The efficient global primitive equation climate model SPEEDO V2.0

The efficient primitive-equation coupled atmosphere-ocean model SPEEDO V2.0 is presented. The model includes an interactive sea-ice and land component. SPEEDO is a global earth system model of intermediate complexity. It has a horizontal resolution of T30 (triangular truncation at wave number 30) and 8 vertical layers in the atmosphere, and a horizontal resolution of 2 degrees and 20 levels in the ocean. The parameterisations in SPEEDO are developed in such a way that it is a fast model suitable for large ensembles or long runs (of O(104) years) on a typical current workstation. The model has no flux correction. We compare the mean state and inter-annual variability of the model with observational fields of the atmosphere and ocean. In particular the atmospheric circulation, the midlatitude patterns of variability and teleconnections from the tropics are well simulated. To show the capabilities of the model, we performed a long control run and an ensemble experiment with enhanced greenhouse gases. The long control run shows that the model is stable. CO2 doubling and future climate change scenario experiments show a climate sensitivity of 1.84KW-1m2, which is within the range of state-of-the-art climate models. The spatial response patterns are comparable to state-of-the-art, higher resolution models. However, for very high greenhouse gas concentrations the parameterisations are not valid. We conclude that the model is suitable for past, current and future climate simulations and for exploring wide parameter ranges and mechanisms of variability. However, as with any model, users should be careful when using the model beyond the range of physical realism of the parameterisations and model setup

Darkling beetles (Alphitobius diaperinus) and their larvae as potential vectors for the transfer of Campylobacter jejuni and Salmonella enterica serovar paratyphi B variant Java between successive broiler flocks

Broiler flocks often become infected with Campylobacter and Salmonella, and the exact contamination routes are still not fully understood. Insects like darkling beetles and their larvae may play a role in transfer of the pathogens between consecutive cycles. In this study, several groups of beetles and their larvae were artificially contaminated with a mixture of Salmonella enterica serovar Paratyphi B Variant Java and three C. jejuni strains and kept for different time intervals before they were fed to individually housed chicks. Most inoculated insects were positive for Salmonella and Campylobacter just before they were fed to the chicks. However, Campylobacter could not be isolated from insects that were kept for 1 week before they were used to mimic an empty week between rearing cycles. All broilers fed insects that were inoculated with pathogens on the day of feeding showed colonization with Campylobacter and Salmonella at levels of 50 to 100%. Transfer of both pathogens by groups of insects that were kept for 1 week before feeding to the chicks was also observed, but at lower levels. Naturally contaminated insects that were collected at a commercial broiler farm colonized broilers at low levels as well. In conclusion, the fact that Salmonella and Campylobacter can be transmitted via beetles and their larvae to flocks in successive rearing cycles indicates that there should be intensive control programs for exclusion of these insects from broiler houses

Robust assessment of future changes in extreme precipitation over the Rhine basin using a GCM

Estimates of future changes in extremes of multiday precipitation sums are critical for estimates of future discharge extremes of large river basins. Here we use a large ensemble of global climate model SRES A1b scenario simulations to estimate changes in extremes of 1–20 day precipitation sums over the Rhine basin, projected for the period 2071–2100 with reference to 1961–1990. We find that in winter, an increase of order 10%, for the 99th percentile precipitation sum, is approximately fixed across the selected range of multiday sums, whereas in summer, the changes become increasingly negative as the summation time lengthens. Explanations for these results are presented that have implications for simple scaling methods for creating time series of a future climate. We show that the dependence of quantile changes on summation time is sensitive to the ensemble size and indicate that currently available discharge estimates from previous studies are based on insufficiently long time series

Reproductive management in pigs: emphasis on the different roles of the boar and on optimal insemination management

Boars have different roles in the reproductive management in pigs. Boar contact can stimulate follicle development and thereby induce oestrus, both in gilts and sows. Boar contact during oestrus is essential for good oestrus expression, which is essential for the correct timing of insemination and the proper use of boar contact during insemination can stimulate sperm transport and thereby fertilisation. Stimulation by boars clearly has an olfactory component (the boar smell), but can also have an auditory, visual and evn tactile component. The background of the different roles and some of these different components of the boar are discussed. To enable a good farrowing rate and litter size, sows should be inseminated between 0 and 24h before ovulation. However, it is not possible to accurately predict the time of ovulation in sows. Although ovulation takes place at a relatively fixed 60-75% of the duration of oestrus, the duration of oestrus varies considerably between sows and between farms, resulting in a variable ovulation time from onset of oestrus. Therefore, most farmers inseminate their sows every day of oestrus to ensure insemination within the optimal period. Since post-ovulation inseminations should be avoided, it is adviced to only inseminate sows while they still show an optimal standing respons

Climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean: a study including the effects of ocean dynamics and gravity changes induced by ice melt

Here we present a set of regional climate scenarios of sea level rise for the northeast Atlantic Ocean. In this study, the latest observations and results obtained with state-of-the-art climate models are combined. In addition, regional effects due to ocean dynamics and changes in the Earth’s gravity field induced by melting of land-based ice masses have been taken into account. The climate scenarios are constructed for the target years 2050 and 2100, for both a moderate and a large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature (2 °C and 4 °C in 2100 respectively). The climate scenarios contain contributions from changes in ocean density (global thermal expansion and local steric changes related to changing ocean dynamics) and changes in ocean mass (melting of mountain glaciers and ice caps, changes in the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets, and (minor) terrestrial water-storage contributions). All major components depend on the global temperature rise achieved in the target periods considered. The resulting set of climate scenarios represents our best estimate of twenty-first century sea level rise in the northeast Atlantic Ocean, given the current understanding of the various contributions. For 2100, they yield a local rise of 30 to 55 cm and 40 to 80 cm for the moderate and large rise in global mean atmospheric temperature, respectively. <br/

