Full Wave Form Inversion for Seismic Data

In seismic wave inversion, seismic waves are sent into the ground and then observed at many receiving points with the aim of producing high-resolution images of the geological underground details. The challenge presented by Saudi Aramco is to solve the inverse problem for multiple point sources on the full elastic wave equation, taking into account all frequencies for the best resolution. The state-of-the-art methods use optimisation to find the seismic properties of the rocks, such that when used as the coefficients of the equations of a model, the measurements are reproduced as closely as possible. This process requires regularisation if one is to avoid instability. The approach can produce a realistic image but does not account for uncertainty arising, in general, from the existence of many different patterns of properties that also reproduce the measurements. In the Study Group a formulation of the problem was developed, based upon the principles of Bayesian statistics. First the state-of-the-art optimisation method was shown to be a special case of the Bayesian formulation. This result immediately provides insight into the most appropriate regularisation methods. Then a practical implementation of a sequential sampling algorithm, using forms of the Ensemble Kalman Filter, was devised and explored

Comparison of extended and ensemble based Kalman filters with low and high resolution primitive equation ocean models

International audienceKalman filters are widely used for data assimilation into ocean models. The aim of this study is to discuss the relevance of these filters with high resolution ocean models. This was investigated through the comparison of two advanced Kalman filters: the singular evolutive extended Kalman (SEEK) filter and its ensemble-based variant, called SEIK filter. The two filters were implemented with the Princeton Ocean model (POM) considering a low spatial resolution configuration (Mediterranean sea model) and a very high one (Pagasitikos Gulf coastal model). It is shown that the two filters perform reasonably well when applied with the low resolution model. However, when the high resolution model is considered, the behavior of the SEEK filter seriously degrades because of strong model nonlinearities while the SEIK filter remains remarkably more stable. Based on the assumption of prior Gaussian distributions, the linear analysis step of the latter can still be improved though

Assimilation of ocean colour data into a Biogeochemical Flux Model of the Eastern Mediterranean Sea

International audienceAn advanced multivariate sequential data assimilation system has been implemented within the framework of the European MFSTEP project to fit a three-dimensional biogeochemical model of the Eastern Mediterranean to satellite chlorophyll data from the Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor (SeaWiFS). The physics are described by the Princeton Ocean Model (POM) while the biochemistry of the ecosystem is tackled with the Biogeochemical Flux Model (BFM). The assimilation scheme is based on the Singular Evolutive Extended Kalman (SEEK) filter, in which the error statistics were parameterized by means of a suitable set of Empirical Orthogonal Functions (EOFs). To avoid spurious long-range correlations associated with the limited number of EOFs, the filter covariance matrix was given compact support through a radius of influence around every data point location. Hindcast experiments were performed for one year over 1999 and forced with ECMWF 6 h atmospheric fields. The solution of the assimilation system was evaluated against the assimilated data and the MedAtlas climatology, and by assessing the impact of the assimilation on non-observed biogeochemical processes. It is found that the assimilation of SeaWiFS data improves the overall behavior of the BFM model and efficiently removes long term biases from the model despite some difficulties during the spring bloom period. Results, however, suggest the need of subsurface data to enhance the estimation of the ecosystem variables in the deep layers

Impacts of warming on phytoplankton abundance and phenology in a typical tropical marine ecosystem

In the tropics, thermal stratification (during warm conditions) may contribute to a shallowing of the mixed layer above the nutricline and a reduction in the transfer of nutrients to the surface lit-layer, ultimately limiting phytoplankton growth. Using remotely sensed observations and modelled datasets, we study such linkages in the northern Red Sea (NRS) - a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We assess the interannual variability (1998–2015) of both phytoplankton biomass and phenological indices (timing of bloom initiation, duration and termination) in relation to regional warming. We demonstrate that warmer conditions in the NRS are associated with substantially weaker winter phytoplankton blooms, which initiate later, terminate earlier and are shorter in their overall duration (~ 4 weeks). These alterations are directly linked with the strength of atmospheric forcing (air-sea heat fluxes) and vertical stratification (mixed layer depth [MLD]). The interannual variability of sea surface temperature (SST) is found to be a good indicator of phytoplankton abundance, but appears to be less important for predicting bloom timing. These findings suggest that future climate warming scenarios may have a two-fold impact on phytoplankton growth in tropical marine ecosystems: 1) a reduction in phytoplankton abundance and 2) alterations in the timing of seasonal phytoplankton blooms

Eastern Mediterranean biogeochemical flux model: simulations of the pelagic ecosystem

