Global Climate Change, Food Security and the U.S. Food System

Climate change influences on the major pillars of food security. Each of the four elements of food security (availability,access,utilization,andstability) is vulnerable to changes in climate. For example,reductions in production related to regional drought influence food availability at multiple scales. Changes in price influences the ability of certain populations to purchase food (access). Utilization maybe affected when production zones shift, reducing the availability of preferred or culturally appropriate types of food within a region. Stability of the food supply may be highly uncertain given an increased incidence of extreme climatic events and their influence on production patterns

The population structure of Pseudomonas aeruginosa is characterized by genetic isolation of exoU+ and exoS+ lineages

The diversification of microbial populations may be driven by many factors including adaptation to distinct ecological niches and barriers to recombination. We examined the population structure of the bacterial pathogen Pseudomonas aeruginosa by analyzing whole-genome sequences of 739 isolates from diverse sources. We confirmed that the population structure of P. aeruginosa consists of two major groups (referred to as Groups A and B) and at least two minor groups (Groups C1 and C2). Evidence for frequent intra-group but limited inter-group recombination in the core genome was observed, consistent with sexual isolation of the groups. Likewise, accessory genome analysis demonstrated more gene flow within Groups A and B than between these groups, and a few accessory genomic elements were nearly specific to one or the other group. In particular, the exoS gene was highly over-represented in Group A compared to Group B isolates (99.4% vs. 1.1%) and the exoU gene was highly over-represented in Group B compared to Group A isolates (95.2% vs. 1.8%). The exoS and exoU genes encode effector proteins secreted by the P. aeruginosa type III secretion system. Together these results suggest that the major P. aeruginosa groups defined in part by the exoS and exoU genes are divergent from each other, and that these groups are genetically isolated and may be ecologically distinct. Although both groups were globally distributed and caused human infections, certain groups predominated in some clinical contexts

Probing Galaxy Formation with TeV Gamma Ray Absorption

We present here the extragalactic background light (EBL) predicted by semi-analytic models of galaxy formation, and show how measurements of the absorption of gamma rays of $\sim$ TeV energies via pair production on the EBL can probe cosmology and the formation of galaxies. Semi-analytic models permit a physical treatment of the key processes of galaxy formation -- including gravitational collapse and merging of dark matter halos, gas cooling and dissipation, star formation, supernova feedback and metal production -- and have been shown to reproduce key observations at low and high redshift. Using this approach, we investigate the consequences of variations in input assumptions such as the stellar initial mass function and the underlying cosmology. We conclude that observational studies of the absorption of $\sim 10^{-2}-10^{2}$ TeV gamma rays will help to constrain the star formation history of the universe, and the nature and extent of the extinction of starlight due to dust and reradiation of the absorbed energy at infrared wavelengths.Comment: 17 pages, 8 figures, presented at the VERITAS Workshop on TeV Astrophysics of Extragalactic Sources, eds. M. Catanese and T. Weekes, to be published in Astroparticle Physic

CrossCheck:toward passive sensing and detection of mental health changes in people with schizophrenia

Early detection of mental health changes in individuals with serious mental illness is critical for effective intervention. CrossCheck is the first step towards the passive monitoring of mental health indicators in patients with schizophrenia and paves the way towards relapse prediction and early intervention. In this paper, we present initial results from an ongoing randomized control trial, where passive smartphone sensor data is collected from 21 outpatients with schizophrenia recently discharged from hospital over a period ranging from 2-8.5 months. Our results indicate that there are statistically significant associations between automatically tracked behavioral features related to sleep, mobility, conversations, smartphone usage and self-reported indicators of mental health in schizophrenia. Using these features we build inference models capable of accurately predicting aggregated scores of mental health indicators in schizophrenia with a mean error of 7.6% of the score range. Finally, we discuss results on the level of personalization that is needed to account for the known variations within people. We show that by leveraging knowledge from a population with schizophrenia, it is possible to train accurate personalized models that require fewer individual-specific data to quickly adapt to new user

Pan-viral serology implicates enteroviruses in acute flaccid myelitis.

Since 2012, the United States of America has experienced a biennial spike in pediatric acute flaccid myelitis (AFM)1-6. Epidemiologic evidence suggests non-polio enteroviruses (EVs) are a potential etiology, yet EV RNA is rarely detected in cerebrospinal fluid (CSF)2. CSF from children with AFM (n = 42) and other pediatric neurologic disease controls (n = 58) were investigated for intrathecal antiviral antibodies, using a phage display library expressing 481,966 overlapping peptides derived from all known vertebrate and arboviruses (VirScan). Metagenomic next-generation sequencing (mNGS) of AFM CSF RNA (n = 20 cases) was also performed, both unbiased sequencing and with targeted enrichment for EVs. Using VirScan, the viral family significantly enriched by the CSF of AFM cases relative to controls was Picornaviridae, with the most enriched Picornaviridae peptides belonging to the genus Enterovirus (n = 29/42 cases versus 4/58 controls). EV VP1 ELISA confirmed this finding (n = 22/26 cases versus 7/50 controls). mNGS did not detect additional EV RNA. Despite rare detection of EV RNA, pan-viral serology frequently identified high levels of CSF EV-specific antibodies in AFM compared with controls, providing further evidence for a causal role of non-polio EVs in AFM

