Using Abstraction in Modular Verification of Synchronous Adaptive Systems

Self-adaptive embedded systems autonomously adapt to changing environment conditions to improve their functionality and to increase their dependability by downgrading functionality in case of fail- ures. However, adaptation behaviour of embedded systems significantly complicates system design and poses new challenges for guaranteeing system correctness, in particular vital in the automotive domain. Formal verification as applied in safety-critical applications must therefore be able to address not only temporal and functional properties, but also dynamic adaptation according to external and internal stimuli. In this paper, we introduce a formal semantic-based framework to model, specify and verify the functional and the adaptation behaviour of syn- chronous adaptive systems. The modelling separates functional and adap- tive behaviour to reduce the design complexity and to enable modular reasoning about both aspects independently as well as in combination. By an example, we show how to use this framework in order to verify properties of synchronous adaptive systems. Modular reasoning in com- bination with abstraction mechanisms makes automatic model checking efficiently applicable

Clouds in the atmospheres of extrasolar planets. II. Thermal emission spectra of Earth-like planets influenced by low and high-level clouds

We study the impact of multi-layered clouds (low-level water and high-level ice clouds) on the thermal emission spectra of Earth-like planets orbiting different types of stars. Clouds have an important influence on such planetary emission spectra due to their wavelength dependent absorption and scattering properties. We also investigate the influence of clouds on the ability to derive information about planetary surface temperatures from low-resolution spectra.Comment: accepted for publication in A&

Clouds in the atmospheres of extrasolar planets. I. Climatic effects of multi-layered clouds for Earth-like planets and implications for habitable zones

The effects of multi-layered clouds in the atmospheres of Earth-like planets orbiting different types of stars are studied. The radiative effects of cloud particles are directly correlated with their wavelength-dependent optical properties. Therefore the incident stellar spectra may play an important role for the climatic effect of clouds. We discuss the influence of clouds with mean properties measured in the Earth's atmosphere on the surface temperatures and Bond albedos of Earth-like planets orbiting different types of main sequence dwarf stars.Comment: accepted for publication in A&

Evaluating the structure and magnitude of the ash plume during the initial phase of the 2010 Eyjafjallajökull eruption using lidar observations and NAME simulations

The Eyjafjallajökull volcano in Iceland erupted explosively on 14 April 2010, emitting a plume of ash into the atmosphere. The ash was transported from Iceland toward Europe where mostly cloud-free skies allowed ground-based lidars at Chilbolton in England and Leipzig in Germany to estimate the mass concentration in the ash cloud as it passed overhead. The UK Met Office's Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modeling Environment (NAME) has been used to simulate the evolution of the ash cloud from the Eyjafjallajökull volcano during the initial phase of the ash emissions, 14–16 April 2010. NAME captures the timing and sloped structure of the ash layer observed over Leipzig, close to the central axis of the ash cloud. Relatively small errors in the ash cloud position, probably caused by the cumulative effect of errors in the driving meteorology en route, result in a timing error at distances far from the central axis of the ash cloud. Taking the timing error into account, NAME is able to capture the sloped ash layer over the UK. Comparison of the lidar observations and NAME simulations has allowed an estimation of the plume height time series to be made. It is necessary to include in the model input the large variations in plume height in order to accurately predict the ash cloud structure at long range. Quantitative comparison with the mass concentrations at Leipzig and Chilbolton suggest that around 3% of the total emitted mass is transported as far as these sites by small (<100 μm diameter) ash particles

The impact of ice crystal shapes, size distributions and spatial structures of cirrus clouds on solar radiative fluxes

The solar radiative properties of cirrus clouds depend on ice particle shape, size, and orientation, as well as on the spatial cloud structure. Radiation schemes in atmospheric circulation models rely on estimates of cloud optical thickness only. In the present work, a Monte Carlo radiative transfer code is applied to various cirrus cloud scenarios to obtain the radiative response of uncertainties in the above-mentioned microphysical and spatial cloud properties (except orientation). First, plane-parallel homogeneous (0D) clouds with different crystal shapes (hexagonal columns, irregular polycrystals) and 114 different size distributions have been considered. The resulting variabilities in the solar radiative fluxes are in the order of a few percent for the reflected and about 1% for the diffusely transmitted fluxes. Largest variabilities in the order of 10% to 30% are found for the solar broadband absorptance. However, these variabilities are smaller than the flux differences caused by the choice of ice particle geometries. The influence of cloud inhomogeneities on the radiative fluxes has been examined with the help of time series of Raman lidar extinction coefficient profiles as input for the radiative transfer calculations. Significant differences between results for inhomogeneous and plane-parallel clouds were found. These differences are in the same order of magnitude as those arising from using extremely different crystal shapes for the radiative transfer calculations. From this sensitivity study, the ranking of cirrus cloud properties according to their importance in solar broadband radiative transfer is optical thickness, ice crystal shape, ice particle size, and spatial structure

Mitigating Cyber Warfare through Deterrence and Diplomacy

Nation states are increasingly bolstering their defensive and offensive cyber capabilities to launch and deter politically motivated cyber attacks. This does not only affect political processes, institutions, and election outcomes, but also a state’s critical infrastructure, economy, and society. Recent escalations and cyber attacks on power grids, parliaments, electoral campaigns, and financial institutions have made governments more aware of the double-edged sword presented by emerging cyber capabilities wielded by nation states. A new layer has been added to conflict prevention between states, i.e. international diplomacy, confidence-building measures and deterrence in cyber space. In this paper, we argue that stand-alone deterrence and stand-alone appeasement cannot solve the arising cross-national cyber conflict and prevent a cyber arms race. Only a concerted effort to combine diplomatic and deterring strategies can lead to an acceptable status quo in international cyber relations