Equitability revisited: why the “equitable threat score” is not equitable

In the forecasting of binary events, verification measures that are “equitable” were defined by Gandin and Murphy to satisfy two requirements: 1) they award all random forecasting systems, including those that always issue the same forecast, the same expected score (typically zero), and 2) they are expressible as the linear weighted sum of the elements of the contingency table, where the weights are independent of the entries in the table, apart from the base rate. The authors demonstrate that the widely used “equitable threat score” (ETS), as well as numerous others, satisfies neither of these requirements and only satisfies the first requirement in the limit of an infinite sample size. Such measures are referred to as “asymptotically equitable.” In the case of ETS, the expected score of a random forecasting system is always positive and only falls below 0.01 when the number of samples is greater than around 30. Two other asymptotically equitable measures are the odds ratio skill score and the symmetric extreme dependency score, which are more strongly inequitable than ETS, particularly for rare events; for example, when the base rate is 2% and the sample size is 1000, random but unbiased forecasting systems yield an expected score of around −0.5, reducing in magnitude to −0.01 or smaller only for sample sizes exceeding 25 000. This presents a problem since these nonlinear measures have other desirable properties, in particular being reliable indicators of skill for rare events (provided that the sample size is large enough). A potential way to reconcile these properties with equitability is to recognize that Gandin and Murphy’s two requirements are independent, and the second can be safely discarded without losing the key advantages of equitability that are embodied in the first. This enables inequitable and asymptotically equitable measures to be scaled to make them equitable, while retaining their nonlinearity and other properties such as being reliable indicators of skill for rare events. It also opens up the possibility of designing new equitable verification measures

Quantification of lignin oxidation products as vegetation biomarkers in speleothems and cave drip water

Here we present a sensitive method to analyze lignin oxidation products (LOPs) in speleothems and cave drip water to provide a new tool for paleo-vegetation reconstruction. Speleothems are valuable climate archives. However, compared to other terrestrial climate archives, such as lake sediments, speleothems contain very little organic matter. Therefore, very few studies on organic biomarkers in speleothems are available. Our new sensitive method allows us to use LOPs as vegetation biomarkers in speleothems.Our method consists of acid digestion of the speleothem sample followed by solid-phase extraction (SPE) of the organic matter. The extracted polymeric lignin is degraded in a microwave-assisted alkaline CuO oxidation step to yield monomeric LOPs. The LOPs are extracted via SPE and finally analyzed via ultrahigh-performance liquid chromatography (UHPLC) coupled to electrospray ionization (ESI) and high-resolution Orbitrap mass spectrometry (HRMS). The method was applied to stalagmite samples with a sample size of 3–5&thinsp;g and cave drip water samples with a sample size of 100–200&thinsp;mL from the Herbstlabyrinth-Advent Cave in Germany. In addition, fresh plant samples, soil water, and powdered lignin samples were analyzed for comparison. The concentration of the sum of eight LOPs (Σ8) was in the range of 20–84&thinsp;ng g−1 for the stalagmite samples and 230–440&thinsp;ng L−1 for the cave drip water samples. The limits of quantification for the individual LOPs ranged from 0.3–8.2&thinsp;ng per sample or 1.5–41.0&thinsp;ng mL−1 of the final sample solution.Our method represents a new and powerful analytical tool for paleo-vegetation studies and has great potential to identify the pathways of lignin incorporation into speleothems.</p

Weiterentwicklung und Charakterisierung der halo-FAPA als Anregungs- und Ionisationsquelle für die Emissions- bzw. Massenspektrometrie

