Integrating evidence, politics and society: a methodology for the science–policy interface

There is currently intense debate over expertise, evidence and ‘post-truth’ politics, and how this is influencing policy formulation and implementation. In this article, we put forward a methodology for evidence-based policy making intended as a way of helping navigate this web of complexity. Starting from the premise of why it is so crucial that policies to meet major global challenges use scientific evidence, we discuss the socio-political difficulties and complexities that hinder this process. We discuss the necessity of embracing a broader view of what constitutes evidence—science and the evaluation of scientific evidence cannot be divorced from the political, cultural and social debate that inevitably and justifiably surrounds these major issues. As a pre-requisite for effective policy making, we propose a methodology that fully integrates scientific investigation with political debate and social discourse. We describe a rigorous process of mapping, analysis, visualisation and sharing of evidence, constructed from integrating science and social science data. This would then be followed by transparent evidence evaluation, combining independent assessment to test the validity and completeness of the evidence with deliberation to discover how the evidence is perceived, misunderstood or ignored. We outline the opportunities and the problems derived from the use of digital communications, including social media, in this methodology, and emphasise the power of creative and innovative evidence visualisation and sharing in shaping policy

Integer and half-integer flux-quantum transitions in a niobium/iron-pnictide loop

The recent discovery of iron-based superconductors challenges the existing paradigm of high-temperature superconductivity. Owing to their unusual multi-orbital band structure, magnetism, and electron correlation, theories propose a unique sign reversed s-wave pairing state, with the order parameter changing sign between the electron and hole Fermi pockets. However, because of the complex Fermi surface topology and material related issues, the predicted sign reversal remains unconfirmed. Here we report a novel phase-sensitive technique for probing unconventional pairing symmetry in the polycrystalline iron-pnictides. Through the observation of both integer and half-integer flux-quantum transitions in composite niobium/iron-pnictide loops, we provide the first phase-sensitive evidence of the sign change of the order parameter in NdFeAsO0.88F0.12, lending strong support for microscopic models predicting unconventional s-wave pairing symmetry. These findings have important implications on the mechanism of pnictide superconductivity, and lay the groundwork for future studies of new physics arising from the exotic order in the FeAs-based superconductors.Comment: 23 pages, including 4 figures and supplementary informatio

Gravity of human impacts mediates coral reef conservation gains

Coral reefs provide ecosystem goods and services for millions of people in the tropics, but reef conditions are declining worldwide. Effective solutions to the crisis facing coral reefs depend in part on understanding the context under which different types of conservation benefits can be maximized. Our global analysis of nearly 1,800 tropical reefs reveals how the intensity of human impacts in the surrounding seascape, measured as a function of human population size and accessibility to reefs (“gravity”), diminishes the effectiveness of marine reserves at sustaining reef fish biomass and the presence of top predators, even where compliance with reserve rules is high. Critically, fish biomass in high-compliance marine reserves located where human impacts were intensive tended to be less than a quarter that of reserves where human impacts were low. Similarly, the probability of encountering top predators on reefs with high human impacts was close to zero, even in high-compliance marine reserves. However, we find that the relative difference between openly fished sites and reserves (what we refer to as conservation gains) are highest for fish biomass (excluding predators) where human impacts are moderate and for top predators where human impacts are low. Our results illustrate critical ecological trade-offs in meeting key conservation objectives: reserves placed where there are moderate-to-high human impacts can provide substantial conservation gains for fish biomass, yet they are unlikely to support key ecosystem functions like higher-order predation, which is more prevalent in reserve locations with low human impacts

Bright spots among the world's coral reefs

Ongoing declines in the structure and function of the world’s coral reefs1, 2 require novel approaches to sustain these ecosystems and the millions of people who depend on them3. A presently unexplored approach that draws on theory and practice in human health and rural development4, 5 is to systematically identify and learn from the ‘outliers’—places where ecosystems are substantially better (‘bright spots’) or worse (‘dark spots’) than expected, given the environmental conditions and socioeconomic drivers they are exposed to. Here we compile data from more than 2,500 reefs worldwide and develop a Bayesian hierarchical model to generate expectations of how standing stocks of reef fish biomass are related to 18 socioeconomic drivers and environmental conditions. We identify 15 bright spots and 35 dark spots among our global survey of coral reefs, defined as sites that have biomass levels more than two standard deviations from expectations. Importantly, bright spots are not simply comprised of remote areas with low fishing pressure; they include localities where human populations and use of ecosystem resources is high, potentially providing insights into how communities have successfully confronted strong drivers of change. Conversely, dark spots are not necessarily the sites with the lowest absolute biomass and even include some remote, uninhabited locations often considered near pristine6. We surveyed local experts about social, institutional, and environmental conditions at these sites to reveal that bright spots are characterized by strong sociocultural institutions such as customary taboos and marine tenure, high levels of local engagement in management, high dependence on marine resources, and beneficial environmental conditions such as deep-water refuges. Alternatively, dark spots are characterized by intensive capture and storage technology and a recent history of environmental shocks. Our results suggest that investments in strengthening fisheries governance, particularly aspects such as participation and property rights, could facilitate innovative conservation actions that help communities defy expectations of global reef degradation

The Hide-and-Seek of Grain Boundaries from Moire Pattern Fringe of Two-Dimensional Graphene

