Advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods in deciding whether and when to stop a clinical trial: an example of a neonatal cooling trial.

BackgroundDecisions to stop randomized trials are often based on traditional P value thresholds and are often unconvincing to clinicians. To familiarize clinical investigators with the application and advantages of Bayesian monitoring methods, we illustrate the steps of Bayesian interim analysis using a recent major trial that was stopped based on frequentist analysis of safety and futility.MethodsWe conducted Bayesian reanalysis of a factorial trial in newborn infants with hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy that was designed to investigate whether outcomes would be improved by deeper (32 °C) or longer cooling (120 h), as compared with those achieved by standard whole body cooling (33.5 °C for 72 h). Using prior trial data, we developed neutral and enthusiastic prior probabilities for the effect on predischarge mortality, defined stopping guidelines for a clinically meaningful effect, and derived posterior probabilities for predischarge mortality.ResultsBayesian relative risk estimates for predischarge mortality were closer to 1.0 than were frequentist estimates. Posterior probabilities suggested increased predischarge mortality (relative risk > 1.0) for the three intervention groups; two crossed the Bayesian futility threshold.ConclusionsBayesian analysis incorporating previous trial results and different pre-existing opinions can help interpret accruing data and facilitate informed stopping decisions that are likely to be meaningful and convincing to clinicians, meta-analysts, and guideline developers.Trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov NCT01192776 . Registered on 31 August 2010

Weaning of Moderately Preterm Infants from the Incubator to the Crib: A Randomized Clinical Trial

OBJECTIVE: To assess whether length of hospital stay is decreased among moderately preterm infants weaned from incubator to crib at a lower vs higher weight. STUDY DESIGN: This trial was conducted in the Eunice Kennedy Shriver National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. Infants with gestational ages 29-33 weeks, birthweight <1600 g, and in an incubator were randomly assigned to a weaning weight of 1600 or 1800 g. Within 60 to 100 g of weaning weight, the incubator temperature was decreased by 1.0°C to 1.5°C every 24 hours until 28.0°C. The infants were weaned to the crib following stable temperature at 36.5°C to 37.4°C for 8 to 12 hours. Clothing and bedcoverings were standardized. The primary outcome was length of hospital stay from birth to discharge; secondary outcomes included length of stay and growth velocity from weaning to discharge. Adverse events were monitored. RESULTS: Of 1565 infants screened, 885 were eligible, and 366 enrolled-187 to the 1600-g and 179 to the 1800-g group. Maternal and neonatal characteristics did not differ among weight groups. Length of hospital stay was a median of 43 days in the lower and 41 days in the higher weight group (P = .12). Growth velocity from completion of weaning to discharge was higher in the lower weight group, 13.7 g/kg/day vs 12.8 g/kg/day (P = .005). Groups did not differ in adverse events. CONCLUSIONS: Among moderately preterm neonates, weaning from incubator to crib at a lower weight did not decrease length of stay, but was safe and was accompanied by higher weight gain after weaning

Behavioral problems are associated with cognitive and language scores in toddlers born extremely preterm

ObjectiveTo evaluate the relationship of parent-reported child behaviors on the Child Behavior Checklist (CBCL) to cognition, language, and motor skills on the Bayley Scales of Infant and Toddler Development - III (Bayley-III) in toddlers born extremely preterm.Study designToddlers born extremely preterm (gestational ages 22 0/7 to 26 6/7 weeks) were tested at 22-26 months corrected age with Bayley-III while parents completed the CBCL. Socio-demographic variables and medical history were recorded. Linear regression models were used to assess the relationship of Bayley-III cognitive, motor, and language scores with CBCL scores, adjusting for medical and socio-demographic factors.ResultsInternalizing, affective, and pervasive development problem behavior scores on the CBCL correlated significantly with lower Bayley-III cognitive, language, and motor scores on unadjusted and adjusted analyses. Although externalizing and anxiety problems were significantly associated with cognitive and language scores on unadjusted analysis, the relationships were not significant after adjusting for socio-economic factors. CBCL scores were similar for boys and girls, with the exception of the pervasive developmental problem scale; boys had significantly more problems than girls (p = 0.02).ConclusionsThis study showed that parent reported behavior problems were related to lower cognitive, language, and motor development in toddlers born extremely preterm. Early findings of behavioral problems in toddlers born extremely premature may help identify children at greater risk for later learning difficulties. Adding a measure of behavior to the evaluation of these children may help better understand factors that can contribute to delays, especially in cognition and language