The halo-FAPA (halo-shaped flowing atmospheric pressure afterglow) ionization and excitation source is based on a direct current, low power glow discharge at ambient conditions (120 V – 250 V, 2 mA – 80 mA). Helium (10 mL min-1 – 1000 mL min-1) flows through two concentrically aligned, stainless steel, capillary electrodes (i. d. 2.4 mm and 1.0 mm, respectively), extending the plasma beyond the discharge zone (afterglow). Sampling into the outer or inner channel facilitates ionization via electron transfer or proton transfer reactions, respectively. A sample introduced into the outer channel interacts with species generated immediately by the discharge (e. g., e-, He+, He*). Sampling into the inner channel, however, results in sample interaction with reaction products of the aforementioned species with atmospheric components such as water cluster ions (H(H2O)n+). The latter facilitate soft ionization of polar and medium polar molecules via proton transfer reactions. Halo-FAPA afterglow sampling has proven to be very powerful in molecular ion mass spectrometry. The halo-FAPA source is simple, inexpensive, and has low sample uptake. Samples may be introduced via the ADI-MS principle or in continuous flow. The halo-FAPA construction has been revised, improving or eliminating deficiencies in aerosol transfer, risk of contamination, and heat resistance. This way, discharge dimensions may also be varied. This revised halo-FAPA implementation has been characterized regarding its electric properties. Also, several heavy-duty components underwent microscopic examination. An experimental setup allowing immediate switching of mercury vapor uptake has been developed. Using the mercury atomic emission signal, the halo-FAPA has been characterized and plasma diagnostics were conducted. The mercury signal strongly increases with increasing discharge current and smaller discharge dimensions. Signal increase is smaller for higher gas flow rates in the afterglow region while the signal is most strongly dependent on gas flow rates in the discharge region. There is an optimum of about 200 mL min-1 as lower flow rates increase the discharge temperature at the cost of emerging discharge instability. Rotational temperature is well suited to measure the influence a modified experimental setup or altered operating parameters have. Using two different molecular species, rotational temperatures depending on operating parameters were determined for both halo-FAPA experimental setups, old and new. Excitation temperatures were determined using helium emission lines. Ranging from 2600 K to 2950 K, they are typical for this kind of glow discharge, though large uncertainties of up to 400 K did exist. Unlike rotational temperatures, excitation temperatures have been almost independent from water introduction into the discharge via a DOD aerosol generator. Electron number densities were measured from both STARK broadening of the BALMER series Hβ line at 486.132 nm (Ne = 1,2 · 1020} m-3) as well as the SAHA-EGGERT equation using magnesium atomic and ion lines (Ne = 1014 m-3). Different results from these measurements suggest non-thermal ionization mechanisms such as PENNING ionization, which was confirmed by ionization temperature measurements of about 5400 K -- 5500 K using SAHA-EGGERT equation. Aqueous mercury solutions were also introduced into the halo-FAPA source and detected via optical emission spectrometry. Sample introduction via conventional, low-flow pneumatic nebulization and DOD aerosol generation were compared. The latter showed far superior results in optical emission spectrometry. Using the DOD aerosol generator, the halo-FAPA-OES system could be calibrated based on a dosing frequency-based strategy, resulting in an absolute limit of detection of (21 ± 14) pg s-1 (U; k=2).Die halo-FAPA (halo-shaped flowing atmospheric pressure afterglow) hat eine Gleichspannungsglimmentladung (120 V – 250 V, 2 mA – 80 mA) bei Umgebungsbedingungen zur Grundlage. Als Elektroden dienen dabei zwei Edelstahlkapillaren (i. D. 2,4 mm bzw. 1,0 mm), welche konzentrisch angeordnet sind und somit einen äußeren und einen inneren Kanal bilden. Sie werden vom Arbeitsgas Helium (10 mL min-1 – 1000 mL min-1) durchflossen, sodass das aus der Entladung resultierende Plasma über den Bereich der Entladung hinaus erweitert wird. Dieser Bereich wird