The non-Gaussianity of the cosmic shear likelihood - or: How odd is the Chandra Deep Field South?

(abridged) We study the validity of the approximation of a Gaussian cosmic shear likelihood. We estimate the true likelihood for a fiducial cosmological model from a large set of ray-tracing simulations and investigate the impact of non-Gaussianity on cosmological parameter estimation. We investigate how odd the recently reported very low value of $\sigma_8$ really is as derived from the \textit{Chandra} Deep Field South (CDFS) using cosmic shear by taking the non-Gaussianity of the likelihood into account as well as the possibility of biases coming from the way the CDFS was selected. We find that the cosmic shear likelihood is significantly non-Gaussian. This leads to both a shift of the maximum of the posterior distribution and a significantly smaller credible region compared to the Gaussian case. We re-analyse the CDFS cosmic shear data using the non-Gaussian likelihood. Assuming that the CDFS is a random pointing, we find $\sigma_8=0.68_{-0.16}^{+0.09}$ for fixed $\Omega_{\rm m}=0.25$. In a WMAP5-like cosmology, a value equal to or lower than this would be expected in $\approx 5$ of the times. Taking biases into account arising from the way the CDFS was selected, which we model as being dependent on the number of haloes in the CDFS, we obtain $\sigma_8 = 0.71^{+0.10}_{-0.15}$. Combining the CDFS data with the parameter constraints from WMAP5 yields $\Omega_{\rm m} = 0.26^{+0.03}_{-0.02}$ and $\sigma_8 = 0.79^{+0.04}_{-0.03}$ for a flat universe.Comment: 18 pages, 16 figures, accepted for publication in A&A; New Bayesian treatment of field selection bia

Strong lensing optical depths in a \LambdaCDM universe

We investigate strong gravitational lensing in the concordance $\Lambda$CDM cosmology by carrying out ray-tracing along past light cones through the Millennium Simulation, the largest simulation of cosmic structure formation ever carried out. We extend previous ray-tracing methods in order to take full advantage of the large volume and the excellent spatial and mass resolution of the simulation. As a function of source redshift we evaluate the probability that an image will be highly magnified, will be highly elongated or will be one of a set of multiple images. We show that such strong lensing events can almost always be traced to a single dominant lensing object and we study the mass and redshift distribution of these primary lenses. We fit analytic models to the simulated dark halos in order to study how our optical depth measurements are affected by the limited resolution of the simulation and of the lensing planes that we construct from it. We conclude that such effects lead us to underestimate total strong-lensing cross sections by about 15 percent. This is smaller than the effects expected from our neglect of the baryonic components of galaxies. Finally we investigate whether strong lensing is enhanced by material in front of or behind the primary lens. Although strong lensing lines-of-sight are indeed biased towards higher than average mean densities, this additional matter typically contributes only a few percent of the total surface density.Comment: version accepted for publicatio

Constrained probability distributions of correlation functions

Context: Two-point correlation functions are used throughout cosmology as a measure for the statistics of random fields. When used in Bayesian parameter estimation, their likelihood function is usually replaced by a Gaussian approximation. However, this has been shown to be insufficient. Aims: For the case of Gaussian random fields, we search for an exact probability distribution of correlation functions, which could improve the accuracy of future data analyses. Methods: We use a fully analytic approach, first expanding the random field in its Fourier modes, and then calculating the characteristic function. Finally, we derive the probability distribution function using integration by residues. We use a numerical implementation of the full analytic formula to discuss the behaviour of this function. Results: We derive the univariate and bivariate probability distribution function of the correlation functions of a Gaussian random field, and outline how higher joint distributions could be calculated. We give the results in the form of mode expansions, but in one special case we also find a closed-form expression. We calculate the moments of the distribution and, in the univariate case, we discuss the Edgeworth expansion approximation. We also comment on the difficulties in a fast and exact numerical implementation of our results, and on possible future applications.Comment: 13 pages, 5 figures, updated to match version published in A&A (slightly expanded Sects. 5.3 and 6

