How the split in Germany’s Eurosceptic AfD is likely to help Angela Merkel

The Eurosceptic Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) narrowly failed to cross Germany’s five per cent electoral threshold in the country’s 2013 federal elections, but managed to gain seven MEPs in the 2014 European Parliament elections. However, as Julian M Hoerner notes, this initial success has evaporated in recent months following a split within the party. He writes that the split represented a fundamental disagreement between the AfD’s economically liberal/Eurosceptic wing, and a more traditional far-right element focused on restricting immigration, with the latter group now likely to dominate the party under the leadership of Frauke Petry

Involvement of Europe’s national parliaments will further complicate the Brexit deal

While the power of national parliaments in the European Union has generally been increased over the last two decades, as means of democratising the EU, their involvement in the Brexit process will further complicate the negotiations and prove difficult for the the next British government to handle, writes Julian M Hoerner

Mediation and Peace

This paper applies mechanism design to conict resolution. We determine when and how unmediated communication and mediation reduce the ex ante probability of conflict in a game with asymmetric information. Mediation improves upon unmediated communication when the intensity of conict is high, or when asymmetric information is significant. The mediator improves upon unmediated communication by not precisely reporting information to conflicting parties, and precisely, by not revealing to a player with probability one that the opponent is weak. Arbitrators who can enforce settlements are no more effective than mediators who only make non-binding recommendations.

The Brexit talks have started, but have the French and British elections changed the tone?

Britain’s negotiations to leave the European Union formally began on 19 June, but it is still unclear what impact the unexpected result of the UK’s general election will have on the process. Julian M Hoerner indicates that from the EU’s perspective, little has changed following the election as the EU had already decided on its negotiating position in advance. However, he argues that the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French legislative elections could ultimately make concessions for the UK less likely

Resolutions of National Parliaments in EU affairs: The Crucial Role of Issue Entrepreneurs

This paper analyses the activity of national parliaments in EU affairs in the form of resolutions. Covering the time period from the late 1990s until the present, the paper examines parliamentary motions and resolutions on EU affairs in six West European countries: Austria, France, Germany, Ireland, Spain and the United Kingdom. Differences in the frequency of resolutions between countries as well as between party groups with regard to motions are examined. Moreover, all motions and resolutions were hand coded to establish the valence of the texts, i.e. the extent to which they are supportive or critical of the government. Formal scrutiny powers in EU affairs do not seem to have an impact on the frequency with which resolutions are issued. The activity of national parliaments in the form of resolutions is mostly driven by ‘issue entrepreneurs’, parties which are critical of the European Union and which see it as a salient issue. Motions initiated by issue entrepreneurs are very critical of the government’s policy and of the European Union. Moreover, Motions by issue entrepreneurs tend to have a longer preamble and a shorter operational part compared to motions by mainstream opposition and government parties. The reason for this is most likely that issue entrepreneurs use motions to express their opinion on the EU in general instead of formulating a targeted criticism of the government’s policy. The parliamentary activity brought about by issue entrepreneurs might thus not lead to an increase in actual democratic control and accountability in EU affairs

The rise of the AfD after Cologne poses a serious challenge for Merkel’s policy on refugees

Following events on New Year’s Eve, in which a number of women were sexually assaulted in several cities including Cologne, the issue of immigration has come to the fore of domestic politics in Germany. Julian M Hoerner writes that the Eurosceptic Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party has experienced an upturn in support since the incidents, with Angela Merkel also receiving criticism from some of her own political partners. He notes that with the next federal election still some time away, it remains to be seen whether domestic political pressure will force Merkel to shift her policy on refugees

Significant concessions to the UK in any Brexit deal are increasingly unlikely

Britain's negotiations to leave the European Union formally began on 19 June, but it is still unclear what impact the unexpected result of the UK's general election will have on the process. Julian M Hoerner indicates that from the EU's perspective, little has changed following the election as the EU had already decided on its negotiating position in advance. However, he argues that the victory of Emmanuel Macron in the French legislative elections could ultimately make concessions for the UK less likely

Closer cooperation between the AfD and the ‘Pegida’ movement could reshape the German right

A number of rallies calling for greater restrictions on immigration have been held in Germany by the ‘Pegida’ movement (Patriotic Europeans against the Islamisation of the West). Julian M Hoerner writes on the link between the movement and the anti-euro Alternative für Deutschland (AfD) party, led by Bernd Lucke. He argues that with the AfD appearing to be broadly supportive of Pegida, an alliance between the two groups could reshape the right of the German party system