Vanadium oxide monolayer catalysts. 3. A Raman spectroscopic and temperature-programmed reduction study of monolayer and crystal-type vanadia on various supports

Vanadium(V) oxide supported on 7-A1203, GO2, Cr2O3, Si02, Ti02, and Zr02 was studied by X-ray fluorescence, by X-ray diffraction, and especially by the combination of Raman spectroscopy and temperature-programmed reduction (TPR) for qualitative and quantitative structural analysis, respectively. Catalysts were prepared via ion-exchange and wet-impregnation methods. The V contents ranged from - 1 to 40 wt % V. At low surface concentrations only surface vanadate phases of two-dimensional character are observed for all carriers. According to Raman and TPR data the structure of these surface vanadate species is independent of the preparation technique. At medium and high surface concentrations, the webimpregnated samples already contain crystalline V20b At equal surface concentrations the ion-exchanged catalysts contain no V205 crystallites. An exception is Si02 on which also crystalline V206 is formed in both preparation techniques. Monolayer stability toward thermal treatment decreases in the order AZO&gt;3 Ti02&gt; Ce02,w hereas on heating ion-exchanged V/Si02 the crystalline V206 spreads out over the silica surface. The reducibilities of the ion-exchanged catalyats, as measured by TPR, can be used as a measure for the contact interaction between vanadia and the carrier oxides. At temperatures of 500-800 K, this interaction ranges from strong with titania to weak with silica as a carrier

Exploring high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands

This international scientific assessment has been carried out at the request of the Dutch Delta Committee. The "Deltacommissie" requested that the assessment explore the high-end climate change scenarios for flood protection of the Netherlands. It is a state-of–the art scientific assessment of the upper bound values and longer term projections (for sea level rise up to 2200) of climate induced sea level rise, changing storm surge conditions and peak discharge of river Rhine. It comprises a review of recent studies, model projections and expert opinions of more than 20 leading climate scientists from different countries around the North Sea, Australia and the US

Decadal upper ocean temperature variability in the tropical subtropical Pacific

Decadal variability in upper ocean temperature in the Pacific is studied by using observations and results from model experiments. Especially propagation of upper ocean thermal anomalies from the midlatitudes to the tropics is studied as a possible source for decadal equatorial thermocline variability. In the observations, propagation along the subtropical gyre of the North Pacific is clear. However, no propagation into the equatorial region is found. Model experiments with an ocean model forced with observed monthly wind and wind stress anomalies are performed to study the apparent propagation. Distinct propagation of thermal anomalies in the subtropics is found in the model, although the amplitude of the anomalies is small. The anomalies clearly propagate into the tropics, but they do not reach the equatorial region. The small response at the equator to extratropical variability consists of a change in the mean depth of the thermocline. It appears that most variability in the subtropics and tropics is generated by local wind stress anomalies. The results are discussed by using results from a linear shallow water model in which similar features are foun

High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP v1.0) for CMIP6

Robust projections and predictions of climate variability and change, particularly at regional scales, rely on the driving processes being represented with fidelity in model simulations. The role of enhanced horizontal resolution in improved process representation in all components of the climate system is of growing interest, particularly as some recent simulations suggest the possibility for significant changes in both large-scale aspects of circulation, as well as improvements in small-scale processes and extremes. However, such high resolution global simulations at climate time scales, with resolutions of at least 50 km in the atmosphere and 0.25° in the ocean, have been performed at relatively few research centers and generally without overall coordination, primarily due to their computational cost. Assessing the robustness of the response of simulated climate to model resolution requires a large multi-model ensemble using a coordinated set of experiments. The Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 6 (CMIP6) is the ideal framework within which to conduct such a study, due to the strong link to models being developed for the CMIP DECK experiments and other MIPs. Increases in High Performance Computing (HPC) resources, as well as the revised experimental design for CMIP6, now enables a detailed investigation of the impact of increased resolution up to synoptic weather scales on the simulated mean climate and its variability. The High Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) presented in this paper applies, for the first time, a multi-model approach to the systematic investigation of the impact of horizontal resolution. A coordinated set of experiments has been designed to assess both a standard and an enhanced horizontal resolution simulation in the atmosphere and ocean. The set of HighResMIP experiments is divided into three tiers consisting of atmosphere-only and coupled runs and spanning the period 1950-2050, with the possibility to extend to 2100, together with some additional targeted experiments. This paper describes the experimental set-up of HighResMIP, the analysis plan, the connection with the other CMIP6 endorsed MIPs, as well as the DECK and CMIP6 historical simulation. HighResMIP thereby focuses on one of the CMIP6 broad questions: “what are the origins and consequences of systematic model biases?”, but we also discuss how it addresses the World Climate Research Program (WCRP) grand challenges

Tales of future weather

Society is vulnerable to extreme weather events and, by extension, to human impacts on future events. As climate changes weather patterns will change. The search is on for more effective methodologies to aid decision-makers both in mitigation to avoid climate change and in adaptation to changes. The traditional approach uses ensembles of climate model simulations, statistical bias correction, downscaling to the spatial and temporal scales relevant to decision-makers, and then translation into quantities of interest. The veracity of this approach cannot be tested, and it faces in-principle challenges. Alternatively, numerical weather prediction models in a hypothetical climate setting can provide tailored narratives for high-resolution simulations of high-impact weather in a future climate. This 'tales of future weather' approach will aid in the interpretation of lower-resolution simulations. Arguably, it potentially provides complementary, more realistic and more physically consistent pictures of what future weather might look like