Assessing High House Prices: Bubbles, Fundamentals, and Misperceptions

We construct measures of the annual cost of single-family housing for 46 metropolitan areas in the United States over the last 25 years and compare them with local rents and incomes as a way of judging the level of housing prices. Conventional metrics like the growth rate of house prices, the price-to-rent ratio, and the price-to-income ratio can be misleading because they fail to account both for the time series pattern of real long-term interest rates and predictable differences in the long-run growth rates of house prices across local markets. These factors are especially important in recent years because house prices are theoretically more sensitive to interest rates when rates are already low, and more sensitive still in those cities where the long-run rate of house price growth is high. During the 1980s, our measures show that houses looked most overvalued in many of the same cities that subsequently experienced the largest house price declines. We find that from the trough of 1995 to 2004, the cost of owning rose somewhat relative to the cost of renting, but not, in most cities, to levels that made houses look overvalued.

Is bank lending special?

Bank loans ; Financial institutions ; Commercial loans

Do Stock Price Bubbles Influence Corporate Investment?

Building on recent developments in behavioral asset pricing, we develop a model in which dispersion of investor beliefs under short-selling constraints drives a firm's stock price above its fundamental value. Managers optimally respond to the stock market bubble by issuing new equity. The bubble reduces the user-cost of capital and increase real investment. Using the variance of analysts' earnings forecasts as a proxy for the dispersion of investor beliefs, we find strong empirical support for the model's key prediction that increases in dispersion cause increases in new equity issuance, Tobin's Q, and real investment.

Repair prioritization with respect to inventory requirements

In a multi-echelon service parts supply chain with limited repair resources, real-time repair decisions have significant impacts on supply chain performance. Inducting into repair the appropriate breadth and depth of components is essential to meeting short-term and long-term customer service level constraints. Previous research in this area primarily focuses on steady-state supply chains assuming infinite repair capabilities and the repair induction of all non-serviceable parts. This thesis develops a Mixed Integer Linear Program (MIP) which considers the current state of the entire repair system as well as forecasted part-breakages to produce strategic real-time repair recommendations. Repair inductions are prioritized to maximize stock location service levels over multiple budget periods through comparative fill rates encompassing both issue effectiveness and sub-system availability. Multiple model runs were completed to determine objective function parameter specifications that best align with these overall system goals. Model output includes daily or weekly repair recommendations, a prioritized list of repair inductions, and projected supply chain performance for issue effectiveness and sub-system availability

Investment, protection, ownership, and the cost of capital

We investigate the cost of capital in a model with an agency conflict between inside managers and outside shareholders. Inside ownership reflects the classic tradeoff between incentives and risk diversification, and the severity of agency costs depends on a parameter representing investor protection. In equilibrium, the marginal cost of capital is a weighted average of terms reflecting both idiosyncratic and systematic risk, and weaker investor protection increases the weight on idiosyncratic risk. Using firm-level data from 38 countries, we estimate the predicted relationships among investor protection, inside ownership, and the marginal cost of capital. We discuss implications for the determinants of firm size, the relationship between Tobin's Q and ownership, and the effect of financial liberalizations.Investor protection, ownership, investment, cost of capital, agency costs

Investment and Time to Plan: A Comparison of Structures vs. Equipment in a Panel of Italian Firms

“Time to build” models of investment expenditures play an important role in many traditional and modern theories of the business cycle, especially for explaining the dynamic propagation of shocks. We estimate the structural parameters of a time-to-build model using firm-level investment data on equipment and structures. For equipment expenditures, we find no evidence of time-to-build effects beyond one period. For structures, by contrast, there is clear evidence of time to build in the range of 2-3 years. The contrast between equipment and structures is intuitively reasonable and consistent with previous results. The estimates for structures also indicate that initial-period expenditures are low, and increase as projects near completion. These results provide empirical support for including “time to plan” effects for investment in structures. More generally, these results suggest a potential source of specification error for Q models of investment and production-based asset pricing models that ignore the time required to plan, build and install new capital.Investment expenditures, Panel data, Italian firms, Time to build

Recent revisions to corporate profits: what we know and when we knew it

Initial estimates in the National Income and Product Accounts significantly overstated U.S. corporate profits for the 1998-2000 period. Subsequent revisions reveal that the profitability of the nation's corporate sector in the late 1990s was substantially weaker than "real-time" data indicated. An unexpected surge in employee stock options exercised-and perhaps, in some sectors, firms' inflated statements of profit-may help explain the large downward revisions.Corporate profits ; Stock options ; Statistics ; Economic indicators

Countable Random Sets: Uniqueness in Law and Constructiveness

The first part of this article deals with theorems on uniqueness in law for \sigma-finite and constructive countable random sets, which in contrast to the usual assumptions may have points of accumulation. We discuss and compare two approaches on uniqueness theorems: First, the study of generators for \sigma-fields used in this context and, secondly, the analysis of hitting functions. The last section of this paper deals with the notion of constructiveness. We will prove a measurable selection theorem and a decomposition theorem for constructive countable random sets, and study constructive countable random sets with independent increments.Comment: Published in Journal of Theoretical Probability (http://www.springerlink.com/content/0894-9840/). The final publication is available at http://www.springerlink.co

Investment and Time to Plan: A Comparison of Structures vs. Equipment in a Panel of Italian Firms

Time to build models of investment expenditures play an important role in many traditional and modern theories of the business cycle, especially for explaining the dynamic propagation of shocks. We estimate the structural parameters of a time-to-build model using firm-level investment data on equipment and structures. For equipment expenditures, we find no evidence of time-to-build effects beyond one period. For structures, by contrast, there is clear evidence of time to build in the range of 2-3 years. The contrast between equipment and structures is intuitively reasonable and consistent with previous results. The estimates for structures also indicate that initial-period expenditures are low, and increase as projects near completion. These results provide empirical support for including time to plan effects for investment in structures. More generally, these results suggest a potential source of specification error for Q models of investment and production-based asset pricing models that ignore the time required to plan, build and install new capital