Climate change effects on human health: projections of temperature-related mortality for the UK during the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s

Background The most direct way in which climate change is expected to affect public health relates to changes in mortality rates associated with exposure to ambient temperature. Many countries worldwide experience annual heat-related and cold-related deaths associated with current weather patterns. Future changes in climate may alter such risks. Estimates of the likely future health impacts of such changes are needed to inform public health policy on climate change in the UK and elsewhere. Methods Time-series regression analysis was used to characterise current temperature-mortality relationships by region and age group. These were then applied to the local climate and population projections to estimate temperature-related deaths for the UK by the 2020s, 2050s and 2080s. Greater variability in future temperatures as well as changes in mean levels was modelled. Results A significantly raised risk of heat-related and cold-related mortality was observed in all regions. The elderly were most at risk. In the absence of any adaptation of the population, heat-related deaths would be expected to rise by around 257% by the 2050s from a current annual baseline of around 2000 deaths, and cold-related mortality would decline by 2% from a baseline of around 41 000 deaths. The cold burden remained higher than the heat burden in all periods. The increased number of future temperature-related deaths was partly driven by projected population growth and ageing. Conclusions Health protection from hot weather will become increasingly necessary, and measures to reduce cold impacts will also remain important in the UK. The demographic changes expected this century mean that the health protection of the elderly will be vital

Angular momentum effects in weak gravitational fields

It is shown that, contrary to what is normally expected, it is possible to have angular momentum effects on the geometry of space time at the laboratory scale, much bigger than the purely Newtonian effects. This is due to the fact that the ratio between the angular momentum of a body and its mass, expressed as a length, is easily greater than the mass itself, again expressed as a length.Comment: LATEX, 8 page

Rotation of electromagnetic fields and the nature of optical angular momentum

The association of spin and orbital angular momenta of light with its polarization and helical phase fronts is now well established. The problems in linking this with electromagnetic theory, as expressed in Maxwell's equations, are rather less well known. We present a simple analysis of the problems involved in defining spin and orbital angular momenta for electromagnetic fields and discuss some of the remaining challenges. Crucial to our investigation is the duplex symmetry between the electric and magnetic fields

Forces between electric charges in motion: Rutherford scattering, circular Keplerian orbits, action-at-a-distance and Newton's third law in relativistic classical electrodynamics

Standard formulae of classical electromagnetism for the forces between electric charges in motion derived from retarded potentials are compared with those obtained from a recently developed relativistic classical electrodynamic theory with an instantaneous inter-charge force. Problems discussed include small angle Rutherford scattering, Jackson's recent `torque paradox' and circular Keplerian orbits. Results consistent with special relativity are obtained only with an instantaneous interaction. The impossiblity of stable circular motion with retarded fields in either classical electromagnetism or Newtonian gravitation is demonstrated.Comment: 26 pages, 5 figures. QED and special relativity forbid retarded electromagnetic forces. See also physics/0501130. V2 has typos corrected, minor text modifications and updated references. V3 has further typos removed and added text and reference

Urban Heat Islands and their Associated Impacts on Health

Towns and cities generally exhibit higher temperatures than rural areas for a number of reasons, including the effect that urban materials have on the natural balance of incoming and outgoing energy at the surface level, the shape and geometry of buildings, and the impact of anthropogenic heating. This localized heating means that towns and cities are often described as urban heat islands (UHIs). Urbanized areas modify local temperatures, but also other meteorological variables such as wind speed and direction and rainfall patterns. The magnitude of the UHI for a given town or city tends to scale with the size of population, although smaller towns of just thousands of inhabitants can have an appreciable UHI effect. The UHI “intensity” (the difference in temperature between a city center and a rural reference point outside the city) is on the order of a few degrees Celsius on average, but can peak at as much as 10°C in larger cities, given the right conditions. UHIs tend to be enhanced during heatwaves, when there is lots of sunshine and a lack of wind to provide ventilation and disperse the warm air. The UHI is most pronounced at night, when rural areas tend to be cooler than cities and urban materials radiate the energy they have stored during the day into the local atmosphere. As well as affecting local weather patterns and interacting with local air pollution, the UHI can directly affect health through heat exposure, which can exacerbate minor illnesses, affect occupational performance, or increase the risk of hospitalization and even death. Urban populations can face serious risks to health during heatwaves whereby the heat associated with the UHI contributes additional warming. Heat-related health risks are likely to increase in future against a background of climate change and increasing urbanization throughout much of the world. However, there are ways to reduce urban temperatures and avoid some of the health impacts of the UHI through behavioral changes, modification of buildings, or by urban scale interventions. It is important to understand the physical properties of the UHI and its impact on health to evaluate the potential for interventions to reduce heat-related impacts

Potential health impacts from sulphur dioxide and sulphate exposure in the UK resulting from an Icelandic effusive volcanic eruption

Ash, gases and particles emitted from volcanic eruptions cause disruption to air transport, but also have negative impacts on respiratory and cardiovascular health. Exposure to sulphur dioxide (SO2) and sulphate (SO4) aerosols increases the risk of mortality, and respiratory and cardiovascular hospital admissions. Ash and gases can be transported over large distances and are a potential public health risk. In 2014–15, the Bárðarbunga fissure eruption at Holuhraun, Iceland was associated with high emissions of SO2 and SO4, detected at UK monitoring stations. We estimated the potential impacts on the UK population from SO2 and SO4 associated with a hypothetical large fissure eruption in Iceland for mortality and emergency hospital admissions. To simulate the effects of different weather conditions, we used an ensemble of 80 runs from an atmospheric dispersion model to simulate SO2 and SO4 concentrations on a background of varying meteorology. We weighted the simulated exposure data by population, and quantified the potential health impacts that may result in the UK over a 6-week period following the start of an eruption. We found in the majority of cases, the expected number of deaths resulting from SO2 over a 6-week period total fewer than ~100 for each model run, and for SO4, in the majority of cases, the number totals fewer than ~200. However, the 6-week simulated period with the highest SO2 was associated with 313 deaths, and the period with the highest SO4 was associated with 826 deaths. The single 6-week period relating to the highest combined SO2 and SO4 was associated with 925 deaths. Over a 5-month extended exposure period, upper estimates are for 3350 deaths, 4030 emergency cardiovascular and 6493 emergency respiratory hospitalizations. These figures represent a worst-case scenario and can inform health protection planning for effusive volcanic eruptions which may affect the UK in the future

