The didactic value of linking models: experiences from the LEI model funnel

The complexity of agri-environmental economic issues is such that a model that is fully consistent at all levels of aggregation and all type of questions to be addressed is not available at the Agricultural Economics Research Institute in the Hague LEI. Such a model is probably also not feasible. At LEI this problem is solved by linking models at different scales of analysis: global economic, national economy-wide, regional agricultural, national spatial and farm levels. This linked model system enlarges scope and consistency of the analysis. The goal of the model linking, however, is not a full integration and, ultimately, simultaneous optimization of the models. Therefore, the different models of the LEI model funnel are often rather loosely linked. Hence, it is not surprising that the models sometimes produce different results even for the shared variables. This article describes the difficulties to share and exchange information between different models and identifies possible solutions which aim at a more consistent analysis along the models combined at LEI while maintaining the diversity of modelling approaches

Effects of agri-environmental measures and changes in EU single farm payments on Dutch agriculture

Part of the Health check of the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) of the European Union in 2008, will be a discussion of the linkage between direct payments to farmers and the contribution of agricultural production to social important values. The objective of this paper is to analyse the economic and environmental effects of extra region specific environmental measures and a redistribution of direct payments to the Dutch agricultural sector in 2020. In doing so a chain of models is used from the dairy farm level to the regional sector level in the Netherlands to the European sector level. From the dairy farm model it is found that the extra-environmental measures result in a decrease in the number of dairy cows per ha and a decrease in the gross margin per ha in the regions at hand. At maximum the gross margin decreases with about € 1,300 per ha. This is the case on intensive types of dairy farms in the Nature2000 areas. Linking and aggregating these results to the regional sector level and using the sector model of the Netherlands it is found that income from dairy farming at sector level and national milk production decreases with about 6%. Emission of ammonia decreases with 11% and Nitrogen (N) surplus at soil level decreases with 22%. However, economic and environmental results can be very different per type of dairy farm and province.economic models, model linking, policy, regions, dairy farming, environment and nature, Agricultural and Food Policy, Agricultural Finance, Livestock Production/Industries, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

POTENTIAL IMPACTS OF BST ON THE MINNESOTA MILK SUPPLY

Livestock Production/Industries,

IDENTIFICATION AND AN L.P. ANALYSIS OF ALTERNATIVE PLANS FOR DAIRY FARM ADJUSTMENT IN SOUTH-EASTERN MINNESOTA

Livestock Production/Industries,

The didactic value of linking models: experiences from the LEI model funnel

The complexity of agri-environmental economic issues is such that a model that is fully consistent at all levels of aggregation and all type of questions to be addressed is not available at the Agricultural Economics Research Institute in the Hague LEI. Such a model is probably also not feasible. At LEI this problem is solved by linking models at different scales of analysis: global economic, national economy-wide, regional agricultural, national spatial and farm levels. This linked model system enlarges scope and consistency of the analysis. The goal of the model linking, however, is not a full integration and, ultimately, simultaneous optimization of the models. Therefore, the different models of the LEI model funnel are often rather loosely linked. Hence, it is not surprising that the models sometimes produce different results even for the shared variables. This article describes the difficulties to share and exchange information between different models and identifies possible solutions which aim at a more consistent analysis along the models combined at LEI while maintaining the diversity of modelling approaches.economic models, combined models, quantitative policy analysis, Agricultural and Food Policy, Research Methods/ Statistical Methods,

Ex Ante Impact Assessment of Policies Affecting Land Use, Part B: Application of the Analytical Framework

The use of science-based tools for impact assessment has increasingly gained focus in addressing the complexity of interactions between environment, society, and economy. For integrated assessment of policies affecting land use, an analytical framework was developed. The aim of our work was to apply the analytical framework for specific scenario cases and in combination with quantitative and qualitative application methods. The analytical framework was tested for two cases involving the ex ante impact assessment of: (1) a European Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) financial reform scenario employing a modeling approach and combined with a comprehensive indicator analysis and valuation; and (2) a regional bioenergy policy scenario, employing a fully participatory approach. The results showed that European land use in general is less sensitive to changes in the Common Agricultural Policy, but in the context of regions there can be significant impacts on the functions of land use. In general, the implementation of the analytical framework for impact assessment proved to be doable with both methods, i.e., with the quantitative modeling and with the qualitative participatory approach. A key advantage of using the system of linked quantitative models is that it makes possible the simultaneous consideration of all relevant sectors of the economy without abstaining from a great level of detail for sectors of particular interest. Other advantages lie in the incontestable character of the results. Based on neutral, existing data with a fixed set of settings and regions, an absolute comparability and reproducibility throughout Europe can be maintained. Analyzing the pros and cons of both approaches showed that they could be used complementarily rather than be seen as competing alternatives

The Impact of Milk Quota Abolishment on Dutch Agriculture and Economy: Applying an Agricultural Sector Model Integrated Into a Mixed Input-Output Model

A modelling system is presented and used to analyse the impact of milk quota abolishment on Dutch agriculture and economy. The modelling system consists of a regionalised, agri-environmental, partial equilibrium, mathematical programming model of agriculture supply in the Netherlands integrated into a mixed input-output model. It was found that abolition of the milk quota system has large impacts on milk production and livestock numbers and composition. The latter is explained by the strict mineral and manure policies in the Netherlands; an increase in the numbers of dairy cows leaves less room for other livestock. It is also found that, although the total effect on gross value added in the Dutch economy is limited, the effects for individual industries can be large.Mathematical programming, Manure markets, Input-Output, Dairy policy, Agribusiness,

Effects of abolition of the EU milk quota system for Dutch agriculture and environment

Following model calculations presented in this paper he removal of the EU quota system will result in 21% more milk production in the Netherlands. Large dairy farms expand and achieve higher income levels compared to a scenario with quota continuation, as increasing scale of production and decrease of quota costs outweigh price reductions and extra manure disposal costs. Production in the category of relatively small farms, however, declines and farms in this category will leave business. Sector income will only marginally fall while production expansion will remain within the limits of present environmental policies related to manure and nutrient applications.milk quota, mathematical programming models, environment, Agricultural and Food Policy,