A systematic review, evidence synthesis and meta-analysis of quantitative and qualitative studies evaluating the clinical effectiveness, the cost-effectiveness, safety and acceptability of interventions to prevent postnatal depression

Background: Postnatal depression (PND) is a major depressive disorder in the year following childbirth, which impacts on women, their infants and their families. A range of interventions has been developed to prevent PND. Objectives: To (1) evaluate the clinical effectiveness, cost-effectiveness, acceptability and safety of antenatal and postnatal interventions for pregnant and postnatal women to prevent PND; (2) apply rigorous methods of systematic reviewing of quantitative and qualitative studies, evidence synthesis and decision-analytic modelling to evaluate the preventive impact on women, their infants and their families; and (3) estimate cost-effectiveness. Data sources: We searched MEDLINE, EMBASE, Science Citation Index and other databases (from inception to July 2013) in December 2012, and we were updated by electronic alerts until July 2013. Review methods: Two reviewers independently screened titles and abstracts with consensus agreement. We undertook quality assessment. All universal, selective and indicated preventive interventions for pregnant women and women in the first 6 postnatal weeks were included. All outcomes were included, focusing on the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS), diagnostic instruments and infant outcomes. The quantitative evidence was synthesised using network meta-analyses (NMAs). A mathematical model was constructed to explore the cost-effectiveness of interventions contained within the NMA for EPDS values. Results: From 3072 records identified, 122 papers (86 trials) were included in the quantitative review. From 2152 records, 56 papers (44 studies) were included in the qualitative review. The results were inconclusive. The most beneficial interventions appeared to be midwifery redesigned postnatal care [as shown by the mean 12-month EPDS score difference of –1.43 (95% credible interval –4.00 to 1.36)], person-centred approach (PCA)-based and cognitive–behavioural therapy (CBT)-based intervention (universal), interpersonal psychotherapy (IPT)-based intervention and education on preparing for parenting (selective), promoting parent–infant interaction, peer support, IPT-based intervention and PCA-based and CBT-based intervention (indicated). Women valued seeing the same health worker, the involvement of partners and access to several visits from a midwife or health visitor trained in person-centred or cognitive–behavioural approaches. The most cost-effective interventions were estimated to be midwifery redesigned postnatal care (universal), PCA-based intervention (indicated) and IPT-based intervention in the sensitivity analysis (indicated), although there was considerable uncertainty. Expected value of partial perfect information (EVPPI) for efficacy data was in excess of £150M for each population. Given the EVPPI values, future trials assessing the relative efficacies of promising interventions appears to represent value for money. Limitations: In the NMAs, some trials were omitted because they could not be connected to the main network of evidence or did not provide EPDS scores. This may have introduced reporting or selection bias. No adjustment was made for the lack of quality of some trials. Although we appraised a very large number of studies, much of the evidence was inconclusive. Conclusions: Interventions warrant replication within randomised controlled trials (RCTs). Several interventions appear to be cost-effective relative to usual care, but this is subject to considerable uncertainty. Future work recommendations: Several interventions appear to be cost-effective relative to usual care, but this is subject to considerable uncertainty. Future research conducting RCTs to establish which interventions are most clinically effective and cost-effective should be considered

Association of Antenatal Steroid Exposure at 21 to 22 Weeks of Gestation With Neonatal Survival and Survival Without Morbidities

