PREDICTION OF CROP YIELDS ACROSS FOUR CLIMATE ZONES IN GERMANY: AN ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK APPROACH

This paper shows the ability of artificial neural network technology to be used for the approximation and prediction of crop yields at rural district and federal state scales in different climate zones based on reported daily weather data. The method may later be used to construct regional time series of agricultural output under climate change, based on the highly resolved output of the global circulation models and regional models. Three 30-year combined historical data sets of rural district yields (oats, spring barley and silage maize), daily temperatures (mean, maximum, dewpoint) and precipitation were constructed. They were used with artificial neural network technology to investigate, simulate and predict historical time series of crop yields in four climate zones of Germany. Final neural networks, trained with data sets of three climate zones and tested against an independent northern zone, have high predictive power (0.83global change, agriculture, artificial neural networks, yield prediction

ESTIMATES OF THE EXTERNAL AND SUSTAINABILITY COSTS OF CLIMATE CHANGE

social cost of carbon, climate change

Offshore-Windstromerzeugung in der Nordsee - eine ökonomische und ökologische Sackgasse?

Wind power

Hepatitis C in Special Patient Cohorts: New Opportunities in Decompensated Liver Cirrhosis, End-Stage Renal Disease and Transplant Medicine

Worldwide, hepatitis C virus (HCV) is a common infection. Due to new antiviral approaches and the approval of direct-acting antiviral agents (DAA), HCV therapy has become more comfortable. Nevertheless, there are special patient groups, in whom treatment of HCV is still challenging. Due to only few data available, tolerability and efficacy of DAAs in special patient cohorts still remain unclear. Such special patient cohorts comprise HCV in patients with decompensated liver disease (Child-Pugh Class B or C), patients with chronic kidney disease, and patients on waiting lists to renal/liver transplantation or those with HCV recurrence after liver transplantation. HCV infection in these patient cohorts has been shown to be associated with increased morbidity and mortality and may lead to reduced graft survival after transplantation. Successful eradication of HCV results in a better outcome concerning liver-related complications and in a better clinical outcome of these patients. In this review, we analyze available data and results from recently published literature and provide an overview of current recommendations of HCV-therapy regimen in these special patient cohorts

Neurobehavioral deficits at age 7 years associated with prenatal exposure to toxicants from maternal seafood diet

To determine the possible neurotoxic impact of prenatal exposure to polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs), we analyzed banked cord blood from a Faroese birth cohort for PCBs. The subjects were born in 1986–1987, and 917 cohort members had completed a series of neuropsychological tests at age 7 years. Major PCB congeners (118, 138, 153, and 180), the calculated total PCB concentration, and the PCB exposure estimated in a structural equation model showed weak associations with test deficits, with statistically significant negative associations only with the Boston Naming test. Likewise, neither hexachlorobenzene nor p,p'-dichlorodiphenyldichloroethylene showed clear links to neurobehavioral deficits. Thus, these associations were much weaker than those associated with the cord-blood mercury concentration, and adjustment for mercury substantially attenuated the regression coefficients for PCB exposure. When the outcomes were joined into motor and verbally mediated functions in a structural equation model, the PCB effects remained weak and virtually disappeared after adjustment for methylmercury exposure, while mercury remained statistically significant. Thus, in the presence of elevated methylmercury exposure, PCB neurotoxicity may be difficult to detect, and PCB exposure does not explain the methylmercury neurotoxicity previously reported in this cohort

Teaching ultrasound in a curricular course according to certified EFSUMB standards during undergraduate medical education: a prospective study

Background: As a non-invasive and readily available diagnostic tool, ultrasound is one of the most important imaging techniques in medicine. Ultrasound is usually trained during residency preferable according to German Society of Ultrasound in Medicine (DEGUM) standards. Our curriculum calls for undergraduate training in ultrasound of medical students in their 4th year of undergraduate education. An explorative pilot study evaluated the acceptance of this teaching method, and compared it to other practical activities in medical education at Muenster University. Methods: 240 medical students in their 4th year of undergraduate medical education participated in the training and completed a pre- and post-questionnaire for self-assessment of technical knowledge, self-assurance of the procedure, and motivation in performing ultrasound using a Likert scale. Moreover, students were asked about their interest in pursuing a career in internal medicine. To compare this training to other educational activities a standardized online evaluation tool was used. A direct observation of procedural skills assessment (DOPS) for the first time applied on ultrasound aimed to independently assess the success of our teaching method. Results: There was a significant increase in technical knowledge and self-assurance (p < 0.001) of the students’ self-assessments. The clinical relevance and self-motivation of the teaching were evaluated positively. The students’ DOPS results demonstrated proficiency in the understanding of anatomic structures shown in ultrasonographic images, including terminology, machine settings, and transducer frequencies. Conclusions: Training ultrasound according to certified DEGUM standards was successful and should be offered in undergraduate medical education. The evaluation of the course affirmed the necessity, quality and clinical relevance of the course with a top ranking score of hands-on training courses within the educational activities of the Medical Faculty of Muenster.<br

Long-Term Renal Function in Liver Transplant Recipients After Conversion From Calcineurin Inhibitors to mTOR Inhibitors

BACKGROUND: Renal dysfunction often occurs in liver transplant (LT) recipients receiving calcineurin inhibitor (CNI)-based immunosuppressive regimens, increasing morbidity and mortality rates. Replacement of CNIs by mTOR inhibitor-based immunosuppressive protocols may prevent renal impairment in LT recipients. MATERIAL AND METHODS: Outcomes in patients who underwent LT between 1996 and 2010 at our center and who were switched from CNI-based to mTOR inhibitor-based immunosuppression were retrospectively analyzed. Renal course, hyperlipidemia, and graft rejection were assessed in patients maintained on this CNI-free regimen for at least 24 months. RESULTS: Of the 85 patients switched from CNI-based to mTOR inhibitor-based, CNI-free immunosuppression, 78 met the inclusion criteria. Within the first 6 weeks after switching, the covariable adjusted estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) increased 5.6 mL/min [95% confidence interval 2.6–8.7 mL/min, p<0.001], but there were no further statistically noticeable changes in eGFR. Concentrations of cholesterol and triglycerides increased statistically, noticeable within the first 12 months after drug conversion. Histologically proven graft rejection was observed in 4 patients (5.1%) after conversion. CONCLUSIONS: Conversion from CNI-based to CNI-free, mTOR inhibitor-based immunosuppression after LT is safe and can result in significant renal recovery. CNI-free, mTOR inhibitor-based immunosuppression is a potential option for patients with contraindications for CNIs and for LT recipients with rapid reduction in kidney function due to CNIs

Harmonisation framework for health based evaluation of indoor emissions from construction products in the European Union using the EU-LCI concept

This report describes a harmonised procedure for establishing a list of compounds and their associated LCI (Lowest Concentration of Interest) values for the evaluation of emissions from construction products taking into account existing procedures used in some Member States (i.e. ANSES in France and AgBB in Germany). It provides an appropriate health‐protective, science-based and transparent yet pragmatic approach with a flexible framework that enables review of the procedure to take into account new knowledge (e.g. data resulting from the REACH implementation process) for future revision of the EU-LCI master list in terms of both the compounds listed and their EU-LCI values.JRC.I.1-Chemical Assessment and Testin