5,600 research outputs found

    Mapping the zoonotic niche of Marburg virus disease in Africa.

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    BACKGROUND: Marburg virus disease (MVD) describes a viral haemorrhagic fever responsible for a number of outbreaks across eastern and southern Africa. It is a zoonotic disease, with the Egyptian rousette (Rousettus aegyptiacus) identified as a reservoir host. Infection is suspected to result from contact between this reservoir and human populations, with occasional secondary human-to-human transmission. METHODS: Index cases of previous human outbreaks were identified and reports of infection in animals recorded. These data were modelled within a species distribution modelling framework in order to generate a probabilistic surface of zoonotic transmission potential of MVD across sub-Saharan Africa. RESULTS: Areas suitable for zoonotic transmission of MVD are predicted in 27 countries inhabited by 105 million people. Regions are suggested for exploratory surveys to better characterise the geographical distribution of the disease, as well as for directing efforts to communicate the risk of practices enhancing zoonotic contact. CONCLUSIONS: These maps can inform future contingency and preparedness strategies for MVD control, especially where secondary transmission is a risk. Coupling this risk map with patient travel histories could be used to guide the differential diagnosis of highly transmissible pathogens, enabling more rapid response to outbreaks of haemorrhagic fever

    IMPaCT Back study protocol. Implementation of subgrouping for targeted treatment systems for low back pain patients in primary care: a prospective population-based sequential comparison.

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    BACKGROUND: Prognostic assessment tools to identify subgroups of patients at risk of persistent low back pain who may benefit from targeted treatments have been developed and validated in primary care. The IMPaCT Back study is investigating the effects of introducing and supporting a subgrouping for targeted treatment system in primary care. METHODS/DESIGN: A prospective, population-based, quality improvement study in one Primary Care Trust in England with a before and after design. Phases 1 and 3 collect data on current practice, attitudes and behaviour of health care practitioners, patients' outcomes and health care costs. Phase 2 introduces and supports the subgrouping for targeted treatment system, via a multi-component, quality improvement intervention that includes educational courses and outreach visits led by opinion leaders, audit/feedback, mentoring and organisational support to embed the subgrouping tools within IT and clinical management systems.We aim to recruit 1000 low back pain patients aged 18 years and over consulting 7 GP practices within one Primary Care Trust in England, UK. The study includes GPs in participating practices and physiotherapists in associated services. The primary objective is to determine the effect of the subgrouping for targeted treatment system on back pain related disability and catastrophising at 2 and 6 months, comparing data from phase 1 with phase 3. Key secondary objectives are to determine the impact on: a) GPs' and physiotherapists' attitudes and behaviour regarding low back pain; b) The process of care that patients receive; c) The cost-effectiveness and sustainability of the new clinical system. DISCUSSION: This paper details the rationale, design, methods, planned analysis and operational aspects of the IMPaCT Back study. We aim to determine whether the new subgrouping for targeted treatment system is implemented and sustained in primary care, and evaluate its impact on clinical decision-making, patient outcomes and costs. STUDY REGISTRATION: International Standard Randomised Controlled Trial Number Register ISRCTN55174281.RIGHTS : This article is licensed under the BioMed Central licence at http://www.biomedcentral.com/about/license which is similar to the 'Creative Commons Attribution Licence'. In brief you may : copy, distribute, and display the work; make derivative works; or make commercial use of the work - under the following conditions: the original author must be given credit; for any reuse or distribution, it must be made clear to others what the license terms of this work are

    A human iPSC line capable of differentiating into functional macrophages expressing ZsGreen: a tool for the study and in vivo tracking of therapeutic cells

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    We describe the production of a human induced pluripotent stem cell (iPSC) line, SFCi55-ZsGr, that has been engineered to express the fluorescent reporter gene, ZsGreen, in a constitutive manner. The CAG-driven ZsGreen expression cassette was inserted into the AAVS1 locus and a high level of expression was observed in undifferentiated iPSCs and in cell lineages derived from all three germ layers including haematopoietic cells, hepatocytes and neurons. We demonstrate efficient production of terminally differentiated macrophages from the SFCi55-ZsGreen iPSC line and show that they are indistinguishable from those generated from their parental SFCi55 iPSC line in terms of gene expression, cell surface marker expression and phagocytic activity. The high level of ZsGreen expression had no effect on the ability of macrophages to be activated to an M(LPS + IFNγ), M(IL10) or M(IL4) phenotype nor on their plasticity, assessed by their ability to switch from one phenotype to another. Thus, targeting of the AAVS1 locus in iPSCs allows for the production of fully functional, fluorescently tagged human macrophages that can be used for in vivo tracking in disease models. The strategy also provides a platform for the introduction of factors that are predicted to modulate and/or stabilize macrophage function. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Designer human tissue: coming to a lab near you’

    A comparative framework: how broadly applicable is a 'rigorous' critical junctures framework?

