Stoning in Iran: A Sexist and Overlooked Practice

This paper seeks to dissect and expose the ancient practice of stoning in Iran, and to analyze the injustices that are built into this punishment

Some Methods for Assessing the Need for Non-linear Models in Business Cycle Analysis and Forecasting

There is a long tradition in business cycle analysis of arguing that non-linear models are needed to explain the business cycle. In recent years many non-linear models have been fitted to data on GDP for many countries, but particularly for the U.S. In this paper we set our criteria to evaluate the success of non-linear models in explaining the cycle and then evaluate three recent models in the light of these criteria. We find that the models are capable of explaining the "shape" of expansions, something linear models cannot do, but do so at the cost of making expansions longer than they should be and in producing transition probabilities to recessions that are too low.business cyles, non-linear models

Growth and volatility regime switching models for New Zealand GDP data

This paper fits hidden Markov switching models to New Zealand GDP data. A primary objective is to better understand the utility of these methods for modelling growth and volatility regimes present in the New Zealand data and their interaction. Properties of the models are developed together with a description of the estimation methods, including use of the Expectation Maximisation (EM) algorithm. The models are fitted to New Zealand GDP and production sector growth rates to analyse changes in their mean and volatility over time. The paper discusses applications of the methodology to identifying changes in growth performances, and examines the timing of growth and volatility regime switching between production sectors. Conclusions to emerge are that, in contrast to the 1980s, New Zealand GDP growth experienced an unusually long period of time in high growth and low volatility regimes during the 1990s. The paper evaluates sector contributions to this 1990s experience and discusses directions for further development.Hidden Markov models; regime switching; growth; business cycles; volatility; production sectors; GDP.

On understandings of intention: a response to Wedgewood

In a recent paper, Wedgwood (2011) launches a simultaneous defense of intention recognition and a critique of the alleged neglect of cognition in interactional approaches to communicative interaction. In this paper, I argue that this simultaneous critique and defense is deeply flawed on a number of counts. First, the "looser" notion of intention that Wedgwood proposes glosses over and even confounds various levels or types of intention, and for this reason is ultimately not falsifiable. Second, in the course of his argumentation, he confounds intention with intentionality and agency. Third, his claim that a focus on "local" intentions offers a more "fine-grained" and "explanatory analysis" is completely unwarranted in light of close examination of the data at hand. I argue that such an approach instead generates speculation that is analytically unproductive, and, does not account for the cognitively interdependent inferences that underlie conversational interaction in addition to traditional monadic inferential processes. It is concluded that further discussions about the requirements that interaction places on cognition, including the question of the place of intention and intentionality can be productive, but only if researchers are cognizant of the different ways in which intention has been defined, and also the different analytical work to which intention is put by scholars in pragmatics

Calm after the Storm?: Supply-side contributions to New Zealand’s GDP volatility decline

The variance of New Zealand’s real GDP has declined since the mid-1980s. To investigate why, this paper decomposes the variance of chain-weighted estimates of production-based real GDP growth into sector shares, sector growth rate variances and co-variances. The principal explanation for the decline in GDP volatility is a fall in the sum of sector variances driven by a decline in the Services and Manufacturing sector production growth variances. Sector co-variances have had a dominant influence on the profile of GDP volatility and this influence has not diminished. Despite marked changes in sector shares, notably increases in Services and Primary sector shares and a decrease in the share of Manufacturing, this has not been a significant factor influencing the decline in GDP volatility. We postulate that policy interventions such as “Think Big”, regulatory interventions during the early 1980s, and the introduction of GST are key explanations for the higher volatility until the mid 1980s. Cessation of these interventions, deregulation and possibly changes in inventory management methods are important reasons why GDP volatility has fallen since then.Volatility, growth, production sector shares, manufacturing, services, primary, construction.

Intention in pragmatics

Arts, Education & Law Group, School of Languages and LinguisticsFull Tex

INFO2009 Group SD Poster - Computer Misuse

Group SD's poster for the INFO2009 coursework on Computer Misuse

GROUP SD COLLECTION ZIP

The collection of items for Group SD's coursework assignment