International audienceDuring the second phase (2003?2006) of the Mediterranean ocean Forecasting System Project (MFS) named Toward Environmental Predictions (MFSTEP) one of the three major aims was the development of numerical forecasting systems. In this context a generic Biochemical Flux Model (BFM) was developed and coupled with hydrodynamic models already operating at basin scale as well as at regional areas. In the Eastern Mediterranean basin the BFM was coupled with the Aegean Levantine Eddy Resolving MOdel (ALERMO). The BFM is a generic highly complex model based on ERSEM and although a detailed description of the model and its sub models is beyond the scope of this work a short presentation of the main processes, paying emphasis on the parameter values used is presented. Additionally the performance of the model is evaluated with some preliminary results being qualitatively compared against field observations. The model at its present form is rather promising reproducing all major important features even though there are inefficiencies mostly related to primary and bacterial productivity rates

Robust wetting and drying with discontinuous Galerkin flood model on unstructured triangular meshes

Godunov-based finite volume (FV) methods are widely employed to numerically solve the Shallow-Water Equations (SWEs) with application to simulate flood inundation over irregular geometries and real-field, where unstructured triangular meshing is favored. Second-order extensions have been devised, mostly on the MUSCL reconstruction and the discontinuous Galerkin (DG) approaches. In this paper, we introduce a novel second-order Runge–Kutta discontinuous Galerkin (RKDG) solver for flood modeling, specifically addressing positivity preservation and wetting and drying on unstructured triangular meshes. To enhance the RKDG model, we adapt and refine positivity-preserving and wetting and drying techniques originally developed for the MUSCL-based finite volume (FV) scheme, ensuring its effective integration within the RKDG framework. Two analytical test problems are considered first to validate the proposed model and assess its performance in comparison with the MUSCL formulation. The performance of the model is further explored in real flooding scenarios involving irregular topographies. Our findings indicate that the added complexity of the RKDG model is justified, as it delivers higher-quality results even on very coarse meshes. This reveals that there is a promise in deploying RKDG-based flood models in real-scale applications, in particular when field data are sparse or of limited resolution

Evaluating tropical phytoplankton phenology metrics using contemporary tools

The timing of phytoplankton growth (phenology) in tropical oceans is a crucial factor influencing the survival rates of higher trophic levels, food web structure and the functioning of coral reef ecosystems. Phytoplankton phenology is thus categorised as an ‘ecosystem indicator’, which can be utilised to assess ecosystem health in response to environmental and climatic perturbations. Ocean-colour remote sensing is currently the only technique providing global, long-term, synoptic estimates of phenology. However, due to limited available in situ datasets, studies dedicated to the validation of satellite-derived phenology metrics are sparse. The recent development of autonomous oceanographic observation platforms provides an opportunity to bridge this gap. Here, we use satellite-derived surface chlorophyll-a (Chl-a) observations, in conjunction with a Biogeochemical-Argo dataset, to assess the capability of remote sensing to estimate phytoplankton phenology metrics in the northern Red Sea – a typical tropical marine ecosystem. We find that phenology metrics derived from both contemporary platforms match with a high degree of precision (within the same 5-day period). The remotely-sensed surface signatures reflect the overall water column dynamics and successfully capture Chl-a variability related to convective mixing. Our findings offer important insights into the capability of remote sensing for monitoring food availability in tropical marine ecosystems, and support the use of satellite-derived phenology as an ecosystem indicator for marine management strategies in regions with limited data availability

Assessment of Red Sea temperatures in CMIP5 models for present and future climate

The increase of the temperature in the Red Sea basin due to global warming could have a large negative effect on its marine ecosystem. Consequently, there is a growing interest, from the scientific community and public organizations, in obtaining reliable projections of the Red Sea temperatures throughout the 21st century. However, the main tool used to do climate projections, the global climate models (GCM), may not be well suited for that relatively small region. In this work we assess the skills of the CMIP5 ensemble of GCMs in reproducing different aspects of the Red Sea 3D temperature variability. The results suggest that some of the GCMs are able to reproduce the present variability at large spatial scales with accuracy comparable to medium and high-resolution hindcasts. In general, the skills of the GCMs are better inside the Red Sea than outside, in the Gulf of Aden. Based on their performance, 8 of the original ensemble of 43 GCMs have been selected to project the temperature evolution of the basin. Bearing in mind the GCM limitations, this can be an useful benchmark once the high resolution projections are available. Those models project an averaged warming at the end of the century (2080–2100) of 3.3 ±> 0.6°C and 1.6 ±> 0.4°C at the surface under the scenarios RCP8.5 and RCP4.5, respectively. In the deeper layers the warming is projected to be smaller, reaching 2.2 ±> 0.5°C and 1.5 ±> 0.3°C at 300 m. The projected warming will largely overcome the natural multidecadal variability, which could induce temporary and moderate decrease of the temperatures but not enough to fully counteract it. We have also estimated how the rise of the mean temperature could modify the characteristics of the marine heatwaves in the region. The results show that the average length of the heatwaves would increase ~15 times and the intensity of the heatwaves ~4 times with respect to the present conditions under the scenario RCP8.5 (10 time and 3.6 times, respectively, under scenario RCP4.5).En prensa4,41