Simulations of the Population of Centaurs II: Individual Objects

Detailed orbit integrations of clones of five Centaurs -- namely, 1996 AR20, 2060 Chiron, 1995 SN55, 2000 FZ53 and 2002 FY36 -- for durations of 3 Myr are presented. One of our Centaur sample starts with perihelion initially under the control of Jupiter (1996 AR20), two start under the control of Saturn (Chiron and 1995 SN55) and one each starts under the control of Uranus (2000 FZ53) and Neptune (2002 FY36) respectively. A variety of interesting pathways are illustrated with detailed examples including: capture into the Jovian Trojans, repeated bursts of short-period comet behaviour, capture into mean-motion resonances with the giant planets and into Kozai resonances, as well as traversals of the entire Solar system. For each of the Centaurs, we provide statistics on the numbers (i) ejected, (ii) showing short-period comet behaviour and (iii) becoming Earth and Mars crossing. For example, Chiron has over 60 % of its clones becoming short-period objects, whilst 1995 SN55 has over 35 %. Clones of these two Centaurs typically make numerous close approaches to Jupiter. At the other extreme, 2000 FZ53 has roughly 2 % of its clones becoming short-period objects. In our simulations, typically 20 % of the clones which become short-period comets subsequently evolve into Earth-crossers.Comment: 10 pages, in press at MNRA

The Populations of Comet-Like Bodies in the Solar system

A new classification scheme is introduced for comet-like bodies in the Solar system. It covers the traditional comets as well as the Centaurs and Edgeworth-Kuiper belt objects. At low inclinations, close encounters with planets often result in near-constant perihelion or aphelion distances, or in perihelion-aphelion interchanges, so the minor bodies can be labelled according to the planets predominantly controlling them at perihelion and aphelion. For example, a JN object has a perihelion under the control of Jupiter and aphelion under the control of Neptune, and so on. This provides 20 dynamically distinct categories of outer Solar system objects in the Jovian and trans-Jovian regions. The Tisserand parameter with respect to the planet controlling perihelion is also often roughly constant under orbital evolution. So, each category can be further sub-divided according to the Tisserand parameter. The dynamical evolution of comets, however, is dominated not by the planets nearest at perihelion or aphelion, but by the more massive Jupiter. The comets are separated into four categories -- Encke-type, short-period, intermediate and long-period -- according to aphelion distance. The Tisserand parameter categories now roughly correspond to the well-known Jupiter-family comets, transition-types and Halley-types. In this way, the nomenclature for the Centaurs and Edgeworth-Kuiper belt objects is based on, and consistent with, that for comets.Comment: MNRAS, in press, 11 pages, 6 figures (1 available as postscript, 5 as gif). Higher resolution figures available at http://www-thphys.physics.ox.ac.uk/users/WynEvans/preprints.pd

Discovery of a very X-ray luminous galaxy cluster at z=0.89 in the WARPS survey

We report the discovery of the galaxy cluster ClJ1226.9+3332 in the Wide Angle ROSAT Pointed Survey (WARPS). At z=0.888 and L_X=1.1e45 erg/s (0.5-2.0 keV, h_0=0.5) ClJ1226.9+3332 is the most distant X-ray luminous cluster currently known. The mere existence of this system represents a huge problem for Omega_0=1 world models. At the modest (off-axis) resolution of the ROSAT PSPC observation in which the system was detected, ClJ1226.9+3332 appears relaxed; an off-axis HRI observation confirms this impression and rules out significant contamination from point sources. However, in moderately deep optical images (R and I band) the cluster exhibits signs of substructure in its apparent galaxy distribution. A first crude estimate of the velocity dispersion of the cluster galaxies based on six redshifts yields a high value of 1650 km/s, indicative of a very massive cluster and/or the presence of substructure along the line of sight. While a more accurate assessment of the dynamical state of this system requires much better data at both optical and X-ray wavelengths, the high mass of the cluster has already been unambiguously confirmed by a very strong detection of the Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effect in its direction (Joy et al. 2001). Using ClJ1226.9+3332 and ClJ0152.7-1357 (z=0.835), the second-most distant X-ray luminous cluster currently known and also a WARPS discovery, we obtain a first estimate of the cluster X-ray luminosity function at 0.8<z<1.4 and L_X>5e44 erg/s. Using the best currently available data, we find the comoving space density of very distant, massive clusters to be in excellent agreement with the value measured locally (z<0.3), and conclude that negative evolution is not required at these luminosities out to z~1. (truncated)Comment: accepted for publication in ApJ Letters, 6 pages, 2 figures, uses emulateapj.st

Absorbing systematic effects to obtain a better background model in a search for new physics

This paper presents a novel approach to estimate the Standard Model backgrounds based on modifying Monte Carlo predictions within their systematic uncertainties. The improved background model is obtained by altering the original predictions with successively more complex correction functions in signal-free control selections. Statistical tests indicate when sufficient compatibility with data is reached. In this way, systematic effects are absorbed into the new background model. The same correction is then applied on the Monte Carlo prediction in the signal region. Comparing this method to other background estimation techniques shows improvements with respect to statistical and systematical uncertainties. The proposed method can also be applied in other fields beyond high energy physics

