Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance 1990-2021: a systematic analysis with forecasts to 2050

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses an important global health challenge in the 21st century. A previous study has quantified the global and regional burden of AMR for 2019, followed with additional publications that provided more detailed estimates for several WHO regions by country. To date, there have been no studies that produce comprehensive estimates of AMR burden across locations that encompass historical trends and future forecasts. Methods We estimated all-age and age-specific deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 22 pathogens, 84 pathogen–drug combinations, and 11 infectious syndromes in 204 countries and territories from 1990 to 2021. We collected and used multiple cause of death data, hospital discharge data, microbiology data, literature studies, single drug resistance profiles, pharmaceutical sales, antibiotic use surveys, mortality surveillance, linkage data, outpatient and inpatient insurance claims data, and previously published data, covering 520 million individual records or isolates and 19 513 study-location-years. We used statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including those with no data. Our approach leverages the estimation of five broad component quantities: the number of deaths involving sepsis; the proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome; the proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen; the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest; and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden attributable to and associated with AMR, which we define based on two counterfactuals; respectively, an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections are replaced by drug-susceptible infections, and an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection. Additionally, we produced global and regional forecasts of AMR burden until 2050 for three scenarios: a reference scenario that is a probabilistic forecast of the most likely future; a Gram-negative drug scenario that assumes future drug development that targets Gram-negative pathogens; and a better care scenario that assumes future improvements in health-care quality and access to appropriate antimicrobials. We present final estimates aggregated to the global, super-regional, and regional level. Findings In 2021, we estimated 4·71 million (95% UI 4·23–5·19) deaths were associated with bacterial AMR, including 1·14 million (1·00–1·28) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. Trends in AMR mortality over the past 31 years varied substantially by age and location. From 1990 to 2021, deaths from AMR decreased by more than 50% among children younger than 5 years yet increased by over 80% for adults 70 years and older. AMR mortality decreased for children younger than 5 years in all super-regions, whereas AMR mortality in people 5 years and older increased in all super-regions. For both deaths associated with and deaths attributable to AMR, meticillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus increased the most globally (from 261 000 associated deaths [95% UI 150 000–372 000] and 57 200 attributable deaths [34 100–80 300] in 1990, to 550 000 associated deaths [500 000–600 000] and 130 000 attributable deaths [113 000–146 000] in 2021). Among Gram-negative bacteria, resistance to carbapenems increased more than any other antibiotic class, rising from 619 000 associated deaths (405 000–834 000) in 1990, to 1·03 million associated deaths (909 000–1·16 million) in 2021, and from 127 000 attributable deaths (82 100–171 000) in 1990, to 216 000 (168 000–264 000) attributable deaths in 2021. There was a notable decrease in non-COVID-related infectious disease in 2020 and 2021. Our forecasts show that an estimated 1·91 million (1·56–2·26) deaths attributable to AMR and 8·22 million (6·85–9·65) deaths associated with AMR could occur globally in 2050. Super-regions with the highest all-age AMR mortality rate in 2050 are forecasted to be south Asia and Latin America and the Caribbean. Increases in deaths attributable to AMR will be largest among those 70 years and older (65·9% [61·2–69·8] of all-age deaths attributable to AMR in 2050). In stark contrast to the strong increase in number of deaths due to AMR of 69·6% (51·5–89·2) from 2022 to 2050, the number of DALYs showed a much smaller increase of 9·4% (–6·9 to 29·0) to 46·5 million (37·7 to 57·3) in 2050. Under the better care scenario, across all age groups, 92·0 million deaths (82·8–102·0) could be cumulatively averted between 2025 and 2050, through better care of severe infections and improved access to antibiotics, and under the Gram-negative drug scenario, 11·1 million AMR deaths (9·08–13·2) could be averted through the development of a Gram-negative drug pipeline to prevent AMR deaths. Interpretation This study presents the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR from 1990 to 2021, with results forecasted until 2050. Evaluating changing trends in AMR mortality across time and location is necessary to understand how this important global health threat is developing and prepares us to make informed decisions regarding interventions. Our findings show the importance of infection prevention, as shown by the reduction of AMR deaths in those younger than 5 years. Simultaneously, our results underscore the concerning trend of AMR burden among those older than 70 years, alongside a rapidly ageing global community. The opposing trends in the burden of AMR deaths between younger and older individuals explains the moderate future increase in global number of DALYs versus number of deaths. Given the high variability of AMR burden by location and age, it is important that interventions combine infection prevention, vaccination, minimisation of inappropriate antibiotic use in farming and humans, and research into new antibiotics to mitigate the number of AMR deaths that are forecasted for 2050. Funding UK Department of Health and Social Care's Fleming Fund using UK aid, and the Wellcome Trust

