Lucky Achievement: Virtue Epistemology on the Value of Knowledge

Virtue epistemology argues that knowledge is more valuable than Gettierized belief because knowledge is an achievement, but Gettierized belief is not. The key premise in the achievement argument is that achievement is apt (successful because competent) and Gettierized belief is inapt (successful because lucky). I first argue that the intuition behind the achievement argument is based wrongly on the fact that ‘being successful because lucky’ implicates ‘being not competent enough’. I then offer an argument from moral luck to argue that virtue epistemologists should maintain that knowledge is no more valuable than Gettierized belief

Does More Government Deficit Lead to a Higher Long-term Interest Rate? Application of an Extended Loanable Funds Model to Estonia

Applying and extending the open-economy loanable funds model, this article shows that more government borrowing or debt as a percent of GDP leads to a higher government bond yield, that a higher real money market rate, a higher expected inflation rate, a higher EU government bond yield, or depreciation of the Estonian kroon (EEK) would increase the Estonian government bond yield, and that the negative coefficient of the percent change in real GDP has an unexpected sign. When the conventional closed-economy or openeconomy loanable funds model is considered, the article finds that more government borrowing as a percent of GDP does not result in a higher government bond yield, that the positive coefficients of the real money market rate, the growth rate of real GDP, and the expected inflation are significant at the 1%, 5% or 10% level, and that the negative coefficient of the ratio of the net capital inflow to GDP in the conventional open-economy loanable funds model is significant at the 1% level.government deficits, long-term interest rates, loanable funds model, expected inflation, world interest rates, exchange rates

Impacts of Macroeconomic Variables on the U.S. Stock Market Index and Policy Implications

This paper finds that the U.S. stock market index is positively associated with real GDP, stock earnings, the trade-weighted nominal effective exchange rate, and the U.K. stock market index and negatively influenced by the government debt/GDP ratio, the M2/GDP ratio, the real Treasury bill rate, the real corporate bond yield, the expected inflation rate, and the U.K. Treasury bill rate. The choice of an appropriate exchange rate may affect empirical outcomes. Hence, we need more economic growth and better earnings to have higher stock prices. The rising government debt/GDP ratio is expected to hurt stock prices whereas the relatively low interest rate would help stock prices. A higher M2/GDP ratio reduces stock prices partly due to its potential impacts on inflation and interest rates. The recent depreciation of the U.S. dollar would work unfavorably to the U.S. stock market index.Stock market index, government debt or deficits, money supply, exchange rate, interest rate, foreign stock market

The Normativity of Doxastic Correctness

It is widely maintained that doxastic norms that govern how people should believe can be explained by the truism that belief is governed by the correctness norm: believing p is correct if and only if p. This approach fails because it confuses two kinds of correctness norm: (1) It is correct for S to believe p if and only p; and (2) believing p is correct qua belief if and only if p. Only can (2) be said to be a truism about belief, but it cannot ground doxastic norms

Government Debt and the Long-Term Interest Rate: Application of an Extended Open-Economy Loanable Funds Model to Poland

This paper examines the behavior of the long-term interest rate in Poland based on a sample during 2001.Q1–2009.Q1. Both the demand for and supply of loanable funds are considered. Extending the openeconomy loanable funds model, this paper finds thatmore government debt as a percent of gdp leads to a higher long-term interest rate in Poland and that a higher real Treasury bill rate, more percent change in real GDP, a higher expected inflation rate, a higher world long-term interest rate, and depreciation of the zloty would increase the long-term interest rate in Poland. In the standard open-economy loanable funds model including the net capital inflow, the coefficient of the net capital inflow is positive and insignificant at the 10% level. Hence, the incorporation of the world interest rate and the nominal effective exchange rate in the model may better capture the behavior of the long-term interest rate in Poland.loanable funds model, government debt, long-term interest rates, expected inflation rates, nominal effective exchange rates

Macroeconomic Variables and the Stock Market: the Case of Lithuania

Applying the EGARCH model, this paper finds that Lithuania's stock market index is positively impacted by real GDP, the M2/GDP ratio, and the stock market indexes in the U.S. and Germany and negatively affected by the ratio of the government deficit to GDP, the LTL/USD exchange rate or depreciation of the litas, the domestic real interest rate, the expected inflation rate, and the euro area government bond yield. Hence, a declining government deficit/GDP ratio, a lower interest rate or more money supply relative to GDP, the appreciation of the litas, a lower foreign interest rate, or a robust world stock market would help the stock market in Lithuania .

Tests of the functional form, the substitution effect, and the wealth effect of Mexico´s money demand function

M1, M2, and M3 demands in Mexico are positively influenced by output and stock prices and negatively associated with the saving rate, the U.S. interest rate, and the expected inflation rate. Peso depreciation affects M1 demand negatively and M2 and M3 demands positively. The log-linear form cannot be rejected for M1 demand and can be rejected for M2 and M3 demands, while the linear form can be rejected for M1, M2, and M3 demands. The CUSUMSQ test shows that M1, M2, and M3 demands are stable; while the CUSUM test indicates stability in M1 and M3 demands and instability in M2 demand.Box-Cox transformation, currency substitution, wealth effect,stability tests

Gary Snyder, nature and ecological communication

99學年度蔡振興教師升等代表著作[[booktype]]紙

Dependence Estimation and Visualization in Multivariate Extremes with Applications to Financial Data

We investigate extreme dependence in a multivariate setting with special emphasis on financial applications. We introduce a new dependence function which allows us to capture the complete extreme dependence structure and present a nonparametric estimation procedure. The new dependence function is compared with existing measures including the spectral measure and other devices measuring extreme dependence. We also apply our method to a financial data set of zero coupon swap rates and estimate the extreme dependence in the data