Galaxy Properties from the Ultra-violet to the Far-Infrared: Lambda-CDM models confront observations

We combine a semi-analytic model of galaxy formation with simple analytic recipes describing the absorption and re-emission of starlight by dust in the interstellar medium of galaxies. We use the resulting models to predict galaxy counts and luminosity functions from the far-ultraviolet to the sub-mm, from redshift five to the present, and compare with an extensive compilation of observations. We find that in order to reproduce the rest-UV and optical luminosity functions at high redshift, we must assume an evolving normalization in the dust-to-metal ratio, implying that galaxies of a given bolometric luminosity (or metal column density) must be less extinguished than their local counterparts. In our best-fit model, we find remarkably good agreement with observations from rest-frame 1500 Angstroms to 250 microns. At longer wavelengths, most dramatically in the sub-mm, our models underpredict the number of bright galaxies by a large factor. The models reproduce the observed total IR luminosity function fairly well. We show the results of varying several ingredients of the models, including various aspects of the dust attenuation recipe, the dust emission templates, and the cosmology. We use our models to predict the integrated Extragalactic Background Light (EBL), and compare with an observationally-motivated EBL model and with other available observational constraints.Comment: 27 pages, 17 figures, 1 table, accepted to MNRAS, this version matches accepted manuscrip

GeV Gamma-Ray Attenuation and the High-Redshift UV Background

We present new calculations of the evolving UV background out to the epoch of cosmological reionization and make predictions for the amount of GeV gamma-ray attenuation by electron-positron pair production. Our results are based on recent semi-analytic models of galaxy formation, which provide predictions of the dust-extinguished UV radiation field due to starlight, and empirical estimates of the contribution due to quasars. We account for the reprocessing of ionizing photons by the intergalactic medium. We test whether our models can reproduce estimates of the ionizing background at high redshift from flux decrement analysis and proximity effect measurements from quasar spectra, and identify a range of models that can satisfy these constraints. Pair-production against soft diffuse photons leads to a spectral cutoff feature for gamma rays observed between 10 and 100 GeV. This cutoff varies with redshift and the assumed star formation and quasar evolution models. We find only negligible amounts of absorption for gamma rays observed below 10 GeV for any emission redshift. With observations of high-redshift sources in sufficient numbers by the Fermi Gamma-ray Space Telescope and new ground-based instruments it should be possible to constrain the extragalactic background light in the UV and optical portion of the spectrum.Comment: 19 pages, 12 figures, Accepted for publication in MNRAS, this version includes minor correction

Association of Accelerometry-Measured Physical Activity and Cardiovascular Events in Mobility-Limited Older Adults: The LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) Study.

BACKGROUND:Data are sparse regarding the value of physical activity (PA) surveillance among older adults-particularly among those with mobility limitations. The objective of this study was to examine longitudinal associations between objectively measured daily PA and the incidence of cardiovascular events among older adults in the LIFE (Lifestyle Interventions and Independence for Elders) study. METHODS AND RESULTS:Cardiovascular events were adjudicated based on medical records review, and cardiovascular risk factors were controlled for in the analysis. Home-based activity data were collected by hip-worn accelerometers at baseline and at 6, 12, and 24 months postrandomization to either a physical activity or health education intervention. LIFE study participants (n=1590; age 78.9±5.2 [SD] years; 67.2% women) at baseline had an 11% lower incidence of experiencing a subsequent cardiovascular event per 500 steps taken per day based on activity data (hazard ratio, 0.89; 95% confidence interval, 0.84-0.96; P=0.001). At baseline, every 30 minutes spent performing activities ≥500 counts per minute (hazard ratio, 0.75; confidence interval, 0.65-0.89 [P=0.001]) were also associated with a lower incidence of cardiovascular events. Throughout follow-up (6, 12, and 24 months), both the number of steps per day (per 500 steps; hazard ratio, 0.90, confidence interval, 0.85-0.96 [P=0.001]) and duration of activity ≥500 counts per minute (per 30 minutes; hazard ratio, 0.76; confidence interval, 0.63-0.90 [P=0.002]) were significantly associated with lower cardiovascular event rates. CONCLUSIONS:Objective measurements of physical activity via accelerometry were associated with cardiovascular events among older adults with limited mobility (summary score >10 on the Short Physical Performance Battery) both using baseline and longitudinal data. CLINICAL TRIAL REGISTRATION:URL: http://www.clinicaltrials.gov. Unique identifier: NCT01072500