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    The paper tests Hogan and Doyle's (2007, 2008) framework for examining critical junctures. This framework sought to incorporate the concept of ideational change in understanding critical junctures. Until its development, frameworks utilized in identifying critical junctures were subjective, seeking only to identify crisis, and subsequent policy changes, arguing that one invariably led to the other, as both occurred around the same time. Hogan and Doyle (2007, 2008) hypothesized ideational change as an intermediating variable in their framework, determining if, and when, a crisis leads to radical policy change. Here we test this framework on cases similar to, but different from, those employed in developing the exemplar. This will enable us determine whether the framework's relegation of ideational change to a condition of crisis holds, or, if ideational change has more importance than is ascribed to it by this framework. This will also enable us determined if the framework itself is robust, and fit for the purposes it was designed to perform — identifying the nature of policy change

    Modelling adult Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus survival at different temperatures in laboratory and field settings.

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    BACKGROUND: The survival of adult female Aedes mosquitoes is a critical component of their ability to transmit pathogens such as dengue viruses. One of the principal determinants of Aedes survival is temperature, which has been associated with seasonal changes in Aedes populations and limits their geographical distribution. The effects of temperature and other sources of mortality have been studied in the field, often via mark-release-recapture experiments, and under controlled conditions in the laboratory. Survival results differ and reconciling predictions between the two settings has been hindered by variable measurements from different experimental protocols, lack of precision in measuring survival of free-ranging mosquitoes, and uncertainty about the role of age-dependent mortality in the field. METHODS: Here we apply generalised additive models to data from 351 published adult Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus survival experiments in the laboratory to create survival models for each species across their range of viable temperatures. These models are then adjusted to estimate survival at different temperatures in the field using data from 59 Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus field survivorship experiments. The uncertainty at each stage of the modelling process is propagated through to provide confidence intervals around our predictions. RESULTS: Our results indicate that adult Ae. albopictus has higher survival than Ae. aegypti in the laboratory and field, however, Ae. aegypti can tolerate a wider range of temperatures. A full breakdown of survival by age and temperature is given for both species. The differences between laboratory and field models also give insight into the relative contributions to mortality from temperature, other environmental factors, and senescence and over what ranges these factors can be important. CONCLUSIONS: Our results support the importance of producing site-specific mosquito survival estimates. By including fluctuating temperature regimes, our models provide insight into seasonal patterns of Ae. aegypti and Ae. albopictus population dynamics that may be relevant to seasonal changes in dengue virus transmission. Our models can be integrated with Aedes and dengue modelling efforts to guide and evaluate vector control, better map the distribution of disease and produce early warning systems for dengue epidemics

    Population density, water supply, and the risk of dengue fever in Vietnam: cohort study and spatial analysis.

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    BACKGROUND: Aedes aegypti, the major vector of dengue viruses, often breeds in water storage containers used by households without tap water supply, and occurs in high numbers even in dense urban areas. We analysed the interaction between human population density and lack of tap water as a cause of dengue fever outbreaks with the aim of identifying geographic areas at highest risk. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We conducted an individual-level cohort study in a population of 75,000 geo-referenced households in Vietnam over the course of two epidemics, on the basis of dengue hospital admissions (n = 3,013). We applied space-time scan statistics and mathematical models to confirm the findings. We identified a surprisingly narrow range of critical human population densities between around 3,000 to 7,000 people/km² prone to dengue outbreaks. In the study area, this population density was typical of villages and some peri-urban areas. Scan statistics showed that areas with a high population density or adequate water supply did not experience severe outbreaks. The risk of dengue was higher in rural than in urban areas, largely explained by lack of piped water supply, and in human population densities more often falling within the critical range. Mathematical modeling suggests that simple assumptions regarding area-level vector/host ratios may explain the occurrence of outbreaks. CONCLUSIONS: Rural areas may contribute at least as much to the dissemination of dengue fever as cities. Improving water supply and vector control in areas with a human population density critical for dengue transmission could increase the efficiency of control efforts. Please see later in the article for the Editors' Summary

    Global temperature constraints on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission.

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    BACKGROUND: Dengue is a disease that has undergone significant expansion over the past hundred years. Understanding what factors limit the distribution of transmission can be used to predict current and future limits to further dengue expansion. While not the only factor, temperature plays an important role in defining these limits. Previous attempts to analyse the effect of temperature on the geographic distribution of dengue have not considered its dynamic intra-annual and diurnal change and its cumulative effects on mosquito and virus populations. METHODS: Here we expand an existing modelling framework with new temperature-based relationships to model an index proportional to the basic reproductive number of the dengue virus. This model framework is combined with high spatial and temporal resolution global temperature data to model the effects of temperature on Aedes aegypti and Ae. albopictus persistence and competence for dengue virus transmission. RESULTS: Our model predicted areas where temperature is not expected to permit transmission and/or Aedes persistence throughout the year. By reanalysing existing experimental data our analysis indicates that Ae. albopictus, often considered a minor vector of dengue, has comparable rates of virus dissemination to its primary vector, Ae. aegypti, and when the longer lifespan of Ae. albopictus is considered its competence for dengue virus transmission far exceeds that of Ae. aegypti. CONCLUSIONS: These results can be used to analyse the effects of temperature and other contributing factors on the expansion of dengue or its Aedes vectors. Our finding that Ae. albopictus has a greater capacity for dengue transmission than Ae. aegypti is contrary to current explanations for the comparative rarity of dengue transmission in established Ae. albopictus populations. This suggests that the limited capacity of Ae. albopictus to transmit DENV is more dependent on its ecology than vector competence. The recommendations, which we explicitly outlined here, point to clear targets for entomological investigation
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