als Nachglühbereich (afterglow) bezeichnet. Wird eine Probe dem äußeren Kanal zugeführt, wechselwirkt sie mit direkt in der Entladung gebildeten Spezies (z. B. e-, He+, He*), was den Elektronentransfer als Ionisierungs- bzw. Anregungsmechanismus begünstigt. Wird die Probe dagegen in den inneren Kanal eingebracht, wechselwirkt sie mit den Reaktionsprodukten der zuvor genannten Spezies mit den Bestandteilen der Luft, zu denen Wasserclusterionen (H(H2O)n+) zählen. Diese erlauben eine schonende Ionisierung von Molekülen durch Protonenübertragungsreaktionen. Die halo-FAPA hat sich bei Probenzuführung in den Nachglühbereich als sehr leistungsfähig in der Molekülionenmassenspektrometrie bewiesen. Sie ist einfach und kostengünstig aufgebaut, in Verbindung mit der MS sehr nachweisstark und kommt mit sehr geringen Probenmengen aus. Diese können nach dem ADI-MS-Prinzip oder im kontinuierlichen Fluss zugeführt werden. Es wurde die praktische Umsetzung der halo-FAPA überarbeitet, sodass die einfache Anpassung des Entladungsvolumens als zusätzlicher Freiheitsgrad bei der Optimierung der Betriebsbedingungen etabliert werden konnte. Außerdem wurden Schwächen der ursprünglichen Konstruktion hinsichtlich Aerosoltransport, Kontaminationsgefahr und Temperaturbeständigkeit verbessert. Es wurde ein Versuchsaufbau entwickelt, der die schnelle Zu- und Abschaltung der Beladung des Arbeitsgases mit dem Modellanalyten Quecksilberdampf im laufenden Betrieb erlaubt. Anhand des Quecksilbersignals wurde die halo-FAPA emissionsspektrometrisch charakterisiert, indem die Betriebsparameter hinsichtlich maximaler Signalintensität optimiert wurden. Das Signal steigt mit steigendem Strom und kleinerem Entladungsvolumen stark und mit steigender Gasflussrate im Nachglühbereich leicht an, während die Abhängigkeit vom Gasfluss in der Entladungszone besonders stark ist. Weil sie bei niedrigen Flussraten zwar die Temperatur der Entladung erhöhen, die Entladung jedoch auch zunehmend instabiler wird, ergibt sich ein Optimum, das etwa bei 200 mL min-1 liegt. Der Eintrag von Wasser in die Entladungszone führt mit steigenden Flussraten schnell zu einem Abfall des Emissionssignals. Die Rotationstemperatur ist gut geeignet, um den Einfluss eines veränderten Versuchsaufbaus oder veränderlicher Betriebsparameter auf die Temperatur aufzuzeichnen. Anhand zweier verschiedenener Plasmaspezies wurde die Rotationstemperatur der halo-FAPA ermittelt. Sowohl der alte als auch der neue Aufbau der halo-FAPA wurden eingehend charakterisiert, indem die Rotationstemperaturen in Abhängigkeit verschiedener Betriebsparameter aufgezeichnet wurden. Die mittels Emissionslinien des Heliums bestimmten Anregungstemperaturen von ca. 2600 K bis 2950 K liegen im für eine Entladung dieser Art zu erwartenden Bereich, wobei bei der Ermittlung Unsicherheiten von bis zu 400 K zu berücksichtigen waren. Im Gegensatz zur Rotationstemperatur hat sich die Anregungstemperatur als nahezu unabhängig von der Zufuhr geringer Wassermengen in die Entladungszone mittels des DOD-Aerosolgenerators gezeigt. Die Elektronenanzahldichte wurde einerseits mit einem auf der STARK-Linienverbreiterung der Hβ-Linie der BALMER-Serie bei 486,132 nm basierenden Verfahren ermittelt. Der hierbei ermittelte Wert von Ne = 1,2 · 1020 m-3 für einen repräsentativen Satz von Betriebsparametern ist in guter Übereinstimmung mit für vergleichbare Plasmen gemessene Werte. Darüber hinaus wurde die Elektronenanzahldichte mittels der SAHA-EGGERT-Gleichung aus jeweils einer Atom- und Ionenlinie des Magnesiums zu etwa Ne = 1014 m-3 bestimmt. Dies ist ein starker Hinweis auf nichtthermische Ionisierungsmechanismen wie die PENNING-Ionisation. Dies wurde durch die Bestimmung der Ionisationstemperatur mittels der SAHA-EGGERT-Gleichung zu etwa 5400 K – 5500 K bestätigt. Quecksilber wurde auch in wässriger Lösung in die halo-FAPA eingebracht und emissionsspektrometrisch nachgewiesen, wobei der Eintrag mit einem konventionellen Niedrigflusszerstäubersystem und dem DOD-Aerosolgenerator verglichen wurden. Es hat sich dabei gezeigt, dass der DOD-Aerosolgenerator hier deutlich überlegen ist. Weiterhin war es möglich, mittels des DOD-Aerosolgenerators eine dosierfrequenzbasierte Kalibrierung durchzuführen. Dabei wurde eine absolute Nachweisgrenze von (21 ± 14) pg s-1 (U; k=2) bestimmt.XI, 253 Seiten ; Illustrationen, Diagramm