Pharmacogenomic Analysis of CYP3A5*3 and Tacrolimus Trough Concentrations in Vietnamese Renal Transplant Outcomes

Thi Van Anh Nguyen,1,&ast; Ba Hai Le,2,&ast; Minh Thanh Nguyen,2,&ast; Viet Thang Le,3,&ast; Viet Tien Tran,4,&ast; Dinh Tuan Le,5,&ast; Duong Anh Minh Vu,2,&ast; Quy Kien Truong,3,&ast; Trong Hieu Le,2,&ast; Huong Thi Lien Nguyen2,&ast; 1Department of Pharmacy, 103 Military Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam; 2Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Hanoi University of Pharmacy, Hanoi, Vietnam; 3Department of Nephrology and Dialysis, 103 Military Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam; 4Department of Infectious Diseases, 103 Military Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam; 5Department of Rheumatology and Endocrinology, 103 Military Hospital, Hanoi, Vietnam&ast;These authors contributed equally to this workCorrespondence: Huong Thi Lien Nguyen, Department of Clinical Pharmacy, Hanoi University of Pharmacy, 13-15 Le Thanh Tong, Hoan Kiem, Hanoi, Vietnam, Tel +84904308406, Email [email protected]: CYP3A5 polymorphisms have been associated with variations in the pharmacokinetics of tacrolimus (Tac) in kidney transplant patients. Our study aims to quantify how the CYP3A5 genotype influences tacrolimus trough concentrations (C0) in a Vietnamese outpatient population by selecting an appropriate population pharmacokinetic model of Tac for our patients.Patients and Methods: The external dataset was obtained prospectively from 54 data of adult kidney transplant recipients treated at the 103 Military Hospital. All published Tac population pharmacokinetic models were systematically screened from PubMed and Scopus databases and were selected based on our patient’s available characteristics. Mean absolute prediction error (MAPE), mean prediction error, and goodness-of-fit plots were used to identify the appropriate model for finding the formula that identifies the influence of CYP3A5 genotype on the pharmacokinetic data of Vietnamese patients.Results: The model of Zhu et al had a good predictive ability with MAPE of 19.29%. The influence of CYP3A5 genotype on tacrolimus clearance was expressed by the following formulas: . The simulation result showed that Tac C0 was significantly higher in patients not expressing CYP3A5 (p< 0.001).Conclusion: The incorporation of the CYP3A5 phenotype into Zhu’s structural model has significantly enhanced our ability to predict Tacrolimus trough levels in the Vietnamese population. This study’s results underscore the valuable role of CYP3A5 phenotype in optimizing the forecast of Tac concentrations, offering a promising avenue to assist health-care practitioners in their clinical decision-making and ultimately advance patient care outcomes.Keywords: tacrolimus, population pharmacokinetic, CYP3A5, Vietna

Community-level consumption of antibiotics according to the AWaRe (Access, Watch, Reserve) classification in rural Vietnam

Objectives To review community-level consumption of antibiotics in rural Vietnam, according to the WHO Access, Watch, Reserve (AWaRe) classification of 2019, and identify factors associated with the choice of these antibiotics. Methods In this cross-sectional study, data on antibiotic purchases were collected through a customer exit survey of 20 community antibiotic suppliers in Ba Vi District, Hanoi, between September 2017 and July 2018. Antibiotic consumption was estimated through the number of antibiotic encounters, the number of DDDs supplied and the number of treatment days (DOTs) with antibiotics, and analysed according to the AWaRe classification. The factors associated with watch-group antibiotic supply were identified through multivariable logistic regression analysis. Results In total, there were 1342 antibiotic encounters, with access-group antibiotics supplied in 792 encounters (59.0%), watch-group antibiotics supplied in 527 encounters (39.3%) and not-recommended antibiotics supplied in 23 encounters (1.7%). No reserve-group antibiotics were supplied. In children, the consumption of watch-group antibiotics dominated in all three measures (54.8% of encounters, 53.0% of DOTs and 53.6% of DDDs). Factors associated with a higher likelihood of watch-group antibiotic supply were: private pharmacy (OR, 4.23; 95% CI, 2.8–6.38; P < 0.001), non-prescription antibiotic sale (OR, 2.62; 95% CI, 1.78–3.87; P < 0.001) and children (OR, 2.56; 95% CI, 1.84–3.55; P < 0.001). Conclusions High consumption of watch-group antibiotics was observed, especially for use in children. The frequent supply of watch-group antibiotics at private pharmacies reconfirms the need for implementing pharmacy-targeted interventions in Vietnam

