Output Volatility in Emerging Market and Developing Countries: What Explains the “Great Moderation” of 1970-2003?

Output volatility and the size of output drops have declined across groups of nontransition countries studied in this paper over the past three decades, but have remained considerably higher in developing countries than in industrial countries. The paper employs a Bayesian latent dynamic factor model to decompose output growth into global, regional, and country-specific components. The favorable trends in output volatility and large output drops in developing countries are found to have resulted from lower country-specific volatility and more benign country-specific events. Evidence from cross-section regressions over the 1970–2003 period suggests that the volatility of discretionary fiscal spending and terms of trade volatility together with exchange rate flexibility were key determinants of volatility and large output drops.output volatility, output drops, fiscal policy, exchange rate policy, developing countries

The polar cap absorption on July 7-10, 1966

Time history analysis for polar cap absorption of solar flare in July, 196

Workers' Remittances and the Equilibrium Real Exchange Rate: Theory and Evidence

This paper investigates the impact of workers’ remittances on equilibrium real exchange rates (ERER) in recipient economies. Using a small open economy model, it shows that standard “Dutch Disease” results of appreciation are substantially weakened or even overturned depending on: degree of openness, factor mobility between domestic sectors, and countercyclicality of remittances; the share of consumption in tradables; and the sensitivity of a country’s risk premium to remittance flows. Panel integration techniques on a large set of countries provide support for these analytical results, and show that ERER appreciation in response to sustained remittance flows tends to be quantitatively small.Remittances, Real Exchange Rate, Dutch Disease

Slow onset type PCA events and associated pre-SSC polar geomagnetic disturbances

Observation of polar geomagnetic disturbances in connection with polar cap absorptions of slow onset typ

Do Worker Remittances Reduce Output Volatility in Developing Countries?

Remittance inflows have increased considerably in recent years and are large relative to the size of many recipient economies. The theoretical and empirical effects of remittance inflows on output growth volatility are, however, ambiguous. On the one hand, remittances have been a remarkably stable source of income, relative to other private and public flows, and they seem to be compensatory in nature, rising when the home countryÂ’s economy suffers a downturn. On the other hand, the labor supply effects induced by altruistic remittances could cause the output effects associated with technology shocks to be magnified. This paper finds robust evidence for a sample of 70 remittance-recipient countries, including 16 advanced economies and 54 developing countries that remittances have a negative effect on output growth volatility, thereby supporting the notion that remittance flows are a stabilizing influence on output.Remittances, output volatility, developing countries

EFSA CEF Panel (EFSA Panel on Food Contact Materials, Enzymes, Flavourings and Processing Aids), 2014. Scientific Opinion on Flavouring Group Evaluation 74, Revision 3 (FGE.74Rev3): Consideration of Simple Aliphatic Sulphides and Thiols evaluated by the JECFA (53rd and 61st meeting) Structurally related to Aliphatic and Alicyclic Mono-, Di-, Tri-, and Polysulphides with or wi thout Additional Oxygenated Functional Groups from Chemical Group 20 evaluated by EFSA in FGE.08Rev5 (2012)

The Panel on Food Contact Materials, Enzymes, Flavourings and Processing Aids of the European Food Safety Authority was requested to consider evaluations of flavouring substances assessed since 2000 by the Joint FAO/WHO Expert Committee on Food Additives (the JECFA), and to decide whether further evaluation is necessary, as laid down in Commission Regulation (EC) No 1565/2000. The present consideration concerns a group of 19 simple aliphatic sulphides and thiols evaluated by the JECFA at the 53rd meeting in 1999 and the 61st meeting in 2003. The substances were evaluated through a stepwise approach that integrates information on structure-activity relationships, intake from current uses, toxicological threshold of concern, and available data on metabolism and toxicity. For nine substances [FL-no: 12.088, 12.179, 12.198, 12.212, 12.238, 12.239, 12.255, 12.257 and 12.291] considered in this FGE, the Panel concluded that they would pose “No safety concern at estimated levels of intake as flavouring substances” based on the MSDI approach. Besides the safety assessment of these flavouring substances, the specifications for the materials of commerce have also been considered for the substances evaluated through the Procedure and for all nine substances, the information is adequate. Thus, the Panel concluded that nine substances [FL-no: 12.088, 12.179, 12.198, 12.212, 12.238, 12.239, 12.255, 12.257 and 12.291] do not give rise to safety concern at their levels of dietary intake, estimated on the basis of the MSDI approach. For 10 candidate substances in FGE.74Rev3 [FL-no: 12.009, 12.013, 12.020, 12.023, 12.045, 12.074, 12.155, 12.169, 12.241 and 12.280] evaluated through the Procedure, the Panel concluded that additional toxicity data are required

EFSA Panel on Food Contact Materials, Enzymes, Flavourings and Processing Aids (CEF); Scientific Opinion on Flavouring Group Evaluation 08, Revision 5 (FGE.08Rev5): Aliphatic and alicyclic mono-, di-, tri-, and polysulphides with or without additional oxygenated functional groups from chemical groups 20 and 30

<p>The CEF Panel of the European Food Safety Authority was requested to evaluate 80 flavouring substances in the Flavouring Group Evaluation 08, Revision 4, using the Procedure in Commission Regulation (EC) No 1565/2000. Since the publication of the last revision of this FGE, the EFSA has been requested to evaluate additional toxicological data submitted for two flavouring substances, one substance 2,5-dihydroxy-2,5-dimethyl-1,4-dithiane [FL-no: 15.006], which support the evaluation of the candidate substance 2,5-dihydroxy-1,4-dithiane [FL-no: 15.134] and one on the candidate substance spiro(2,4-dithia-1-methyl-8-oxabicyclo[3.3.0]octane-3,3’-(1’-oxa-2’-methyl)-cyclopentane) and spiro(2,4-dithia-6-methyl-7-oxabicyclo[3.3.0]octane-3,3’-(1’-oxa-2’-methyl)-cyclopentane) [FL-no: 15.007], which have been included in the present revision of FGE.08. For the substances methyl methanethiosulphonate [FL-no: 12.159], 2-methylbutane-2-thiol [FL-no: 12.172], 2-methylpropane-2-thiol [FL-no: 12.174], ethyl-2-mercapto-2-methyl propanoate [FL-no: 12.304] and 2,4,4-trimethyl-1,3-oxathiane [FL-no: 16.057] there is an indication of a genotoxic potential in vitro. Therefore, without further genotoxicity data, the Panel concluded that the Procedure could not be applied to these five substances. For four substances, 3-mercaptooctanal [FL-no: 12.268], 3-mercaptodecanal [FL-no: 12.269], methanedithiol diacetate [FL-no: 12.271] and 3,5-dimethyl-1,2-dithiolane-4-one [FL-no: 12.295] no data on use as flavouring substances in Europe are available and no intake figures could be calculated, which preclude the evaluation of the four substances using the Procedure. The remaining 71 substances were evaluated through a stepwise approach that integrates information on the structure-activity relationships, intake from current uses, toxicological threshold of concern, and available data on metabolism and toxicity. The Panel concluded that 59 substances do not rise safety concerns at their levels of dietary intake, estimated on the basis of the MSDI approach. For 12 substances [FL-no: 12.093, 12.094, 12.097, 12.100, 12.112, 12.116, 12.120, 12.164, 12.167, 12.199, 15.102 and 15.125], evaluated through the Procedure, no appropriate NOAEL was available and additional data are required. The specifications for the materials of commerce have also been considered and for three substances, information on the specifications is lacking.</p&gt