The WARPS survey - IV: The X-ray luminosity-temperature relation of high redshift galaxy clusters

We present a measurement of the cluster X-ray luminosity-temperature relation out to high redshift (z~0.8). Combined ROSAT PSPC spectra of 91 galaxy clusters detected in the Wide Angle ROSAT Pointed Survey (WARPS) are simultaneously fit in redshift and luminosity bins. The resulting temperature and luminosity measurements of these bins, which occupy a region of the high redshift L-T relation not previously sampled, are compared to existing measurements at low redshift in order to constrain the evolution of the L-T relation. We find a best fit to low redshift (z1 keV, to be L proportional to T^(3.15\pm0.06). Our data are consistent with no evolution in the normalisation of the L-T relation up to z~0.8. Combining our results with ASCA measurements taken from the literature, we find eta=0.19\pm0.38 (for Omega_0=1, with 1 sigma errors) where L_Bol is proportional to (1 + z)^eta T^3.15, or eta=0.60\pm0.38 for Omega_0=0.3. This lack of evolution is considered in terms of the entropy-driven evolution of clusters. Further implications for cosmological constraints are also discussed.Comment: 11 pages, 7 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA

Simulations of the Population of Centaurs I: The Bulk Statistics

Large-scale simulations of the Centaur population are carried out. The evolution of 23328 particles based on the orbits of 32 well-known Centaurs is followed for up to 3 Myr in the forward and backward direction under the influence of the 4 massive planets. The objects exhibit a rich variety of dynamical behaviour with half-lives ranging from 540 kyr (1996 AR20) to 32 Myr (2000 FZ53). The mean half-life of the entire sample of Centaurs is 2.7 Myr. The data are analyzed using a classification scheme based on the controlling planets at perihelion and aphelion, previously given in Horner et al (2003). Transfer probabilities are computed and show the main dynamical pathways of the Centaur population. The total number of Centaurs with diameters larger than 1 km is estimated as roughly 44300, assuming an inward flux of one new short-period comet every 200 yrs. The flux into the Centaur region from the Edgeworth-Kuiper belt is estimated to be 1 new object every 125 yrs. Finally, the flux from the Centaur region to Earth-crossing orbits is 1 new Earth-crosser every 880 yrsComment: 15 pages, 2 figures, MNRAS in pres

Simulations of the population of Centaurs - I. The bulk statistics

Large-scale simulations of the Centaur population are carried out. The evolution of 23328 particles based on the orbits of 32 well-known Centaurs is followed for up to 3 Myr in the forward and backward direction under the influence of the four massive planets. The objects exhibit a rich variety of dynamical behaviour with half-lives ranging from 540 kyr (1996AR20) to 32 Myr (2000FZ53). The mean half-life of the entire sample of Centaurs is 2.7 Myr. The data are analysed using a classification scheme based on the controlling planets at perihelion and aphelion, previously given in Horner et al. Transfer probabilities are computed and show the main dynamical pathways of the Centaur population. The total number of Centaurs with diameters larger than 1 km is estimated as ∼44300, assuming an inward flux of one new short-period comet every 200 yr. The flux into the Centaur region from the Edgeworth-Kuiper Belt is estimated to be one new object every 125 yr. Finally, the flux from the Centaur region to Earth-crossing orbits is one new Earth-crosser every 880 y

The WARPS Survey. VIII. Evolution of the Galaxy Cluster X-ray Luminosity Function

We present measurements of the galaxy cluster X-ray Luminosity Function (XLF) from the Wide Angle ROSAT Pointed Survey (WARPS) and quantify its evolution. WARPS is a serendipitous survey of the central region of ROSAT pointed observations and was carried out in two phases (WARPS-I and WARPS-II). The results here are based on a final sample of 124 clusters, complete above a flux limit of 6.5 10E-15 erg/s/cm2, with members out to redshift z ~ 1.05, and a sky coverage of 70.9 deg2. We find significant evidence for negative evolution of the XLF, which complements the majority of X-ray cluster surveys. To quantify the suggested evolution, we perform a maximum likelihood analysis and conclude that the evolution is driven by a decreasing number density of high luminosity clusters with redshift, while the bulk of the cluster population remains nearly unchanged out to redshift z ~ 1.1, as expected in a low density Universe. The results are found to be insensitive to a variety of sources of systematic uncertainty that affect the measurement of the XLF and determination of the survey selection function. We perform a Bayesian analysis of the XLF to fully account for uncertainties in the local XLF on the measured evolution, and find that the detected evolution remains significant at the 95% level. We observe a significant excess of clusters in the WARPS at 0.1 < z < 0.3 and LX ~ 2 10E42 erg/s compared with the reference low-redshift XLF, or our Bayesian fit to the WARPS data. We find that the excess cannot be explained by sample variance, or Eddington bias, and is unlikely to be due to problems with the survey selection function.Comment: 13 pages, 12 figures, accepted for publication in MNRA