Reasoning about extreme events: A review of behavioural biases in relation to catastrophe risks

The present report outlines behavioural biases studied in the literature in relation to the way people reason about and respond to catastrophe risks. The project is led by the Lighthill Risk Network, in collaboration with a team of social and behavioural researchers from the University of Kent. The aim of this report is to increase awareness of selected behavioural risks, and to highlight ways how biases can affect insurance purchases and underwriting decisions. The report focuses on catastrophe risk as a priority area for the insurance industry, and because catastrophe risks have been more widely studied in the literature than other types of risk

Drinking in social groups. Does 'groupdrink' provide safety in numbers when deciding about risk?

AimsTo investigate the impact of alcohol consumption on risk decisions taken both individually and while part of a four- to six-person ad-hoc group.DesignA 2 (alcohol: consuming versus not consuming alcohol) x 2 (decision: individual, group) mixed-model design; decision was a repeated measure. The dependent variable was risk preference, measured using choice dilemmas.SettingOpportunity sampling in campus bars and a music event at a campus-based university in the United Kingdom.ParticipantsA total of 101 individuals were recruited from groups of four to six people who either were or were not consuming alcohol.MeasurementsParticipants privately opted for a level of risk in response to a choice dilemma and then, as a group, responded to a second choice dilemma. The choice dilemmas asked participants the level of accident risk at which they would recommend someone could drive while intoxicated.FindingsFive three-level multi-level models were specified in the software program HLM 7. Decisions made in groups were less risky than those made individually (B = -0.73, P < 0.001). Individual alcohol consumers opted for higher risk than non-consumers (B = 1.27, P = 0.025). A significant alcohol?×?decision interaction (B = -2.79, P = 0.001) showed that individual consumers privately opted for higher risk than non-consumers, whereas risk judgements made in groups of either consumers or non-consumers were lower. Decisions made by groups of consumers were less risky than those made by groups of non-consumers (B = 1.23, P < 0.001).ConclusionsModerate alcohol consumption appears to produce a propensity among individuals towards increased risk-taking in deciding to drive while intoxicated, which can be mitigated by group monitoring processes within small (four- to six-person) groups

A Moment of Mindfulness: Computer-Mediated Mindfulness Practice Increases State Mindfulness

Three studies investigated the use of a 5-minute, computer-mediated mindfulness practice in increasing levels of state mindfulness. In Study 1, 54 high school students completed the computer-mediated mindfulness practice in a lab setting and Toronto Mindfulness Scale (TMS) scores were measured before and after the practice. In Study 2 (N = 90) and Study 3 (N = 61), the mindfulness practice was tested with an entirely online sample to test the delivery of the 5-minute mindfulness practice via the internet. In Study 2 and 3, we found a significant increase in TMS scores in the mindful condition, but not in the control condition. These findings highlight the impact of a brief, mindfulness practice for single-session, computer-mediated use to increase mindfulness as a state

The role of positive and negative gossip in promoting prosocial behavior

Gossip can promote cooperation via reputational concern. However, the relative effectiveness of positive and negative gossip in fostering prosociality has not been examined. The present study explored the influence of positive and negative gossip on prosocial behavior, using an economic game. Supporting previous evidence, it was found that individuals were more prosocial when gossip of any kind was possible, compared to when their behavior was completely anonymous. However, there was no significant difference in the efficiency in promoting cooperation between positive and negative gossip, suggesting that it is reputational concern elicited by gossip per se, rather than its valence, that stimulates prosociality

Surveillance or self-surveillance? Behavioral cues can increase the rate of drivers' pro-environmental behavior at a long wait stop

By leaving their engines idling for long periods, drivers contribute unnecessarily to air pollution, waste fuel, and produce noise and fumes that harm the environment. Railway level crossings are sites where many cars idle, many times a day. In this research, testing two psychological theories of influence, we examine the potential to encourage drivers to switch off their ignition while waiting at rail crossings. Two field studies presented different signs at a busy rail crossing site with a 2-min average wait. Inducing public self-focus (via a “Watching Eyes” stimulus) was not effective, even when accompanied by a written behavioral instruction. Instead, cueing a private-self focus (“think of yourself”) was more effective, doubling the level of behavioral compliance. These findings confirm the need to engage the self when trying to instigate self-regulatory action, but that cues evoking self-surveillance may sometimes be more effective than cues that imply external surveillance