Identifying context-specific domains for assessing antimicrobial stewardship programmes in Asia: protocol for a scoping review

Introduction:&nbsp;Antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) is an important strategy to control antimicrobial resistance. Resources are available to provide guidance for design and implementation of AMS programmes, however these may have limited applicability in resource-limited settings including those in Asia. This scoping review aims to identify context-specific domains and items for the development of a healthcare facility (HCF)-level tool to guide AMS implementation in Asia. Methods and analysis:&nbsp;This review is the first step in a larger project to assess AMS implementation, needs and gaps in Asia. We will employ a deductive qualitative approach to identify locally appropriate domains and items of AMS implementation guided by Nilsen and Bernhardsson&rsquo;s contextual dimensions. This process is also informed by discussions from a technical advisory group coordinated by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention to develop an AMS HCF-level assessment tool for low-income and middle-income countries. We will review English-language documents that discuss HCF-level implementation, including those describing frameworks, components/elements or recommendations for design, implementation or assessment globally and specific to Asia. We have performed the search in August&ndash;September 2021 including general electronic databases (MEDLINE, Embase, Web of Science and Google Scholar), region-specific databases, national action plans, grey literature sources and reference lists to identify eligible documents. Country-specific documents will be restricted to countries in three subregions: South Asia, East Asia and Southeast Asia. Codes and themes will be derived through a content analysis, classified following the predefined context dimensions and used for developing domains and items of the assessment tool. Ethics and dissemination:&nbsp;Results from this review will feed into our stepwise process for developing a context-specific HCF-level assessment tool for AMS programmes to assess the implementation status, identify intervention opportunities and monitor progress over time. The process will be done in consultation with local stakeholders, the end-users of the generated knowledge.</p

Perceptions, views and practices regarding antibiotic prescribing and stewardship among hospital physicians in Jakarta, Indonesia: a questionnaire-based survey

Objectives Antibiotic overuse is one of the main drivers of antimicrobial resistance (AMR), especially in low-income and middle-income countries. This study aimed to understand the perceptions and views towards AMR, antibiotic prescribing practice and antimicrobial stewardship (AMS) among hospital physicians in Jakarta, Indonesia. Design Cross-sectional, self-administered questionnaire-based survey, with descriptive statistics, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) to identify distinct underlying constructs in the dataset, and multivariable linear regression of factor scores to analyse physician subgroups. Setting Six public and private acute-care hospitals in Jakarta in 2019. Participants 1007 of 1896 (53.1% response rate) antibiotic prescribing physicians. Results Physicians acknowledged the significance of AMR and contributing factors, rational antibiotic prescribing, and purpose and usefulness of AMS. However, this conflicted with reported suboptimal local hospital practices, such as room cleaning, hand hygiene and staff education, and views regarding antibiotic decision making. These included insufficiently applying AMS principles and utilising microbiology, lack of confidence in prescribing decisions and defensive prescribing due to pervasive diagnostic uncertainty, fear of patient deterioration or because patients insisted. EFA identified six latent factors (overall Crohnbach’s α=0.85): awareness of AMS activities; awareness of AMS purpose; views regarding rational antibiotic prescribing; confidence in antibiotic prescribing decisions; perception of AMR as a significant problem; and immediate actions to contain AMR. Factor scores differed across hospitals, departments, work experience and medical hierarchy. Conclusions AMS implementation in Indonesian hospitals is challenged by institutional, contextual and diagnostic vulnerabilities, resulting in externalising AMR instead of recognising it as a local problem. Appropriate recognition of the contextual determinants of antibiotic prescribing decision making will be critical to change physicians’ attitudes and develop context-specific AMS interventions

Improving antibiotic prescribing for community-acquired pneumonia in a provincial hospital in Northern Vietnam

