Potential output in a rapidly developing economy: the case of China and a comparison with the United States and the European Union

The authors use a growth accounting framework to examine growth of the rapidly developing Chinese economy. Their findings support the view that, although feasible in the intermediate term, China's recent pattern of extensive growth is not sustainable in the long run. The authors believe that China will be able to sustain a growth rate of 8 to 9 percent for an extended period if it moves from extensive to intensive growth. They next compare potential growth in China with historical developments in the United States and the European Union. They discuss the differences in production structure and level of development across the three economies that may explain the countries' varied intermediate-term growth prospects. Finally, the authors provide an analysis of "green" gross domestic product and the role of natural resources in China's growth.Economic development ; Economic conditions - United States ; Economic conditions - China ; European Union

Modernization with Chinese Characteristics and Great Power

This open access book expounds in detail on the profound meaning and main characteristics of modernization with Chinese characteristics. This was done utilizing tools of historical investigation and fact-based research on the modernization of New China. The author provides a far-reaching outlook of the strategic goals and future trends of modernization with Chinese characteristics. In this book, the author answers the questions: What is modernization with Chinese characteristics? How did this modernization develop, and what are its main features? In what direction will it develop in the future? Why did China propose to basically realize the goal of socialist modernization by 2035? How can China achieve this ambitious goal on schedule? What major impact will this modernization have on China and the world? This book adheres to the concept of "knowledge for the people, knowledge for the country, and knowledge for mankind." It actively explores and summarizes the laws of modernization with Chinese characteristics and fully elucidates its characteristics. This book not only provides decision-makers with a basis for understanding national conditions and their national policy research, but also serves as an important reference for party members, cadres, and readers to understand the path of modernization with Chinese characteristics

Economic and Social Transformation in China

The Center for China Studies is among China’s most influential think-tanks, and its China Studies Reports are read at the highest levels of government. Now for the first time, the most important of these reports is collected in book form in English, providing a fascinating insight into the challenges and opportunities for Chinese development and the government’s thinking on economic and social issues. Including comparative studies with developed and developing nations, analysis of past economic performance and future trends, and effects of demographic shifts such as population ageing and urbanization, this book is an essential collection of research and includes notes made by central party leaders. Compiled by the founder of the Center for China Studies, one of the country’s leading economists, this book is key to understanding Chinese development and the likely future path of government policy

China: Surpassing the “Middle Income Trap”

This open access book explores one of the most fiercely debated issues in China: if and how China will surpass the middle income trap that has plagued many developing countries for years. This book gives readers a clear picture of China today and acts as a reference for other developing countries. China is facing many setbacks and experiencing an economic slowdown in recent years due to some serious issues, and income inequality is one such issue deferring China’s development potential by creating a middle income trap. This book thoroughly investigates both the unpromising factors and favorable conditions for China to overcome the trap. It illustrates that traps may be encountered at any stage of development and argues that political stability is the prerequisite to creating a favorable environment for economic development and addressing this “middle income trap”. Written by one of China's central planners, this book offers precious insights into the industrial policies that are transforming China and the world and will be of interest to China scholars, economists and political scientists

China in 2035

This open access book is a new study by the Institute for Contemporary China Studies at Tsinghua University, condensing the new achievements of the Institute’s national policy research. Taking "common prosperity" as the theme, the book elaborates the historical background, ideological sources and theoretical connotation of common prosperity. It reviews the theoretical and practical innovations of common prosperity in three historical periods: the socialist revolution and construction period, the new period of reform and opening up and socialist modernization, and the new era of socialism with Chinese characteristics. It discusses the development goals and practical approaches for China to build a society of common prosperity by 2035, analyzes the development basis and challenges China faces in promoting common prosperity, and puts forward the overall goals and quantitative indicator system for achieving common prosperity in the new era, as well as major tasks, policy logic and pathway for promoting common prosperity. The book also looks into the great significance and world significance of China's realization of common prosperity. Policy interpretation in the book is thorough, and the data is accurate, with authoritative, professional and forward-looking perspectives. This is an open access book

Tackling unemployment in China: state capacity and governance issues

This paper considers China's state capacity and changing governance as revealed through its policies to tackle unemployment. Despite high levels of growth, economic restructuring has resulted in rising unemployment over the last decade. The Chinese state has been able to manage job losses from state enterprises, demonstrating some state capacity in relation to this sector and some persistent command economy governance mechanisms. However both design and implementation of policies to compensate and assist particular groups among the unemployed have been shaped by weak state capacity in several other areas. First, capacity to gather accurate employment data is limited, meaning local and central governments do not have a good understanding of the extent and nature of unemployment. Second, the sustainability of supposedly mandatory unemployment insurance schemes is threatened by poor capacity to enforce participation. Third, poor central state capacity to ensure local governments implement policies effectively leads to poor unemployment insurance fund capacity, resulting in provision for only a narrow segment of the unemployed and low quality employment services. Although the adoption of unemployment insurance (and its extension to employers and employees in the private sector), the introduction of a Labour Contract Law in 2007, and the delivery of employment services by private businesses indicate a shift towards the use of new governance mechanisms based on entitlement, contract and private sector delivery of public-sector goods, that shift is undermined by poor state capacity in relation to some of these new mechanisms

China: Surpassing the “Middle Income Trap”

This open access book explores one of the most fiercely debated issues in China: if and how China will surpass the middle income trap that has plagued many developing countries for years. This book gives readers a clear picture of China today and acts as a reference for other developing countries. China is facing many setbacks and experiencing an economic slowdown in recent years due to some serious issues, and income inequality is one such issue deferring China’s development potential by creating a middle income trap. This book thoroughly investigates both the unpromising factors and favorable conditions for China to overcome the trap. It illustrates that traps may be encountered at any stage of development and argues that political stability is the prerequisite to creating a favorable environment for economic development and addressing this “middle income trap”. Written by one of China's central planners, this book offers precious insights into the industrial policies that are transforming China and the world and will be of interest to China scholars, economists and political scientists

The politics of Chinese trade and the Asian financial crises : questioning the wisdom of export-led growth

Between 1987 and 1996 Chinese exports increased by an average of 14% each year. During this decade, export growth became a crucial determinant of overall economic growth. However, as a consequence of the East Asian financial crises, Chinese export growth slowed, threatening the successful implementation of plans to restructure the domestic Chinese economy. This paper traces the reasons for the rapid growth and subsequent slowing of Chinese exports, and asks whether the strategy provides a solid basis for the long term development of the Chinese economy. In particular, the paper focuses on the role and significance of the processing trade in boosting Chinese exports. The high proportion of imported components in processed exports questions whether China is really benefiting as much from export growth as aggregate trade figures seem to suggest

Study on the National Conditions of Modernization with Chinese Characteristics

This is an open access book. Based on the analysis of China’s basic national conditions and development trends, this book begins with a general introduction to the study of “modernization with Chinese characteristics,” and then discusses the comprehensive construction of a prosperous society in all respects, unprecedented changes, the new national system, green modernization, and technological modernization. In addition, there will be a presentation of in-depth research on topics such as leapfrog development of human capital market, the new stage of socialism, common prosperity in 2035 and a summary of the basic characteristics and great significance of modernization of a Chinese-style economy, technology, and education. Through historical comparison, this work will show the development, stages and future prospects of modernization with Chinese characteristics -- focusing on international comparison, especially a quantitative comparison with Western countries. This will further highlight the fast-paced effect of modernization with Chinese characteristics, and place emphasis on the uniqueness and innovativeness of modernization with Chinese characteristics