Utilising identifier error variation in linkage of large administrative data sources.

BACKGROUND: Linkage of administrative data sources often relies on probabilistic methods using a set of common identifiers (e.g. sex, date of birth, postcode). Variation in data quality on an individual or organisational level (e.g. by hospital) can result in clustering of identifier errors, violating the assumption of independence between identifiers required for traditional probabilistic match weight estimation. This potentially introduces selection bias to the resulting linked dataset. We aimed to measure variation in identifier error rates in a large English administrative data source (Hospital Episode Statistics; HES) and to incorporate this information into match weight calculation. METHODS: We used 30,000 randomly selected HES hospital admissions records of patients aged 0-1, 5-6 and 18-19 years, for 2011/2012, linked via NHS number with data from the Personal Demographic Service (PDS; our gold-standard). We calculated identifier error rates for sex, date of birth and postcode and used multi-level logistic regression to investigate associations with individual-level attributes (age, ethnicity, and gender) and organisational variation. We then derived: i) weights incorporating dependence between identifiers; ii) attribute-specific weights (varying by age, ethnicity and gender); and iii) organisation-specific weights (by hospital). Results were compared with traditional match weights using a simulation study. RESULTS: Identifier errors (where values disagreed in linked HES-PDS records) or missing values were found in 0.11% of records for sex and date of birth and in 53% of records for postcode. Identifier error rates differed significantly by age, ethnicity and sex (p < 0.0005). Errors were less frequent in males, in 5-6 year olds and 18-19 year olds compared with infants, and were lowest for the Asian ethic group. A simulation study demonstrated that substantial bias was introduced into estimated readmission rates in the presence of identifier errors. Attribute- and organisational-specific weights reduced this bias compared with weights estimated using traditional probabilistic matching algorithms. CONCLUSIONS: We provide empirical evidence on variation in rates of identifier error in a widely-used administrative data source and propose a new method for deriving match weights that incorporates additional data attributes. Our results demonstrate that incorporating information on variation by individual-level characteristics can help to reduce bias due to linkage error

Probabilistic linkage to enhance deterministic algorithms and reduce data linkage errors in hospital administrative data.

BACKGROUND: The pseudonymisation algorithm used to link together episodes of care belonging to the same patients in England (HESID) has never undergone any formal evaluation, to determine the extent of data linkage error. OBJECTIVE: To quantify improvements in linkage accuracy from adding probabilistic linkage to existing deterministic HESID algorithms. METHODS: Inpatient admissions to NHS hospitals in England (Hospital Episode Statistics, HES) over 17 years (1998 to 2015) for a sample of patients (born 13/28th of months in 1992/1998/2005/2012). We compared the existing deterministic algorithm with one that included an additional probabilistic step, in relation to a reference standard created using enhanced probabilistic matching with additional clinical and demographic information. Missed and false matches were quantified and the impact on estimates of hospital readmission within one year were determined. RESULTS: HESID produced a high missed match rate, improving over time (8.6% in 1998 to 0.4% in 2015). Missed matches were more common for ethnic minorities, those living in areas of high socio-economic deprivation, foreign patients and those with 'no fixed abode'. Estimates of the readmission rate were biased for several patient groups owing to missed matches, which was reduced for nearly all groups. CONCLUSION: Probabilistic linkage of HES reduced missed matches and bias in estimated readmission rates, with clear implications for commissioning, service evaluation and performance monitoring of hospitals. The existing algorithm should be modified to address data linkage error, and a retrospective update of the existing data would address existing linkage errors and their implications

Local area unemployment, individual health and workforce exit: ONS Longitudinal Study

This work was jointly funded by the Economic and Social Research Center (ESRC) and the United Kingdom’s Medical Research Council, under the Lifelong Health and Wellbeing Cross-Council Programme initiative [ES/L002892/1]. CeLSIUS is supported by the ESRC Census of Population Programme (Award Ref: ES/ K000365/1)

Sitting time, fidgeting and all-cause mortality in the UK Women's Cohort Study

Introduction: Sedentary behaviours (including sitting) may increase risk of mortality independently of physical activity level. Little is known about how fidgeting behaviours might modify the association. Methods: Data were drawn from the UK Women’s Cohort Study. In 1999/2002, 12,778 women (age 37 to 78) provided data on average daily sitting time, overall fidgeting (irrespective of posture), and a range of relevant covariates including physical activity, diet, smoking status and alcohol consumption. Participants were followed for mortality over a mean of 12 years. Proportional hazards Cox regression models were used to estimate the relative risk of mortality in the high (vs. low) and medium (vs. low) sitting time groups. Results: Fidgeting modified the risk associated with sitting time (p value for interaction = 0.04), leading us to separate groups for analysis. Adjusting for a range of covariates, sitting for 7+ hours/day (vs. <5 hours/day) was associated with 30% increased risk of all-cause mortality (HR = 1.30, 95% CI 1.02, 1.66) only among women in the low fidgeting group. Among women in the high fidgeting group, sitting for 5/6 (vs. <5 hrs/day) was associated with decreased risk of mortality (HR = 0.63, 95% CI 0.43, 0.91), adjusting for a range of covariates. There was no increased risk of mortality from longer sitting time in the middle and high fidgeting groups. Conclusions: Fidgeting may reduce the risk of all-cause mortality associated with excessive sitting time. More detailed and better validated measures of fidgeting should be identified in other studies in order to replicate these findings and identity mechanisms, particularly measures that distinguish fidgeting in a seated from standing posture

