethnicity-dependent genetic variability in JPH2 and to identify homozygous JPH2 variants associated with cardiac disease, we identified variants in JPH2 in a worldwide control cohort (gnomAD) and 2 similar cohorts from the Greater Middle East (GME Variome, Iranome). These were compared against ethnicity-matched clinical whole exome sequencing (WES) referral tests and a case cohort of individuals with hypertrophic cardiomyopathy (HCM) based on comprehensive review of the literature. Worldwide, 1.45% of healthy individuals hosted a rare JPH2 variant with a significantly higher proportion among GME individuals (4.45%); LOF variants were rare overall (0.04%) yet were most prevalent in GME (0.21%). The increased prevalence of LOF variants in GME individuals was corroborated among region-specific, clinical WES cohorts. In conclusion, we report ethnic-specific differences in JPH2 rare variants, with GME individuals being at higher risk of hosting homozygous LOF variants. This conclusion is supported by the identification of a novel JPH2 LOF variant confirmed by segregation analysis resulting in autosomal recessive pediatric DCM due to presumptive JPH2 truncation

Identifying metabolites by integrating metabolome databases with mass spectrometry cheminformatics.

Novel metabolites distinct from canonical pathways can be identified through the integration of three cheminformatics tools: BinVestigate, which queries the BinBase gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS) metabolome database to match unknowns with biological metadata across over 110,000 samples; MS-DIAL 2.0, a software tool for chromatographic deconvolution of high-resolution GC-MS or liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry (LC-MS); and MS-FINDER 2.0, a structure-elucidation program that uses a combination of 14 metabolome databases in addition to an enzyme promiscuity library. We showcase our workflow by annotating N-methyl-uridine monophosphate (UMP), lysomonogalactosyl-monopalmitin, N-methylalanine, and two propofol derivatives

Optimality of mutation and selection in germinal centers

The population dynamics theory of B cells in a typical germinal center could play an important role in revealing how affinity maturation is achieved. However, the existing models encountered some conflicts with experiments. To resolve these conflicts, we present a coarse-grained model to calculate the B cell population development in affinity maturation, which allows a comprehensive analysis of its parameter space to look for optimal values of mutation rate, selection strength, and initial antibody-antigen binding level that maximize the affinity improvement. With these optimized parameters, the model is compatible with the experimental observations such as the ~100-fold affinity improvements, the number of mutations, the hypermutation rate, and the "all or none" phenomenon. Moreover, we study the reasons behind the optimal parameters. The optimal mutation rate, in agreement with the hypermutation rate in vivo, results from a tradeoff between accumulating enough beneficial mutations and avoiding too many deleterious or lethal mutations. The optimal selection strength evolves as a balance between the need for affinity improvement and the requirement to pass the population bottleneck. These findings point to the conclusion that germinal centers have been optimized by evolution to generate strong affinity antibodies effectively and rapidly. In addition, we study the enhancement of affinity improvement due to B cell migration between germinal centers. These results could enhance our understandings to the functions of germinal centers.Comment: 5 figures in main text, and 4 figures in Supplementary Informatio

Novel genetic analysis for case-control genome-wide association studies: quantification of power and genomic prediction accuracy

Genome-wide association studies (GWAS) are routinely conducted for both quantitative and binary (disease) traits. We present two analytical tools for use in the experimental design of GWAS. Firstly, we present power calculations quantifying power in a unified framework for a range of scenarios. In this context we consider the utility of quantitative scores (e.g. endophenotypes) that may be available on cases only or both cases and controls. Secondly, we consider, the accuracy of prediction of genetic risk from genome-wide SNPs and derive an expression for genomic prediction accuracy using a liability threshold model for disease traits in a case-control design. The expected values based on our derived equations for both power and prediction accuracy agree well with observed estimates from simulations