Grain boundaries (GBs) commonly exist in crystalline materials and affect various properties of materials. The facile identification of GBs is one of the significant requirements for systematical study of polycrystalline materials including recently emerging two-dimensional materials. Previous observations of GBs have been performed by various tools including high resolution transmission electron microscopy. However, a method to easily identify GBs, especially in the case of low-angle GBs, has not yet been well established. In this paper, we choose graphene bilayers with a GB as a model system and investigate the effects of interlayer rotations to the identification of GBs. We provide a critical condition between adjacent moire fringe spacings, which determines the possibility of GB recognition. In addition, for monolayer graphene with a grain boundary, we demonstrate that low-angle GBs can be distinguished easily by inducing moire patterns deliberately with an artificial reference overlayopen0

Missense mutation of Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) alters neurocognitive performance in patients with mild traumatic brain injury: a longitudinal study

The predictability of neurocognitive outcomes in patients with traumatic brain injury is not straightforward. The extent and nature of recovery in patients with mild traumatic brain injury (mTBI) are usually heterogeneous and not substantially explained by the commonly known demographic and injury-related prognostic factors despite having sustained similar injuries or injury severity. Hence, this study evaluated the effects and association of the Brain Derived Neurotrophic Factor (BDNF) missense mutations in relation to neurocognitive performance among patients with mTBI. 48 patients with mTBI were prospectively recruited and MRI scans of the brain were performed within an average 10.1 (SD 4.2) hours post trauma with assessment of their neuropsychological performance post full Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) recovery. Neurocognitive assessments were repeated again at 6 months follow-up. The paired t-test, Cohen’s d effect size and repeated measure ANOVA were performed to delineate statistically significant differences between the groups [wildtype G allele (Val homozygotes) vs. minor A allele (Met carriers)] and their neuropsychological performance across the time point (T1 = baseline/ admission vs. T2 = 6th month follow-up). Minor A allele carriers in this study generally performed more poorly on neuropsychological testing in comparison wildtype G allele group at both time points. Significant mean differences were observed among the wildtype group in the domains of memory (M = -11.44, SD = 10.0, p = .01, d = 1.22), executive function (M = -11.56, SD = 11.7, p = .02, d = 1.05) and overall performance (M = -6.89 SD = 5.3, p = .00, d = 1.39), while the minor A allele carriers showed significant mean differences in the domains of attention (M = -11.0, SD = 13.1, p = .00, d = .86) and overall cognitive performance (M = -5.25, SD = 8.1, p = .01, d = .66).The minor A allele carriers in comparison to the wildtype G allele group, showed considerably lower scores at admission and remained impaired in most domains across the timepoints, although delayed signs of recovery were noted to be significant in the domains attention and overall cognition. In conclusion, the current study has demonstrated the role of the BDNF rs6265 Val66Met polymorphism in influencing specific neurocognitive outcomes in patients with mTBI. Findings were more detrimentally profound among Met allele carriers

From food to pest: Conversion factors determine switches between ecosystem services and disservices

Ecosystem research focuses on goods and services, thereby ascribing beneficial values to the ecosystems. Depending on the context, however, outputs from ecosystems can be both positive and negative. We examined how provisioning services of wild animals and plants can switch between being services and disservices. We studied agricultural communities in Laos to illustrate when and why these switches take place. Government restrictions on land use combined with economic and cultural changes have created perceptions of rodents and plants as problem species in some communities. In other communities that are maintaining shifting cultivation practices, the very same taxa were perceived as beneficial. We propose conversion factors that in a given context can determine where an individual taxon is located along a spectrum from ecosystem service to disservice, when, and for whom. We argue that the omission of disservices in ecosystem service accounts may lead governments to direct investments at inappropriate targets

Streamwise-travelling viscous waves in channel flows

The unsteady viscous flow induced by streamwise-travelling waves of spanwise wall velocity in an incompressible laminar channel flow is investigated. Wall waves belonging to this category have found important practical applications, such as microfluidic flow manipulation via electro-osmosis and surface acoustic forcing and reduction of wall friction in turbulent wall-bounded flows. An analytical solution composed of the classical streamwise Poiseuille flow and a spanwise velocity profile described by the parabolic cylinder function is found. The solution depends on the bulk Reynolds number R, the scaled streamwise wavelength (Formula presented.), and the scaled wave phase speed U. Numerical solutions are discussed for various combinations of these parameters. The flow is studied by the boundary-layer theory, thereby revealing the dominant physical balances and quantifying the thickness of the near-wall spanwise flow. The Wentzel–Kramers–Brillouin–Jeffreys (WKBJ) theory is also employed to obtain an analytical solution, which is valid across the whole channel. For positive wave speeds which are smaller than or equal to the maximum streamwise velocity, a turning-point behaviour emerges through the WKBJ analysis. Between the wall and the turning point, the wall-normal viscous effects are balanced solely by the convection driven by the wall forcing, while between the turning point and the centreline, the Poiseuille convection balances the wall-normal diffusion. At the turning point, the Poiseuille convection and the convection from the wall forcing cancel each other out, which leads to a constant viscous stress and to the break down of the WKBJ solution. This flow regime is analysed through a WKBJ composite expansion and the Langer method. The Langer solution is simpler and more accurate than the WKBJ composite solution, while the latter quantifies the thickness of the turning-point region. We also discuss how these waves can be generated via surface acoustic forcing and electro-osmosis and propose their use as microfluidic flow mixing devices. For the electro-osmosis case, the Helmholtz–Smoluchowski velocity at the edge of the Debye–Hückel layer, which drives the bulk electrically neutral flow, is obtained by matched asymptotic expansion