Status Quo Analysis of the Flathead River Conflict

Status quo analysis algorithms developed within the paradigm of the graph model for conflict resolution are applied to an international river basin conflict involving the United States and Canada to assess the likeliness of various compromise resolutions. The conflict arose because the state of Montana feared that further expansion of the Sage Creek Coal Company facilities in Canada would pollute the Flathead River, which flows from British Columbia into Montana. Significant insights not generally available from a static stability analysis are obtained about potential resolutions of the conflict under study and about how decision makers’ interactions may direct the conflict to distinct resolutions. Analyses also show how political considerations may affect a particular decision maker’s choice, thereby influencing the evolution of the conflict

Water Supply Planning under Interdependence of Actions: Theory and Application

An ongoing water supply planning problem in the Regional Municipality of Waterloo, Ontario, Canada, is studied to select the best water supply combination, within a multiple-objective framework, when actions are interdependent. The interdependencies in the problem are described and shown to be essential features. The problem is formulated as a multiple-criteria integer program with interdependent actions. Because of the large number of potential actions and the nonconvexity of the decision space, it is quite difficult to find nondominated subsets of actions. Instead, a modified goal programming technique is suggested to identify promising subsets. The appropriateness of this technique is explained, and the lessons learned in applying it to the Waterloo water supply planning problem are described

Développements récents dans la modélisation de la persistance à long terme

Afin de modéliser efficacement la persistance dans les séries chronologiques rencontrées en hydrologie, des développements récents autour du modèle fractionnaire auto-régressif à moyenne mobile (FARMA) (fractional autoregressive-moving average model) sont présentés. On s'intéresse particulièrement ici à de nouvelles procédures permettant d'estimer les paramètres du modèle FARMA d'une manière efficace au point de vue calcul. Pour obtenir les distributions d'échantillons des estimateurs des paramètres à partir de petits échantillons, une technique faisant appel au bootstrap peut être utilisée. Des applications pratiques à des séries de débits en rivière, de précipitations et de températures, montrent l'utilité des modèles FARMA.In order to model effectively persistence in hydrologic tune series, recent developments in fractional autoregressive-moving average (FARMA) models are presented. A time series possesses persistence or long memory if it has an autocorrelation structure that attenuates slowly to zero with increasing lags. Based on the controversy surrounding the Hurst phenomenon, some hydrologists claim that it is important to employ stochastic models which have the ability to model long memory when it is present in a given time series. Fractional Gaussian noise models and approximations thereof were developed within the field of hydrology in order to be able to model long memory. However, a particularly flexible set of models having the capability to describe long memory is the FARMA family of models, which constitutes a direct generalization of autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models.In particular, like an ARIMA model, a FARMA model contains autoregressive and moving average parameters. Whereas the differencing operator d is restricted to be zero or take on positive integer values in an ARIMA model, the parameter d in a FARMA model can have real values and is estimated along with the other model parameters. For a specified range of values for the d parameter, a FARMA model has long memory. Besides reviewing the background and main theoretical properties of FARMA models, simulation and forecasting techniques are presented. Additionally, procedures for estimating the parameters of a FARMA model are given and a bootstrapping technique is described to obtain the small sample distributions of the estimated parameters.To explain how to apply FARMA models in practice and demonstrate their usefulness, they are fitted to riverflow, precipitation and temperature time series

Identifying Potential Conflict in Land-Use Planning Using a Values-Centered E-Participation Tool: A Canadian Case Study in Aggregate Mining

An innovative e-participation tool is used to facilitate the articulation of value-laden assumptions, and to identify key points of likely conflict in an aggregate mining controversy in Ontario, Canada. The expert model developed using ‘Public to Public Decision Support System (P2P-DSS) reflects a perspective that differs significantly from public perceptions in terms of the social values that influence rejection of a permit amendment application. By facilitating two-way communication about values assumptions P2P-DSS generates a novel dataset that can support pro-active conflict management and contribute to a shared understanding between government decision-makers and public citizens

The dark core and leaders : leaders self-reported personality and workplace behaviours

1 online resource (88 unnumbered pages) : chartsIncludes abstract and appendices.Includes bibliographical references (unnumbered pages 47-67).Using a recently developed measure of the Dark Core at Work (DCW) I had two objectives in my research. First, based on a sample of 302 leaders, I aimed to establish a relationship between leaders’ scores on the DCW scale and organizationally relevant outcomes (e.g., toxic leadership). Second, I assessed whether the DCW scale provided incremental prediction in organizationally relevant outcomes compared to an established measure of the Dark Tetrad at Work (DTW) and the H-H scale of the HEXACO. I found that the DCW was related to all organizational outcomes except for organizational citizenship. Further, the DCW accounted for incremental variance above and beyond the H-H subscale and the DTW scales for all outcomes except for organization oriented organizational citizenship behaviours. Establishing a context specific measure of the Dark Core provides researchers of workplace behaviour with a measure to assess the Dark Core at work

Effectiveness of Self-Reporting Systems in Enforcement of Environmental Regulations

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