The end of the beginning? Taking forward local democratic renewal in the post-referendum North East.

This article draws upon the author’s commissioned research on the nature of regional governance following the 2004 Referendum in the North East on elected regional assemblies. The article aimed to both capture these views and to assess how the ‘No vote in the referendum has impacted on subsequent developments in sub-national governance. The article provides both an empirical overview of recent developments and engages with the wider conceptual debates on democratic renewal. The arguments covered in this output are aimed at both academic and practitioner audiences, and have been also disseminated at regional and national conferences

Self-reported knowledge, correct knowledge and use of UK drinking guidelines among a representative sample of the English population

Aims: Promotion of lower risk drinking guidelines is a commonly used public health intervention with various purposes, including communicating alcohol consumption risks, informing drinkers' decision-making and, potentially, changing behaviour. UK drinking guidelines were revised in 2016. To inform potential promotion of the new guidelines, we aimed to examine public knowledge and use of the previous drinking guidelines, including by population subgroup. Methods: A demographically representative, cross-sectional online survey of 2100 adults living in England in July 2015 (i.e. two decades after adoption of previous guidelines and prior to introduction of new guidelines). Univariate and multivariate logistic regressions examined associations between demographic variables, alcohol consumption (AUDIT-C), smoking, and knowledge of health conditions and self-reported knowledge and use of drinking guidelines. Multinomial logistic regression examined the same set of variables in relation to accurate knowledge of drinking guidelines (underestimation, accurate-estimation, overestimation). Results: In total, 37.8% of drinkers self-reported knowing their own-gender drinking guideline, of whom 66.2% gave an accurate estimate. Compared to accurate estimation, underestimation was associated with male gender, lower education and AUDIT-C score, while overestimation was associated with smoking. Few (20.8%) reported using guidelines to monitor drinking at least sometimes. Drinking guideline use was associated with higher education, overestimating guidelines and lower AUDIT-C. Correctly endorsing a greater number of health conditions as alcohol-related was associated with self-reported knowledge of guidelines, but was not consistently associated with accurate estimation or use to monitor drinking. Conclusions: Two decades after their introduction, previous UK drinking guidelines were not well known or used by current drinkers. Those who reported using them tended to overestimate recommended daily limits. SHORT SUMMARY: We examined public knowledge and use of UK drinking guidelines just before new guidelines were released (2016). Despite previous guidelines being in place for two decades, only one in four drinkers accurately estimated these, with even fewer using guidelines to monitor drinking. Approximately 8% of drinkers overestimated maximum daily limits

Policy mixes for incumbency: the destructive recreation of renewable energy, shale gas 'fracking,' and nuclear power in the United Kingdom

The notion of a ‘policy mix’ can describe interactions across a wide range of innovation policies, including ‘motors for creation’ as well as for ‘destruction’. This paper focuses on the United Kingdom’s (UK) ‘new policy direction’ that has weakened support for renewables and energy efficiency schemes while strengthening promotion of nuclear power and hydraulic fracturing for natural gas (‘fracking’). The paper argues that a ‘policy apparatus for incumbency’ is emerging which strengthens key regimebased technologies while arguably damaging emerging niche innovations. Basing the discussion around the three technology-based cases of renewable energy and efficiency, fracking, and nuclear power, this paper refers to this process as “destructive recreation”. Our study raises questions over the extent to which policymaking in the energy field is not so much driven by stated aims around sustainability transitions, as by other policy drivers. It investigates different ‘strategies of incumbency’ including ‘securitization’, ‘masking’, ‘reinvention’, and ‘capture.’ It suggests that analytical frameworks should extend beyond the particular sectors in focus, with notions of what counts as a relevant ‘policy maker’ correspondingly also expanded, in order to explore a wider range of nodes and critical junctures as entry points for understanding how relations of incumbency are forged and reproduced

Towards reducing variations in infant mortality and morbidity : a population-based approach

Background: Our aims were (1) to improve understanding of regional variation in early-life mortality rates and the UK’s poor performance in international comparisons; and (2) to identify the extent to which late and moderately preterm (LMPT) birth contributes to early childhood mortality and morbidity. Objective: To undertake a programme of linked population-based research studies to work towards reducing variations in infant mortality and morbidity rates. Design: Two interlinked streams: (1) a detailed analysis of national and regional data sets and (2) establishment of cohorts of LMPT babies and term-born control babies. Setting: Cohorts were drawn from the geographically defined areas of Leicestershire and Nottinghamshire, and analyses were carried out at the University of Leicester. Data sources: For stream 1, national data were obtained from four sources: the Office for National Statistics, NHS Numbers for Babies, Centre for Maternal and Child Enquiries and East Midlands and South Yorkshire Congenital Anomalies Register. For stream 2, prospective data were collected for 1130 LMPT babies and 1255 term-born control babies. Main outcome measures: Detailed analysis of stillbirth and early childhood mortality rates with a particular focus on factors leading to biased or unfair comparison; review of clinical, health economic and developmental outcomes over the first 2 years of life for LMPT and term-born babies. Results: The deprivation gap in neonatal mortality has widened over time, despite government efforts to reduce it. Stillbirth rates are twice as high in the most deprived as in the least deprived decile. Approximately 70% of all infant deaths are the result of either preterm birth or a major congenital abnormality, and these are heavily influenced by mothers’ exposure to deprivation. Births at < 24 weeks’ gestation constitute only 1% of all births, but account for 20% of infant mortality. Classification of birth status for these babies varies widely across England. Risk of LMPT birth is greatest in the most deprived groups within society. Compared with term-born peers, LMPT babies are at an increased risk of neonatal morbidity, neonatal unit admission and poorer long-term health and developmental outcomes. Cognitive and socioemotional development problems confer the greatest long-term burden, with the risk being amplified by socioeconomic factors. During the first 24 months of life each child born LMPT generates approximately £3500 of additional health and societal costs. Conclusions: Health professionals should be cautious in reviewing unadjusted early-life mortality rates, particularly when these relate to individual trusts. When more sophisticated analysis is not possible, babies of < 24 weeks’ gestation should be excluded. Neonatal services should review the care they offer to babies born LMPT to ensure that it is appropriate to their needs. The risk of adverse outcome is low in LMPT children. However, the risk appears higher for some types of antenatal problems and when the mother is from a deprived background

