Advances in forecasting with neural networks? Empirical evidence from the NN3 competition on time series prediction

This paper reports the results of the NN3 competition, which is a replication of the M3 competition with an extension of the competition towards neural network (NN) and computational intelligence (CI) methods, in order to assess what progress has been made in the 10 years since the M3 competition. Two masked subsets of the M3 monthly industry data, containing 111 and 11 empirical time series respectively, were chosen, controlling for multiple data conditions of time series length (short/long), data patterns (seasonal/non-seasonal) and forecasting horizons (short/medium/long). The relative forecasting accuracy was assessed using the metrics from the M3, together with later extensions of scaled measures, and non-parametric statistical tests. The NN3 competition attracted 59 submissions from NN, CI and statistics, making it the largest CI competition on time series data. Its main findings include: (a) only one NN outperformed the damped trend using the sMAPE, but more contenders outperformed the AutomatANN of the M3; (b) ensembles of CI approaches performed very well, better than combinations of statistical methods; (c) a novel, complex statistical method outperformed all statistical and Cl benchmarks; and (d) for the most difficult subset of short and seasonal series, a methodology employing echo state neural networks outperformed all others. The NN3 results highlight the ability of NN to handle complex data, including short and seasonal time series, beyond prior expectations, and thus identify multiple avenues for future research. (C) 2011 International Institute of Forecasters. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved

Subaru FOCAS survey of z=7-7.1 Ly{\alpha} emitters: a test for z >~ 7 Ly{\alpha} photometric luminosity functions

Recent observations of z >~ 7 Ly{\alpha} emitters (LAEs) have derived a variety of Ly{\alpha} luminosity functions (LFs) with contradictory results, evolution or non-evolution from z <~ 6, the epoch after reionization. This could be because most of z >~ 7 LFs comprise photometric candidates and might include some contaminations. We conducted the Subaru Telescope Faint Object Camera And Spectrograph narrowband NB980 ({\lambda}c ~ 9800A, FWHM ~ 100A) imaging and spectroscopy survey of z=7-7.1 LAEs to compare its "contamination-free" result with z >~ 7 photometric Ly{\alpha} LFs previously derived. We imaged the Subaru Deep Field and the sky around a cluster MS 1520.1+3002 and found one LAE candidate, but spectroscopy did not reveal Ly{\alpha} though deep enough to detect it. We calculated the expected number of LAEs in our survey, using five z=7 and three z=7.7 Ly{\alpha} LFs from recent surveys. Seven of them are consistent with null detection (0.1^{+1.8}_{-0.1}-1.1^{+2.2}_{-1.0} LAEs) within errors including Poisson statistics and cosmic variance, but average values (0.7-1.1 LAEs) predicted from one z=7 and two z=7.7 LFs among the seven indicate nearly a single detection. The remaining one z=7 LF predicts 3.0^{+3.2}_{-2.0} LAEs. As to z=7, the discrepancy likely comes from different LAE selection criteria. For z=7.7, there are two possibilities; (1) If z=7.7 LAEs are somehow brighter in Ly{\alpha} luminosity than lower redshift LAEs, z=7.7 LF is observed to be similar to or higher than lower redshift LFs even if attenuated by neutral hydrogen. (2) All/most of the z=7.7 candidates are not LAEs. This supports the decline of LF from z ~ 6 to 7.7 and reionization at z ~ 6-7.7.Comment: Accepted for publication in Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society, 2012 March 0