Mental Simulation and The Individual Preference Effect

Purpose - The “Individual Preference Effect” (IPE: Faulmüller et al., 2010; Greitemeyer & Schulz-Hardt, 2003; Greitemeyer et al., 2003), a form of confirmation bias, is an important barrier to achieving improved group decision-making outcomes in Hidden Profile tasks. Group members remain committed to their individual preferences and are unable to disconfirm their initial suboptimal selection decisions, even when presented with full information enabling them to correct them, and even if the accompanying group processes are perfectly conducted. This paper examines whether a mental simulation can overcome the IPE. Design/Methodology/Approach – Two experimental studies examine the effect of a mental simulation intervention in attenuating the IPE and improving decision quality in an online individual Hidden Profile task. Findings – Individuals undertaking a mental simulation achieved higher decision quality than those in a Control condition and experienced a greater reduction in confidence in the Suboptimal solution. Originality – To the authors’ knowledge, no study has examined whether mental simulation can attenuate the IPE. Research limitations/implications – Results suggest a role for mental simulation in overcoming the IPE. The test environment is an online individual decision-making task and broader application to group decision-making is not tested. Practical Implications – Since mental simulation is something we all do, it should easily generalise to an organisational setting to improve decision outcomes

Cooperation and crossed categorization in a minimal group context: testing the bounded generalized reciprocity and social identity accounts

Individuals display the tendency to cooperate more with in-group members than they do with out-group members (i.e. in-group favoritism) across diverse contexts. While previous studies have thoroughly investigated in-group favoritism when a single social category is salient, they have understudied how individuals cooperate with others when multiple social categories are simultaneously salient. To bridge this gap, we conducted a study to examine cooperation under crossed categorization, in which two dichotomous social categories are orthogonally crossed. We then examined the psychological mechanisms potentially underlying intergroup cooperation, including reputational concern, expected cooperation, and social identification, drawn from the theoretical perspectives of bounded generalized reciprocity and social identity theory. Overall, we found that two in-group memberships additively increased cooperation. That is, cooperation with a double in-group member (a person with two in-group memberships) was higher than that with a partial in-group member (i.e. a person with one in-group membership and one out-group membership). We also found that cooperation with a partial in-group member was larger than that with a double out-group member (a person with two out-group memberships). In addition, we found some evidence that expected cooperation partially mediated the relationship between in-group membership and cooperation

Intergroup Contact, Social Dominance and Environmental Concern: A Test of the Cognitive-Liberalization Hypothesis

Intergroup contact is among the most effective ways to improve intergroup attitudes. While it is now beyond any doubt that contact can reduce prejudice, in this paper we provide evidence that its benefits can extend beyond intergroup relations – a process referred to as cognitive liberalization (Hodson, Crisp, Meleady & Earle, 2018). We focus specifically on the impact of intergroup contact on environmentally-relevant attitudes and behavior. Recent studies suggest that support for an inequality-based ideology (Social Dominance Orientation) can predict both intergroup attitudes and broader environmental conduct. Individuals higher in SDO are more willing to exploit the environment in unsustainable ways because doing so aids the production and maintenance of hierarchical social structures. In four studies conducted with British adults we show that by promoting less hierarchical and more egalitarian viewpoints (reduced SDO), intergroup contact encourages more environmentally responsible attitudes and behavior. Both cross-sectional and longitudinal data support this model. Effects are more strongly explained by reductions in an anti-egalitarian motive (SDO-E) than a dominance motive (SDO-D). We discuss how these findings help define an expanded vision for intergroup contact theory that moves beyond traditional conflict-related outcomes

Motivating the selfish to stop idling: Self-interest cues can improve environmentally relevant driver behaviour

Air pollution has a huge and negative impact on society, and idling engines are a major contributor to air pollution. The current paper draws on evolutionary models of environmental behaviour to test whether appeals to self-interest can encourage drivers to turn off their engines at long wait stops. Using an experimental design, drivers were shown one of three self-interest appeals (financial, health, kin) while waiting at a congested level-crossing site in the UK. Results showed that all three self-interest appeals increased the chances of drivers turning off their engines compared to the control condition. Specifically, drivers were approximately twice as likely to turn off their engines in the self-interest conditions (39–41% compliance) compared to drivers in the control condition (22% compliance). Thus, self-interest motives can be effective for promoting pro-environmental behavioural compliance. Theoretical and applied implications of this research are discussed