Agronomic Management of Indigenous Mycorrhizas

Many of the advantages conferred to plants by arbuscular mycorrhiza (AM) are associated to the ability of AM plants to explore a greater volume of soil through the extraradical mycelium. Sieverding (1991) estimates that for each centimetre of colonized root there is an increase of 15 cm3 on the volume of soil explored, this value can increase to 200 cm3 depending on the circumstances. Due to the enhancement of the volume of soil explored and the ability of the extraradical mycelium to absorb and translocate nutrients to the plant, one of the most obvious and important advantages resulting from mycorrhization is the uptake of nutrients. Among of which the ones that have immobilized forms in soil, such as P, assume particular significance. Besides this, many other benefits are recognized for AM plants (Gupta et al, 2000): water stress alleviation (Augé, 2004; Cho et al, 2006), protection from root pathogens (Graham, 2001), tolerance to toxic heavy metals and phytoremediation (Audet and Charest, 2006; Göhre and Paszkowski, 2006), tolerance to adverse conditions such as very high or low temperature, high salinity (Sannazzaro et al, 2006), high or low pH (Yano and Takaki, 2005) or better performance during transplantation shock (Subhan et al, 1998). The extraradical hyphae also stabilize soil aggregates by both enmeshing soil particles (Miller e Jastrow, 1992) and producing a glycoprotein, golmalin, which may act as a glue-like substance to adhere soil particles together (Wright and Upadhyaya, 1998). Despite the ubiquous distribution of mycorrhizal fungi (Smith and Read, 2000) and only a relative specificity between host plants and fungal isolates (McGonigle and Fitter, 1990), the obligate nature of the symbiosis implies the establishment of a plant propagation system, either under greenhouse conditions or in vitro laboratory propagation. These techniques result in high inoculum production costs, which still remains a serious problem since they are not competitive with production costs of phosphorus fertilizer. Even if farmers understand the significance of sustainable agricultural systems, the reduction of phosphorus inputs by using AM fungal inocula alone cannot be justified except, perhaps, in the case of high value crops (Saioto and Marumoto, 2002). Nurseries, high income horticulture farmers and no-agricultural application such as rehabilitation of degraded or devegetated landscapes are examples of areas where the use of commercial inoculum is current. Another serious problem is quality of commercial available products concerning guarantee of phatogene free content, storage conditions, most effective application methods and what types to use. Besides the information provided by suppliers about its inoculum can be deceiving, as from the usually referred total counts, only a fraction may be effective for a particular plant or in specific soil conditions. Gianinazzi and Vosátka (2004) assume that progress should be made towards registration procedures that stimulate the development of the mycorrhizal industry. Some on-farm inoculum production and application methods have been studied, allowing farmers to produce locally adapted isolates and generate a taxonomically diverse inoculum (Mohandas et al, 2004; Douds et al, 2005). However the inocula produced this way are not readily processed for mechanical application to the fields, being an obstacle to the utilization in large scale agriculture, especially row crops, moreover it would represent an additional mechanical operation with the corresponding economic and soil compaction costs. It is well recognized that inoculation of AM fungi has a potential significance in not only sustainable crop production, but also environmental conservation. However, the status quo of inoculation is far from practical technology that can be widely used in the field. Together a further basic understanding of the biology and diversity of AM fungi is needed (Abbott at al, 1995; Saito and Marumoto, 2002). Advances in ecology during the past decade have led to a much more detailed understanding of the potential negative consequences of species introductions and the potential for negative ecological consequences of invasions by mycorrhizal fungi is poorly understood. Schwartz et al, (2006) recommend that a careful assessment documenting the need for inoculation, and the likelihood of success, should be conducted prior to inoculation because inoculations are not universally beneficial. Agricultural practices such as crop rotation, tillage, weed control and fertilizer apllication all produce changes in the chemical, physical and biological soil variables and affect the ecological niches available for occupancy by the soil biota, influencing in different ways the symbiosis performance and consequently the inoculum development, shaping changes and upset balance of native populations. The molecular biology tools developed in the latest years have been very important for our perception of these changes, ensuing awareness of management choice implications in AM development. In this context, for extensive farming systems and regarding environmental and economic costs, the identification of agronomic management practices that allow controlled manipulation of the fungal community and capitalization of AM mutualistic effect making use of local inoculum, seem to be a wise option for mycorrhiza promotion and development of sustainable crop production