A bias in cosmic shear from galaxy selection: results from ray-tracing simulations

We identify and study a previously unknown systematic effect on cosmic shear measurements, caused by the selection of galaxies used for shape measurement, in particular the rejection of close (blended) galaxy pairs. We use ray-tracing simulations based on the Millennium Simulation and a semi-analytical model of galaxy formation to create realistic galaxy catalogues. From these, we quantify the bias in the shear correlation functions by comparing measurements made from galaxy catalogues with and without removal of close pairs. A likelihood analysis is used to quantify the resulting shift in estimates of cosmological parameters. The filtering of objects with close neighbours (a) changes the redshift distribution of the galaxies used for correlation function measurements, and (b) correlates the number density of sources in the background with the density field in the foreground. This leads to a scale-dependent bias of the correlation function of several percent, translating into biases of cosmological parameters of similar amplitude. This makes this new systematic effect potentially harmful for upcoming and planned cosmic shear surveys. As a remedy, we propose and test a weighting scheme that can significantly reduce the bias.Comment: 9 pages, 9 figures, version accepted for publication in Astronomy & Astrophysic

Intrinsic galaxy shapes and alignments II: Modelling the intrinsic alignment contamination of weak lensing surveys

Intrinsic galaxy alignments constitute the major astrophysical systematic of forthcoming weak gravitational lensing surveys but also yield unique insights into galaxy formation and evolution. We build analytic models for the distribution of galaxy shapes based on halo properties extracted from the Millennium Simulation, differentiating between early- and late-type galaxies as well as central galaxies and satellites. The resulting ellipticity correlations are investigated for their physical properties and compared to a suite of current observations. The best-faring model is then used to predict the intrinsic alignment contamination of planned weak lensing surveys. We find that late-type galaxy models generally have weak intrinsic ellipticity correlations, marginally increasing towards smaller galaxy separation and higher redshift. The signal for early-type models at fixed halo mass strongly increases by three orders of magnitude over two decades in galaxy separation, and by one order of magnitude from z=0 to z=2. The intrinsic alignment strength also depends strongly on halo mass, but not on galaxy luminosity at fixed mass, or galaxy number density in the environment. We identify models that are in good agreement with all observational data, except that all models over-predict alignments of faint early-type galaxies. The best model yields an intrinsic alignment contamination of a Euclid-like survey between 0.5-10% at z>0.6 and on angular scales larger than a few arcminutes. Cutting 20% of red foreground galaxies using observer-frame colours can suppress this contamination by up to a factor of two.Comment: 23 pages, 14 figures; minor changes to match version published in MNRA

Dependence of cosmic shear covariances on cosmology - Impact on parameter estimation

In cosmic shear likelihood analyses the covariance is most commonly assumed to be constant in parameter space. Therefore, when calculating the covariance matrix (analytically or from simulations), its underlying cosmology should not influence the likelihood contours. We examine whether the aforementioned assumption holds and quantify how strong cosmic shear covariances vary within a reasonable parameter range. Furthermore, we examine the impact on likelihood contours when assuming different cosmologies in the covariance. We find that covariances vary significantly within the considered parameter range (Omega_m=[0.2;0.4], sigma_8=[0.6;1.0]) and that this has a non-negligible impact on the size of likelihood contours. This impact increases with increasing survey size, increasing number density of source galaxies, decreasing ellipticity noise, and when using non-Gaussian covariances. To improve on the assumption of a constant covariance we present two methods. The adaptive covariance is the most accurate method, but it is computationally expensive. To reduce the computational costs we give a scaling relation for covariances. As a second method we outline the concept of an iterative likelihood analysis. Here, we additionally account for non-Gaussianity using a ray-tracing covariance derived from the Millennium simulation.Comment: 11 pages, 8 figure

Weak lensing from space: first cosmological constraints from three-point shear statistics

