Nonlinear models for estimating GSFC travel requirements

A methodology is presented for estimating travel requirements for a particular period of time. Travel models were generated using nonlinear regression analysis techniques on a data base of FY-72 and FY-73 information from 79 GSFC projects. Although the subject matter relates to GSFX activities, the type of analysis used and the manner of selecting the relevant variables would be of interest to other NASA centers, government agencies, private corporations and, in general, any organization with a significant travel budget. Models were developed for each of six types of activity: flight projects (in-house and out-of-house), experiments on non-GSFC projects, international projects, ART/SRT, data analysis, advanced studies, tracking and data, and indirects

Alternative causal inference methods in population health research: Evaluating tradeoffs and triangulating evidence.

Population health researchers from different fields often address similar substantive questions but rely on different study designs, reflecting their home disciplines. This is especially true in studies involving causal inference, for which semantic and substantive differences inhibit interdisciplinary dialogue and collaboration. In this paper, we group nonrandomized study designs into two categories: those that use confounder-control (such as regression adjustment or propensity score matching) and those that rely on an instrument (such as instrumental variables, regression discontinuity, or differences-in-differences approaches). Using the Shadish, Cook, and Campbell framework for evaluating threats to validity, we contrast the assumptions, strengths, and limitations of these two approaches and illustrate differences with examples from the literature on education and health. Across disciplines, all methods to test a hypothesized causal relationship involve unverifiable assumptions, and rarely is there clear justification for exclusive reliance on one method. Each method entails trade-offs between statistical power, internal validity, measurement quality, and generalizability. The choice between confounder-control and instrument-based methods should be guided by these tradeoffs and consideration of the most important limitations of previous work in the area. Our goals are to foster common understanding of the methods available for causal inference in population health research and the tradeoffs between them; to encourage researchers to objectively evaluate what can be learned from methods outside one's home discipline; and to facilitate the selection of methods that best answer the investigator's scientific questions

Defect-mediated turbulence in systems with local deterministic chaos

We show that defect-mediated turbulence can exist in media where the underlying local dynamics is deterministically chaotic. While many of the characteristics of defect-mediated turbulence, such as the exponential decay of correlations and a squared Poissonian distribution for the number of defects, are identical to those seen in oscillatory media, the fluctuations in the number of defects differ significantly. The power spectra suggest the existence of underlying correlations that lead to a different and non-universal scaling structure in chaotic media.Comment: 4 pages, 5 figure

The role of the Intermediate Care Team in detecting and responding to loneliness in older clients

The Intermediate Care Team (ICT) supports patients in their own homes to manage complex needs. They are ideally placed in the community to identify older adults at risk of loneliness. However, little is known about how ICT professionals perceive, detect, or respond to loneliness in their clients. This study explores ICT professional’s attitudes to loneliness in the context of perceived service priorities and their experiences of managing loneliness in their clients. Eight ICT professionals (n=2 physiotherapists, n=3 occupational therapists, n=3 nurses) took part in semi-structured interviews. Data was analysed thematically using framework analysis, applying the Theory of Planned Behaviour as an interpretive framework. ICT professionals believed loneliness was a significant issue for many of their older clients but was a low priority for ICT services. Study participants believed that loneliness often goes undetected because it is an issue that is difficult to measure objectively. Barriers to managing loneliness included high work-load, unsatisfactory referral systems, and lack of close working with social-care and independent sector services. Introducing brief but reliable loneliness assessments into routine practice, receiving training on detecting and managing loneliness, and improving working relationships with social care and independent sector services were highlighted as strategies that could improve the detection and management of loneliness in ICT clients

Reduction and reconstruction of stochastic differential equations via symmetries

An algorithmic method to exploit a general class of infinitesimal symmetries for reducing stochastic differential equations is presented and a natural definition of reconstruction, inspired by the classical reconstruction by quadratures, is proposed. As a side result the well-known solution formula for linear one-dimensional stochastic differential equations is obtained within this symmetry approach. The complete procedure is applied to several examples with both theoretical and applied relevance

Overlapping Patterns of Rapid Evolution in the Nucleic Acid Sensors cGAS and OAS1 Suggest a Common Mechanism of Pathogen Antagonism and Escape

A diverse subset of pattern recognition receptors (PRRs) detects pathogen-associated nucleic acids to initiate crucial innate immune responses in host organisms. Reflecting their importance for host defense, pathogens encode various countermeasures to evade or inhibit these immune effectors. PRRs directly engaged by pathogen inhibitors often evolve under recurrent bouts of positive selection that have been described as molecular ‘arms races.’ Cyclic GMP-AMP synthase (cGAS) was recently identified as a key PRR. Upon binding cytoplasmic double-stranded DNA (dsDNA) from various viruses, cGAS generates the small nucleotide secondary messenger cGAMP to signal activation of innate defenses. Here we report an evolutionary history of cGAS with recurrent positive selection in the primate lineage. Recent studies indicate a high degree of structural similarity between cGAS and 2’-5’-oligoadenylate synthase 1 (OAS1), a PRR that detects double-stranded RNA (dsRNA), despite low sequence identity between the respective genes. We present comprehensive comparative evolutionary analysis of cGAS and OAS1 primate sequences and observe positive selection at nucleic acid binding interfaces and distributed throughout both genes. Our data revealed homologous regions with strong signatures of positive selection, suggesting common mechanisms employed by unknown pathogen encoded inhibitors and similar modes of evasion from antagonism. Our analysis of cGAS diversification also identified alternately spliced forms missing multiple sites under positive selection. Further analysis of selection on the OAS family in primates, which comprises OAS1, OAS2, OAS3 and OASL, suggests a hypothesis where gene duplications and domain fusion events result in paralogs that provide another means of escaping pathogen inhibitors. Together our comparative evolutionary analysis of cGAS and OAS provides new insights into distinct mechanisms by which key molecular sentinels of the innate immune system have adapted to circumvent viral-encoded inhibitors