Research frontiers for improving our understanding of drought-induced tree and forest mortality

Accumulating evidence highlights increased mortality risks for trees during severe drought, particularly under warmer temperatures and increasing vapour pressure deficit (VPD). Resulting forest die-off events have severe consequences for ecosystem services, biophysical and biogeochemical land–atmosphere processes. Despite advances in monitoring, modelling and experimental studies of the causes and consequences of tree death from individual tree to ecosystem and global scale, a general mechanistic understanding and realistic predictions of drought mortality under future climate conditions are still lacking. We update a global tree mortality map and present a roadmap to a more holistic understanding of forest mortality across scales. We highlight priority research frontiers that promote: (1) new avenues for research on key tree ecophysiological responses to drought; (2) scaling from the tree/plot level to the ecosystem and region; (3) improvements of mortality risk predictions based on both empirical and mechanistic insights; and (4) a global monitoring network of forest mortality. In light of recent and anticipated large forest die-off events such a research agenda is timely and needed to achieve scientific understanding for realistic predictions of drought-induced tree mortality. The implementation of a sustainable network will require support by stakeholders and political authorities at the international level

Tracing the wider impacts of biomedical research: A literature search to develop a novel citation categorisation technique

There is an increasing need both to understand the translation of biomedical research into improved healthcare and to assess the range of wider impacts from health research such as improved health policies, health practices and healthcare. Conducting such assessments is complex and new methods are being sought. Our new approach involves several steps. First, we developed a qualitative citation analysis technique to apply to biomedical research in order to assess the contribution that individual papers made to further research. Second, using this method, we then proposed to trace the citations to the original research through a series of generations of citing papers. Third, we aimed eventually to assess the wider impacts of the various generations. This article describes our comprehensive literature search to inform the new technique. We searched various databases, specific bibliometrics journals and the bibliographies of key papers. After excluding irrelevant papers we reviewed those remaining for either general or specific details that could inform development of our new technique. Various characteristics of citations were identified that had been found to predict their importance to the citing paper including the citation’s location; number of citation occasions and whether the author(s) of the cited paper were named within the citing paper. We combined these objective characteristics with subjective approaches also identified from the literature search to develop a citation categorisation technique that would allow us to achieve the first of the steps above, i.e., being able routinely to assess the contribution that individual papers make to further research.Medical Research Council as part of the MRC-NIHR Methodology Research Programme, and Professor Martin Buxton

Sensitivity of projected long-term CO 2 emissions across the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways

Scenarios showing future greenhouse gas emissions are needed to estimate climate impacts and the mitigation efforts required for climate stabilization. Recently, the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) have been introduced to describe alternative social, economic and technical narratives, spanning a wide range of plausible futures in terms of challenges to mitigation and adaptation. Thus far the key drivers of the uncertainty in emissions projections have not been robustly disentangled. Here we assess the sensitivities of future CO 2 emissions to key drivers characterizing the SSPs. We use six state-of-the-art integrated assessment models with different structural characteristics, and study the impact of five families of parameters, related to population, income, energy efficiency, fossil fuel availability, and low-carbon energy technology development. A recently developed sensitivity analysis algorithm allows us to parsimoniously compute both the direct and interaction effects of each of these drivers on cumulative emissions. The study reveals that the SSP assumptions about energy intensity and economic growth are the most important determinants of future CO 2 emissions from energy combustion, both with and without a climate policy. Interaction terms between parameters are shown to be important determinants of the total sensitivities