Objectives To test the effectiveness of a quality improvement programme to promote adherence to national quality standards (QS) for patients hospitalized with community-acquired pneumonia (CAP), exploring the factors that hindered improvements in clinical practice. Methods An improvement bundle aligned to the QS was deployed using plan-do-study-act methodology in a 600 bed hospital in northern Vietnam from July 2018 to April 2019. Proposed care improvements included CURB65 score guided hospitalization, timely diagnosis and inpatient antibiotic treatment review to limit the spectrum and duration of IV antibiotic use. Interviews with medical staff were conducted to better understand the barriers for QS implementation. Results The study found that improvements were made in CURB65 score documentation and radiology results available within 4 h (P < 0.05). There were no significant changes in the other elements of the QS studied. We documented institutional barriers relating to the health reimbursement mechanism and staff cultural barriers relating to acceptance and belief as significant impediments to implementation of the standards. Conclusions Interventions led to some process changes, but these were not utilized by clinicians to improve patient management. Institutional and behavioural barriers documented may inhibit wider national uptake of the QS. National system changes with longer term support and investment to address local behavioural barriers are likely to be crucial for future improvements in the management of CAP, and potentially other hospitalized conditions, in Vietnam

Community-based antibiotic access and use in six low-income and middle-income countries: a mixed-method approach

Background Antimicrobial misuse is common in low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs), and this practice is a driver of antibiotic resistance. We compared community-based antibiotic access and use practices across communities in LMICs to identify contextually specific targets for interventions to improve antibiotic use practices. Methods We did quantitative and qualitative assessments of antibiotic access and use in six LMICs across Africa (Mozambique, Ghana, and South Africa) and Asia (Bangladesh, Vietnam, and Thailand) over a 2·5-year study period (July 1, 2016–Dec 31, 2018). We did quantitative assessments of community antibiotic access and use through supplier mapping, customer exit interviews, and household surveys. These quantitative assessments were triangulated with qualitative drug supplier and consumer interviews and discussions. Findings Vietnam and Bangladesh had the largest proportions of non-licensed antibiotic dispensing points. For mild illness, drug stores were the most common point of contact when seeking antibiotics in most countries, except South Africa and Mozambique, where public facilities were most common. Self-medication with antibiotics was found to be widespread in Vietnam (55·2% of antibiotics dispensed without prescription), Bangladesh (45·7%), and Ghana (36·1%), but less so in Mozambique (8·0%), South Africa (1·2%), and Thailand (3·9%). Self-medication was considered to be less time consuming, cheaper, and overall, more convenient than accessing them through health-care facilities. Factors determining where treatment was sought often involved relevant policies, trust in the supplier and the drug, disease severity, and whether the antibiotic was intended for a child. Confusion regarding how to identify oral antibiotics was revealed in both Africa and Asia. Interpretation Contextual complexities and differences between countries with different incomes, policy frameworks, and cultural norms were revealed. These contextual differences render a single strategy inadequate and instead necessitate context-tailored, integrated intervention packages to improve antibiotic use in LMICs as part of global efforts to combat antibiotic resistance. Funding Wellcome Trust and Volkswagen Foundation

Drivers of Inter-individual Variation in Dengue Viral Load Dynamics

Dengue is a vector-borne viral disease of humans that endemically circulates in many tropical and subtropical regions worldwide. Infection with dengue can result in a range of disease outcomes. A considerable amount of research has sought to improve our understanding of this variation in disease outcomes and to identify predictors of severe disease. Contributing to this research, patterns of viral load in dengue infected patients have been quantified, with analyses indicating that peak viral load levels, rates of viral load decline, and time to peak viremia are useful predictors of severe disease. Here, we take a complementary approach to understanding patterns of clinical manifestation and inter-individual variation in viral load dynamics. Specifically, we statistically fit mathematical within-host models of dengue to individual-level viral load data to test virological and immunological hypotheses explaining inter-individual variation in dengue viral load. We choose between alternative models using model selection criteria to determine which hypotheses are best supported by the data. We first show that the cellular immune response plays an important role in regulating viral load in secondary dengue infections. We then provide statistical support for the process of antibody-dependent enhancement (but not original antigenic sin) in the development of severe disease in secondary dengue infections. Finally, we show statistical support for serotype-specific differences in viral infectivity rates, with infectivity rates of dengue serotypes 2 and 3 exceeding those of serotype 1. These results contribute to our understanding of dengue viral load patterns and their relationship to the development of severe dengue disease. They further have implications for understanding how dengue transmissibility may depend on the immune status of infected individuals and the identity of the infecting serotype