Discourse on disability: Main dichotomous dimensions

Nuestra posición es el discurso social sobre la discapacidad, el cual considera que la discapacidad se da por la interrelación de una condición de salud y las barreras del entorno, las cuales son físicas, actitudinales y culturales. Asimismo, entendemos discurso como una forma de dar sentido a los fenómenos de la realidad y que puede guiar nuestros actos. Desde este enfoque, el estudio del discurso sobre la discapacidad puede explicar la forma de actuar de la sociedad respecto a la misma. Se analizan las principales dimensiones dicotómicas del discurso sobre la discapacidad en Actas del Plenario de la Asamblea Legislativa de Costa Rica en que se discute la aprobación de la CIDPCD, grupos de discusión con padres de niños con discapacidad e historias de vida de personas con discapacidad. Los resultados muestran una inestabilidad discursiva, porque enuncian construcciones de diferentes discursos sobre la discapacidad, lo que dificulta la inclusión social de esta población.Neste artigo, abordamos um discurso social sobre a deficiência, que considera que a deficiência se deve à inter-relação entre uma condição de saúde e barreiras ambientais, que são físicas, atitudinais e culturais. Entendemos o discurso como um modo de conferir significado aos fenômenos da realidade e que pode guiar nossas ações. Nessa perspectiva, o estudo desse discurso pode explicar modos de ação da sociedade em relação à deficiência. As principais dimensões dicotômicas do discurso sobre a deficiência são analisadas na Ata Plenária da Assembléia Legislativa da Costa Rica, na qual são discutidas a aprovação da CIDPCD, grupos de discussão com pais de crianças com deficiência e histórias de vida de pessoas com deficiência. Os resultados mostram uma instabilidade discursiva, pois enunciam construções de diferentes discursos sobre a deficiência, o que dificulta a inclusão social dessa população.UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Artes y Letras::Instituto de Investigaciones Lingüísticas (INIL

El discurso sobre la discapacidad: principales dimensiones dicotómicas

In this work our position is the social discourse on disability, which considers that disability is due to the interrelation of a health condition and the environmental barriers, which are physical, attitudinal and cultural. Likewise, we understand discourse as a way of giving meaning to the phenomena of reality, which can guide our actions. From this perspective, the study of the discourse on disability can explain the way society acts in relation to it. The main dichotomous dimensions of the discourse on disability are analyzed in Plenary Minutes of the Legislative Assembly of Costa Rica, in which the approval of the CRPD, discussion groups with parents of children with disabilities, and narrative interviews of people with disabilities are discussed. The results show a discursive instability, because they state constructions of different discourses on disability, which makes social inclusion of this population difficult.Nuestra posición es el discurso social sobre la discapacidad, el cual considera que la discapacidad se da por la interrelación de una condición de salud y las barreras del entorno, las cuales son físicas, actitudinales y culturales. Asimismo, entendemos discurso como una forma de dar sentido a los fenómenos de la realidad y que puede guiar nuestros actos. Desde este enfoque, el estudio del discurso sobre la discapacidad puede explicar la forma de actuar de la sociedad respecto a la misma. Se analizan las principales dimensiones dicotómicas del discurso sobre la discapacidad en Actas del Plenario de la Asamblea Legislativa de Costa Rica en que se discute la aprobación de la CIDPCD, grupos de discusión con padres de niños con discapacidad e historias de vida de personas con discapacidad. Los resultados muestran una inestabilidad discursiva, porque enuncian construcciones de diferentes discursos sobre la discapacidad, lo que dificulta la inclusión social de esta población.Neste artigo, abordamos um discurso social sobre a deficiência, que considera que a deficiência se deve à inter-relação entre uma condição de saúde e barreiras ambientais, que são físicas, atitudinais e culturais. Entendemos o discurso como um modo de conferir significado aos fenômenos da realidade e que pode guiar nossas ações. Nessa perspectiva, o estudo desse discurso pode explicar modos de ação da sociedade em relação à deficiência. As principais dimensões dicotômicas do discurso sobre a deficiência são analisadas na Ata Plenária da Assembléia Legislativa da Costa Rica, na qual são discutidas a aprovação da CIDPCD, grupos de discussão com pais de crianças com deficiência e histórias de vida de pessoas com deficiência. Os resultados mostram uma instabilidade discursiva, pois enunciam construções de diferentes discursos sobre a deficiência, o que dificulta a inclusão social dessa população