Sexual orientation identity and tobacco and hazardous alcohol use: findings from a cross-sectional English population survey

Objectives: To assess the association between tobacco and hazardous alcohol use and sexual orientation and whether such an association could be explained by other sociodemographic characteristics. Design: Cross-sectional household survey conducted in 2014–2016. Setting: England, UK. Participants: Representative English population sample (pooled n=43 866). Main outcomes: Sexual orientation identity (lesbian/gay, bisexual, heterosexual, prefer-not-to-say); current tobacco and hazardous alcohol use (defined as Alcohol Use Disorders Identification Test Score ≥8). All outcomes were self-reported. Results: Due to interactions between sexual orientation and gender for substance use, analyses were stratified by gender. Tobacco use prevalence was significantly higher among lesbian/gay (women: 24.9%, 95% CI 19.2% to 32.6%; men: 25.9%, 95% CI 21.3% to 31.0%) and bisexual participants (women: 32.4%, 95% CI 25.9% to 39.6%; men: 30.7%, 95% CI 23.7% to 30.7%) and significantly lower for prefer-not-to-say participants in women (15.5%, 95% CI 13.5% to 17.8%) but not men (22.7%, 95% CI 20.3% to 25.3%) compared with heterosexual participants (women: 17.5%, 95% CI 17.0% to 18.0%; men: 20.4%, 95% CI 19.9% to 21.0%; p<0.001 for omnibus test). Similarly, hazardous alcohol use was significantly more prevalent for lesbian/gay (women: 19.0%, 95% CI 14.0% to 25.3%; men: 30.0%, 25.2%–35.3%) and bisexual participants (women: 24.4%, 95% CI 18.7% to 31.3%; men: 24.3%, 95% CI 17.9% to 32.1%) and lower for prefer-not-to-say participants (women: 4.1%, 95% CI 3.0% to 5.4%; men: 13.7%; 95% CI 11.8% to 16.0%) compared with heterosexuals (women: 8.3%, 95% CI 7.9% to 8.7%; men: 18.4%, 95% CI 17.9% to 18.9%; p<0.001 for omnibus test). However, after adjusting for sociodemographic confounders, tobacco use was similar across all sexual orientation groups among both women and men. By contrast, sexual orientation differences in hazardous alcohol use remained even after adjustment among women but not for bisexual and gay men. Conclusions: In England, higher rates of tobacco use among sexual minority men and women appear to be attributable to other sociodemographic factors. Higher rates of hazardous alcohol use among sexual minority men may also be attributable to these factors, whereas this is not the case for sexual minority women

An Integrated Model of Condom Use in Sub-Saharan African Youth: A Meta-Analysis

Objective: We tested an integrated social- cognitive model derived from multiple theories of the determinants of young peoples' condom use in Sub-Saharan Africa. The model comprised seven social- cognitive antecedents of condom use: Attitudes, norms, control, risk perceptions, barriers, intentions, and previous condom use. Method: We conducted a systematic search of studies including effects between at least one model construct and intended or actual condom use in young people from sub-Saharan African countries. Fifty-five studies comprising 72 independent data sets were included and subjected to random-effects meta-analysis. Demographic and methodological variables were coded as moderators. Hypotheses of the integrated model were tested using meta-analytic structural equation modeling. Results: The meta-analysis revealed significant nontrivial sample-weighted correlations among most model constructs. Moderator analyses revealed differences in six correlations for studies that included a formative research component relative to studies that did not. There was little evidence of systematic moderation of relations among model constructs by other candidate moderators. Meta-analytic structural equation models revealed significant direct effects of attitudes, norms, and control on condom use intentions, and of intention, control, and barriers on condom use. Including past condom use increased explained variance in condom use intentions and behavior but did not attenuate model effects. There were also significant indirect effects of attitudes, norms, and control on condom use through intentions. Conclusions: Findings provide preliminary evidence to support the integrated condom use model in sub-Saharan African youth. The model provides guidance on potential targets for improving the effectiveness of condom promotion interventions

‘Super Kids’: Regulating the Use of Cognitive and Psychological Enhancement in Children

With headlines such as ‘Get Smart Drugs Out of the Closet, Scientists Urge’ and ‘Smart Drugs for Straight As’,1 discussions about individuals taking psychopharmaceutical drugs to enhance their cognitive performance2 are increasingly in the public domain. In the US, drugs such as Modafinil are being used by university students because they provide a more targeted, powerful mental ‘sharpening’ than traditional stimulants such as caffeine in its various forms.3 Such drugs are readily available over the internet,4 and the US experience is reflected in the UK.5 There have been calls from a former governmental Chief Scientific Officer to make ‘smart’ pills available for all.6 His report noted scientists’ calls for the removal of restrictions on cognitive enhancers that have been dubbed ‘cosmetic neurology’ and ‘nip and tuck’ for the mind.7 It is perhaps unsurprising that many of these drugs are already being used ‘off-label’, whereby an approved drug may be used in ways not specifically sanctioned, although it is likely to be supported by scientific evidence.8 The prospect of older individuals avoiding debilitating conditions such as Alzheimer’s disease is exciting, and the popular perception is that there are no obvious short-term harmful effects.9 However, these psychopharmacological drugs do have sideeffects and have the potential to become addictive.10 In addition, they target molecular events underlying cognition and emotion,11 and there is a concern that there may be long-term consequences such as cognitive decline, even when taken by the young.12 Enhancement of psychological traits, such as personality or cognitive ability, has particular ethical, legal and social implications when applied to children