[OIII] Emission and Gas Kinematics in a Lyman-alpha Blob at z ~ 3.1

We present spectroscopic measurements of the [OIII] emission line from two subregions of strong Lyman-alpha emission in a radio-quiet Lyman-alpha blob (LAB). The blob under study is LAB1 (Steidel et al. 2000) at z ~ 3.1, and the [OIII] detections are from the two Lyman break galaxies embedded in the blob halo. The [OIII] measurements were made with LUCIFER on the 8.4m Large Binocular Telescope and NIRSPEC on 10m Keck Telescope. Comparing the redshift of the [OIII] measurements to Lyman-alpha redshifts from SAURON (Weijmans et al. 2010) allows us to take a step towards understanding the kinematics of the gas in the blob. Using both LUCIFER and NIRSPEC we find velocity offsets between the [OIII] and Lyman-alpha redshifts that are modestly negative or consistent with 0 km/s in both subregions studied (ranging from -72 +/- 42 -- +6 +/- 33 km/s). A negative offset means Lyman-alpha is blueshifted with respect to [OIII], a positive offset then implies Lyman-alpha is redshifted with respect to [OIII]. These results may imply that outflows are not primarily responsible for Lyman alpha escape in this LAB, since outflows are generally expected to produce a positive velocity offset (McLinden et al. 2011). In addition, we present an [OIII] line flux upper limit on a third region of LAB1, a region that is unassociated with any underlying galaxy. We find that the [OIII] upper limit from the galaxy-unassociated region of the blob is at least 1.4 -- 2.5 times fainter than the [OIII] flux from one of the LBG-associated regions and has an [OIII] to Lyman-alpha ratio measured at least 1.9 -- 3.4 times smaller than the same ratio measured from one of the LBGs.Comment: submitted to Ap

First performance of the gems + gmos system. Part1. Imaging

During the commissioning of the Gemini MCAO System (GeMS), we had the opportunity to obtain data with the Gemini Multi-Object Spectrograph (GMOS), the most utilised instrument at Gemini South Observatory, in March and May 2012. Several globular clusters were observed in imaging mode that allowed us to study the performance of this new and untested combination. GMOS is a visible instrument, hence pushing MCAO toward the visible.We report here on the results with the GMOS instruments, derive photometric performance in term of Full Width Half Maximum (FWHM) and throughput. In most of the cases, we obtained an improvement factor of at least 2 against the natural seeing. This result also depends on the Natural Guide Star constellation selected for the observations and we then study the impact of the guide star selection on the FWHM performance.We also derive a first astrometric analysis showing that the GeMS+GMOS system provide an absolute astrometric precision better than 8mas and a relative astrometric precision lower than 50 mas.Comment: 13 pages, 11 figures, accepted for publication in MNRAS on March 23rd 201

The Subaru high-z quasar survey: discovery of faint z~6 quasars

We present the discovery of one or two extremely faint z~6 quasars in 6.5 deg^2 utilizing a unique capability of the wide-field imaging of the Subaru/Suprime-Cam. The quasar selection was made in (i'-z_B) and (z_B-z_R) colors, where z_B and z_R are bandpasses with central wavelengths of 8842A and 9841A, respectively. The color selection can effectively isolate quasars at z~6 from M/L/T dwarfs without the J-band photometry down to z_R<24.0, which is 3.5 mag. deeper than SDSS. We have selected 17 promising quasar candidates. The follow-up spectroscopy for seven targets identified one apparent quasar at z=6.156 with M_1450=-23.10. We also identified one possible quasar at z=6.041 with a faint continuum of M_1450=-22.58 and a narrow Lyman-alpha emission with HWHM=427 km/s, which cannot be distinguished from Lyman-alpha emitters. We derive the quasar luminosity function at z~6 by combining our faint quasar sample with the bright quasar samples by SDSS and CFHQS. Including our data points invokes a higher number density in the faintest bin of the quasar luminosity function than the previous estimate employed. This suggests a steeper faint-end slope than lower-z, though it is yet uncertain based on a small number of spectroscopically identified faint quasars and several quasar candidates are still remain to be diagnosed. The steepening of the quasar luminosity function at the faint-end does increase the expected emission rate of the ionizing photon, however, it only changes by a factor of ~2-6. This was found to be still insufficient for the required photon budget of reionization at z~6.Comment: 10 pages, 8 figures. Accepted for publication in Ap