Actos de habla en editoriales del periódico "La Nación" de Costa Rica

This work presents the analysis of speech acts used in editorials of Costa Rican&nbsp;newspaper La Naci&oacute;n, regarding one the biggest political scandals, supposedly&nbsp;on corruption grounds, occurred in the latest years, in which three former&nbsp;presidents of the republic were involved. These results correspond to a critical&nbsp;discourse analysis on the treatment given by this newspaper to one of these&nbsp;scandals, the &ldquo;CCSS-Fischel&rdquo; case, (or &ldquo;Finnish Credit&rdquo;). In this investigation,&nbsp;said speech acts were analyzed with the objective of detecting the existence of&nbsp;power struggles. In the article such speech acts are examined and, furthermore,&nbsp;the necessary conditions for their accomplishment are established. The study&nbsp;is based on Searle&rsquo;s theory of the Speech Acts, with the contribution, mainly,&nbsp;of studies made by Eemeren. Also, we observed that the sources consulted did&nbsp;not mention the necessary conditions to carry out the different speech acts.&nbsp;This is why we decided to establish them in order to obtain a more accurate&nbsp;&nbsp;analysis and to validate our results.Este trabajo presenta el an&aacute;lisis de los actos de habla utilizados en los editoriales del peri&oacute;dico costarricense La Naci&oacute;n, a prop&oacute;sito de uno los mayores&nbsp;esc&aacute;ndalos pol&iacute;ticos por supuestos actos de corrupci&oacute;n ocurridos en los &uacute;ltimos&nbsp;a&ntilde;os en Costa Rica, en los cuales se vieron involucrados tres ex presidentes&nbsp;de este pa&iacute;s. Estos resultados corresponden a un an&aacute;lisis cr&iacute;tico del discurso&nbsp;sobre el tratamiento que este peri&oacute;dico dio a uno de estos esc&aacute;ndalos, el caso&nbsp;&ldquo;CCSS-Fischel&rdquo; (o &ldquo;Cr&eacute;dito finland&eacute;s&rdquo;).&nbsp;En esta investigaci&oacute;n se analizaron los actos de habla utilizados, con el prop&oacute;sito&nbsp;de examinar si manifestaban luchas de poder. En el art&iacute;culo se examinan los&nbsp;actos de habla observados y, adem&aacute;s, se establecen las condiciones necesarias&nbsp;para la realizaci&oacute;n de &eacute;stos. El estudio se hace a partir de la teor&iacute;a de los actos&nbsp;de habla de Searle y de los aportes, principalmente, de van Eemeren. Asimismo,&nbsp;nos percatamos de que en las distintas fuentes consultadas no se expon&iacute;an las&nbsp;condiciones necesarias para la realizaci&oacute;n de distintos actos de habla, por lo cual&nbsp;se decidi&oacute; establecerlas para llevar a cabo un an&aacute;lisis m&aacute;s certero y otorgarle&nbsp;mayor validez a nuestros resultados

Exclusion, discrimination and disability: discourse about disability in the plenary session of the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly

En el presente artículo se busca analizar el discurso sobre la discapacidad que se manifiesta en Actas de Sesiones del Plenario de la Asamblea Legislativa de Costa Rica, con el fin de identificar aquellos componentes que puedan resultar excluyentes y discriminatorios para las personas con discapacidad. Se aplican fundamentos teóricos y categorías metodológicas del análisis crítico del discurso. Los resultados evidencian construcciones discriminatorias y menospreciativas hacia las personas con discapacidad por parte de diputados y diputadas.The objective of this article is to analyze the discourse of disability that is expressed in the Plenary Session of the Costa Rican Legislative Assembly, in order to identify those components that may be exclusionary and discriminatory for people with disabilities. Theoretical foundations and methodological categories of critical discourse analysis have been applied. The results show discriminatory and disparaging constructions towards people with disabilities by Legislative Assembly members.UCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Artes y Letras::Instituto de Investigaciones Lingüísticas (INIL)UCR::Vicerrectoría de Docencia::Artes y Letras::Facultad de Letras::Escuela de Filología, Lingüística y Literatur

El discurso alarmista en la televisión en Costa Rica: el discurso sobre la criminalidad en los textos informativos.

According to the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) for the year 2005 among Costa Rican population there was a disproportionate perception of their chances of becoming victims of certain crimes, mainly against life. In addition, the results of a survey of 2, 270 people who claimed to watch news about crime, showed that 78.3% believed that Costa Rica is poco seguro (not very safe) or nada seguro (not safe at all). This leads to the conclusion that television and the manner in which criminal activity is presented plays a fundamental role in generating the sense of insecurity in the country. These findings led us to conduct a discourse analysis on crime in Costa Rican television news. The aim of our study was to analyze the discourse on crime and see if its composition may favor the generation of fear in viewers. In order to carry out this analysis, we built a theoretical constructivist basis (Neuroscience and Cognitive Science), which was the base for a new definition of the concept of discourse as a knowledge system, which, in turn, determined the method of analysis, a critical discourse analysis. From our constructivist (social) approach, the textual analysis turns out to be a very fine and very complex one. For that reason our corpus is composed of six television news pieces about crime from the most viewed TV channels in Costa Rica (Noticias Repretel and Telenoticias). These television news shows were transcribed in detail, for which we build a transcription system that allowed us to approach the texts as a whole unit. The main categories of analysis are propositions, implications, themes, actors, realce (similar to emphasis) and quotations. Among the most important findings we have that: a) The most widely watched television news in Costa Rica meet the criteria of sensationalism; b) The structure of television news is not characterized by narrative sequencies, because we found an argumentative or explanatory structure; c) The media present themselves as experts and judges, a strategy of self-legitimation; d) The discourse on crime presented in television news has enough features to (potentially) produce fear in society; and e) the discourse on crime can crack the foundations of society, so we can all be potential victimaries

El discurso sobre la discapacidad: exclusión y auto-exclusión desde las familias de personas con discapacidad

Pese a que las personas con discapacidad corresponden a casi el 15% de la población mundial y sufren la exclusión social, las investigaciones sobre el discurso sobre la discapacidad son excepcionales. En el presente texto se presentan los resultados de una investigación en la que se realizaron grupos de discusión con madres de niños con y sin discapacidad. Desde una perspectiva crítica, se observó la recurrencia de construcciones sobre las personas con discapacidad que reproducen valoraciones negativas, menospreciativas, la dependencia y la condición de salud como el elemento distinto. Este discurso dificulta la inclusión social de esta población.Although people with disabilities account for almost 15% of the world's population and suffer from social exclusion, research on discourse of disability is scarce. This text presents the results of a focus group research with mothers of children with and without disabilities. From a critical perspective, we observed recurrence in constructions about people with disabilities that reproduce negative evaluations, dependence, and health condition as distinctive elements. Such discourse hinders social inclusion of this populationUniversidad de Costa Rica/[]/UCR/Costa RicaUCR::Vicerrectoría de Investigación::Unidades de Investigación::Artes y Letras::Instituto de Investigaciones Lingüísticas (INIL