Mach's principle: Exact frame-dragging via gravitomagnetism in perturbed Friedmann-Robertson-Walker universes with K=(±1,0)K = (\pm 1, 0)

We show that the dragging of the axis directions of local inertial frames by a weighted average of the energy currents in the universe is exact for all linear perturbations of any Friedmann-Robertson-Walker (FRW) universe with K = (+1, -1, 0) and of Einstein's static closed universe. This includes FRW universes which are arbitrarily close to the Milne Universe, which is empty, and to the de Sitter universe. Hence the postulate formulated by E. Mach about the physical cause for the time-evolution of the axis directions of inertial frames is shown to hold in cosmological General Relativity for linear perturbations. The time-evolution of axis directions of local inertial frames (relative to given local fiducial axes) is given experimentally by the precession angular velocity of gyroscopes, which in turn is given by the operational definition of the gravitomagnetic field. The gravitomagnetic field is caused by cosmological energy currents via the momentum constraint. This equation for cosmological gravitomagnetism is analogous to Ampere's law, but it holds also for time-dependent situtations. In the solution for an open universe the 1/r^2-force of Ampere is replaced by a Yukawa force which is of identical form for FRW backgrounds with $K = (-1, 0).$ The scale of the exponential cutoff is the H-dot radius, where H is the Hubble rate, and dot is the derivative with respect to cosmic time. Analogous results hold for energy currents in a closed FRW universe, K = +1, and in Einstein's closed static universe.Comment: 23 pages, no figures. Final published version. Additional material in Secs. I.A, I.J, III, V.H. Additional reference

Beyond climate change and health: Integrating broader environmental change and natural environments for public health protection and promotion in the UK

This is the final version of the article. Available from MDPI via the DOI in this record.Increasingly, the potential short and long-term impacts of climate change on human health and wellbeing are being demonstrated. However, other environmental change factors, particularly relating to the natural environment, need to be taken into account to understand the totality of these interactions and impacts. This paper provides an overview of ongoing research in the Health Protection Research Unit (HPRU) on Environmental Change and Health, particularly around the positive and negative effects of the natural environment on human health and well-being and primarily within a UK context. In addition to exploring the potential increasing risks to human health from water-borne and vector-borne diseases and from exposure to aeroallergens such as pollen, this paper also demonstrates the potential opportunities and co-benefits to human physical and mental health from interacting with the natural environment. The involvement of a Health and Environment Public Engagement (HEPE) group as a public forum of "critical friends" has proven useful for prioritising and exploring some of this research; such public involvement is essential to minimise public health risks and maximise the benefits which are identified from this research into environmental change and human health. Research gaps are identified and recommendations made for future research into the risks, benefits and potential opportunities of climate and other environmental change on human and planetary health.The research was funded in part by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Environmental Change and Health at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine in partnership with Public Health England (PHE), and in collaboration with the University of Exeter, University College London, and the Met Office (HPRU-2012-10016); the UK Medical Research Council (MRC) and UK Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) for the MEDMI Project (MR/K019341/1, https: //www.data-mashup.org.uk); the Economic and Social Research Council (ESRC) Project (ES/P011489/1); and the NIHR Knowledge Mobilisation Research Fellowship for Maguire

The winter urban heat island: Impacts on cold-related mortality in a highly urbanized European region for present and future climate.

Exposure to heat has a range of potential negative impacts on human health; hot weather may exacerbate cardiovascular and respiratory illness or lead to heat stroke and death. Urban populations are at increased risk due to the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect (higher urban temperatures compared with rural ones). This has led to extensive investigation of the summertime UHI and its effects, whereas far less research focuses on the wintertime UHI. Exposure to low temperature also leads to a range of illnesses, and in fact, in the UK, annual cold-related mortality outweighs heat-related mortality. It is not clearly understood to what extent the wintertime UHI may protect against cold related mortality. In this study we quantify the UHI intensity in wintertime for a heavily urbanized UK region (West Midlands, including Birmingham) using a regional weather model, and for the first time, use a health impact assessment (HIA) to estimate the associated impact on cold-related mortality. We show that the population-weighted mean winter UHI intensity was +2.3 °C in Birmingham city center, and comparable with that of summer. Our results suggest a potential protective effect of the wintertime UHI, equivalent to 266 cold-related deaths avoided (~15% of total cold-related mortality over ~11 weeks). When including the impacts of climate change, our results suggest that the number of heat-related deaths associated with the summer UHI will increase from 96 (in 2006) to 221 in the 2080s, based on the RCP8.5 emissions pathway. The protective effect of the wintertime UHI is projected to increase only slightly from 266 cold-related deaths avoided in 2009 to 280 avoided in the 2080s. The different effects of the UHI in winter and summer should be considered when assessing interventions in the built environment for reducing summer urban heat, and our results suggest that the future burden of temperature-related mortality associated with the UHI is likely to increase in summer relative to winter