We use weak lensing data from the Hubble Space Telescope COSMOS survey to measure the second- and third-moments of the cosmic shear field, estimated from about 450,000 galaxies with average redshift ~ 1.3. We measure two- and three-point shear statistics using a tree-code, dividing the signal in E, B and mixed components. We present a detection of the third-order moment of the aperture mass statistic and verify that the measurement is robust against systematic errors caused by point spread function (PSF) residuals and by the intrinsic alignments between galaxies. The amplitude of the measured three-point cosmic shear signal is in very good agreement with the predictions for a WMAP7 best-fit model, whereas the amplitudes of potential systematics are consistent with zero. We make use of three sets of large Lambda CDM simulations to test the accuracy of the cosmological predictions and to estimate the influence of the cosmology-dependent covariance. We perform a likelihood analysis using the measurement and find that the Omega_m-sigma_8 degeneracy direction is well fitted by the relation: sigma_8 (Omega_m/0.30)^(0.49)=0.78+0.11/-0.26. We present the first measurement of a more generalised three-point shear statistic and find a very good agreement with the WMAP7 best-fit cosmology. The cosmological interpretation of this measurement gives sigma_8 (Omega_m/0.30)^(0.46)=0.69 +0.08/-0.14. Furthermore, the combined likelihood analysis of this measurement with the measurement of the second order moment of the aperture mass improves the accuracy of the cosmological constraints, showing the high potential of this combination of measurements to infer cosmological constraints.Comment: 17 pages, 11 figures. MNRAS submitte

Forecasts of non-Gaussian parameter spaces using Box-Cox transformations

Forecasts of statistical constraints on model parameters using the Fisher matrix abound in many fields of astrophysics. The Fisher matrix formalism involves the assumption of Gaussianity in parameter space and hence fails to predict complex features of posterior probability distributions. Combining the standard Fisher matrix with Box-Cox transformations, we propose a novel method that accurately predicts arbitrary posterior shapes. The Box-Cox transformations are applied to parameter space to render it approximately multivariate Gaussian, performing the Fisher matrix calculation on the transformed parameters. We demonstrate that, after the Box-Cox parameters have been determined from an initial likelihood evaluation, the method correctly predicts changes in the posterior when varying various parameters of the experimental setup and the data analysis, with marginally higher computational cost than a standard Fisher matrix calculation. We apply the Box-Cox-Fisher formalism to forecast cosmological parameter constraints by future weak gravitational lensing surveys. The characteristic non-linear degeneracy between matter density parameter and normalisation of matter density fluctuations is reproduced for several cases, and the capabilities of breaking this degeneracy by weak lensing three-point statistics is investigated. Possible applications of Box-Cox transformations of posterior distributions are discussed, including the prospects for performing statistical data analysis steps in the transformed Gaussianised parameter space.Comment: 14 pages, 7 figures; minor changes to match version published in MNRA

Measuring cosmic shear with the ring statistics

Commonly used methods to decompose E- and B-modes in cosmic shear, namely the aperture mass dispersion and the E/B-mode shear correlation function, suffer from incomplete knowledge of the two-point correlation function (2PCF) on very small and/or very large scales. The ring statistics, the most recently developed cosmic shear measure, improves on this issue and is able to decompose E- and B-modes using a 2PCF measured on a finite interval. First, we improve on the ring statistics' filter function with respect to the signal-to-noise ratio. Second, we examine the ability of the ring statistics to constrain cosmology and compare the results to cosmological constraints obtained with the aperture mass dispersion. Third, we use the ring statistics to measure a cosmic shear signal from CFHTLS (Canada-France-Hawaii Telescope Legacy Survey) data. We consider a scale-dependent filter function for the ring statistics which improves its signal-to-noise ratio. In addition, we show that there exist filter functions which decompose E- and B-modes using a finite range of 2PCFs (EB-statistics) and have higher S/N ratio than the ring statistics. However, we find that data points of the latter are significantly less correlated than data points of the aperture mass dispersion and the EB-statistics. As a consequence the ring statistics is an ideal tool to identify remaining systematics accurately as a function of angular scale. We use the 2PCF of the latest CFHTLS analysis and therefrom calculate the ring statistics and its error bars.Comment: 10 pages, 5 figures, submitted to Astronomy and Astrophysic