Health Equity Indicators for the English NHS: a longitudinal whole-population study at the small-area level

Background: Inequalities in health-care access and outcomes raise concerns about quality of care and justice, and the NHS has a statutory duty to consider reducing them. Objectives: The objectives were to (1) develop indicators of socioeconomic inequality in health-care access and outcomes at different stages of the patient pathway; (2) develop methods for monitoring local NHS equity performance in tackling socioeconomic health-care inequalities; (3) track the evolution of socioeconomic health-care inequalities in the 2000s; and (4) develop ‘equity dashboards’ for communicating equity findings to decision-makers in a clear and concise format. Design: Longitudinal whole-population study at the small-area level. Setting: England from 2001/2 to 2011/12. Participants: A total of 32,482 small-area neighbourhoods (lower-layer super output areas) of approximately 1500 people. Main outcome measures: Slope index of inequality gaps between the most and least deprived neighbourhoods in England, adjusted for need or risk, for (1) patients per family doctor, (2) primary care quality, (3) inpatient hospital waiting time, (4) emergency hospitalisation for chronic ambulatory care-sensitive conditions, (5) repeat emergency hospitalisation in the same year, (6) dying in hospital, (7) mortality amenable to health care and (8) overall mortality. Data sources: Practice-level workforce data from the general practice census (indicator 1), practice-level Quality and Outcomes Framework data (indicator 2), inpatient hospital data from Hospital Episode Statistics (indicators 3–6) and mortality data from the Office for National Statistics (indicators 6–8). Results: Between 2004/5 and 2011/12, more deprived neighbourhoods gained larger absolute improvements on all indicators except waiting time, repeat hospitalisation and dying in hospital. In 2011/12, there was little measurable inequality in primary care supply and quality, but inequality was associated with 171,119 preventable hospitalisations and 41,123 deaths amenable to health care. In 2011/12, > 20% of Clinical Commissioning Groups performed statistically significantly better or worse than the England equity benchmark. Limitations: General practitioner supply is a limited measure of primary care access, need in deprived neighbourhoods may be underestimated because of a lack of data on multimorbidity, and the quality and outcomes indicators capture only one aspect of primary care quality. Health-care outcomes are adjusted for age and sex but not for other risk factors that contribute to unequal health-care outcomes and may be outside the control of the NHS, so they overestimate the extent of inequality for which the NHS can reasonably be held responsible. Conclusions: NHS actions can have a measurable impact on socioeconomic inequality in both health-care access and outcomes. Reducing inequality in health-care outcomes is more challenging than reducing inequality of access to health care. Local health-care equity monitoring against a national benchmark can be performed using any administrative geography comprising ≥ 100,000 people

The Local Economic Impact of Shale Gas Extraction

Advocates of UK shale gas expansion have focused upon predicted national economic benefits, but local and/or regional impact has been largely neglected. This paper seeks to address this deficit by creating a unique dataset, combining industry data with consumer and supply chain surveys, thereby overcoming the current absence of suitable secondary data. Local economic impact in the Bowland field is estimated via a simple Keynesian local income multiplier model. Results emphasize the importance of facilitating local employment opportunities, through skills initiatives, and development of regional supply chain clusters, to anchor economic benefits within the local economy. Policy implications are discussed

Reaching in? The potential for E-petitions in local government in the United Kingdom

This article considers the extent to which petitions and e-petitions might allow citizens to ‘reach in’ to local authorities in the United Kingdom. It examines how e-petitions sit against wider debates about the use of technology and digital democracy and the extent to which petitions systems might align with traditional approaches to representative democracy. It highlights that, as with many other participative initiatives, digital or otherwise, there are a variety of issues and risks associated with e-petitions, including those associated with broad socio-economic factors, and others that are more specifically related to the use of e-petitions. However, drawing on existing examples of e-petitions systems in the UK, it suggests that, designed well, they may have potential value, not simply in terms of enabling ‘voice’ and participation, but also in helping educate and inform petitioners about local democracy and decision-making