IMPORTANCE: The provision of antenatal corticosteroids to pregnant patients at gestational age (GA) 22 6/7 weeks or less remains controversial and lacks support from randomized clinical trials. OBJECTIVE: To compare rates of survival and survival without major morbidities among infants born at GA 22 0/7 to 23 6/7 weeks after exposure to antenatal steroids at 22 6/7 weeks\u27 gestation or less vs no exposure to antenatal steroids. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This cohort study enrolled infants born at GA 22 0/7 to 23 6/7 weeks between January 1, 2016, and December 31, 2019, at centers in the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development Neonatal Research Network. Infants who did not receive intensive care and infants with antenatal steroid exposure after GA 22 6/7 weeks were excluded. EXPOSURE: Infants were classified as having no, partial, or complete exposure to antenatal steroids. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was survival to discharge. The main secondary outcome was survival without major neonatal morbidity. The associations of differential exposures to antenatal steroids with outcomes were evaluated using logistic regression, adjusting for GA, sex, race, maternal education, small for GA status, mode of delivery, multiple birth, prolonged rupture of membranes, year of birth, and Neonatal Research Network center. RESULTS: A total of 431 infants (mean [SD] GA, 22.6 [0.5] weeks; 232 [53.8%] boys) were included, with 110 infants (25.5%) receiving no antenatal steroids, 80 infants (18.6%) receiving partial antenatal steroids, and 241 infants (55.9%) receiving complete antenatal steroids. Seventeen infants were exposed to antenatal steroids at GA 21 weeks. Among infants exposed to complete antenatal steroids, 130 (53.9%) survived to discharge, compared with 30 infants (37.5%) with partial antenatal steroid exposure and 239 infants (35.5%) with no antenatal steroids. Infants born after complete antenatal steroid exposure, compared with those without antenatal steroid exposure, were more likely to survive to discharge (adjusted odds ratio [aOR], 1.95 [95% CI, 1.07-3.56]) and to survive without major morbidity (aOR, 2.74 [95% CI, 1.19-6.30]). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this retrospective cohort study, among infants born between GA 22 0/7 and 23 6/7 weeks who received intensive care, exposure to a complete course of antenatal steroids at GA 22 6/7 weeks or less was independently associated with greater odds of survival and survival without major morbidity. These data suggest that the use of antenatal steroids in patients at GA 22 6/7 weeks or less could be beneficial when active treatment is considered

Social Distancing and Extremely Preterm Births in the Initial COVID-19 Pandemic Period

HYPOTHESIS: Increased social distancing was associated with a lower incidence of extremely preterm live births (EPLB) during the initial COVID-19 pandemic period. STUDY DESIGN: Prospective study at the NICHD Neonatal Research Network sites comparing EPLB (22 RESULTS: EPLB and EPIS percentages did not significantly decrease (1.58-1.45%, p = 0.07, and 0.08-0.06%, p = 0.14, respectively). SDI was not significantly correlated with percent change of EPLB (CC = 0.29, 95% CI = -0.12, 0.71) or EPIS (CC = -0.23, 95% CI = -0.65, 0.18). Percent change in mean gestational age was positively correlated with SDI (CC = 0.49, 95% CI = 0.07, 0.91). CONCLUSIONS: Increased social distancing was not associated with change in incidence of EPLB but was associated with a higher gestational age of extremely preterm births

Value/s in early childhood education

Twenty years ago, as an early childhood teacher, I was fortunate to attend a professional development day conference led by the inimitable Professor Tina Bruce. At the conference, Tina asked we early childhood teachers: ‘What one thing would you put your back to the wall for in your job?’ In other words, Tina wanted us to share with one another the values that guide our daily work with young children and their families. An avowed Froebelian, Tina herself subscribes to a very particular set of values (Bruce 2015) and she is not alone. Many early childhood educators over two centuries have been influenced by the principles and philosophy developed by Froebel, the original kindergarten practitioner (Froebel Trust 2018). Indeed, as for so many others, my own initial teacher education was strongly influenced by Froebelian principles which have continued to guide my work in the field for thirty-five years. We live in an era of unprecedented global focus on early childhood development (UNESCO 2017; WHO 2018), in this editorial I revisit Froebel’s principles and I argue that we would be wise to continue to regard them as relevant and valuable touchstones for early childhood education in the twenty-first century

Growth Rates of Infants Randomized to Continuous Positive Airway Pressure or Intubation After Extremely Preterm Birth

OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the effects of early treatment with continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP) on nutritional intake and in-hospital growth rates of extremely preterm (EPT) infants. STUDY DESIGN: EPT infants (24 RESULTS: Growth data were analyzed for 810 of 1316 infants enrolled in SUPPORT (414 in the intervention group, 396 in the control group). The median gestational age was 26 weeks, and the mean birth weight was 839 g. Baseline characteristics, total nutritional intake, and in-hospital comorbidities were not significantly different between the 2 groups. In a regression model, growth rates between birth and 36 weeks of PMA, as well as growth rates during multiple intervals from birth to day 7, days 7-14, days 14-21, days 21-28, day 28 to 32 weeks PMA, and 32-36 weeks PMA did not differ between treatment groups. Independent of treatment group, higher growth rates from day 21 to day 28 were associated with a lower risk of having a Bayley-III cognitive score(P = .002). CONCLUSIONS: EPT infants randomized to early CPAP did not have higher in-hospital growth rates than infants randomized to early intubation

Exposure to environmental tobacco smoke among South Korean adults: a cross-sectional study of the 2005 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Studies have identified that environmental tobacco smoke exposure is associated with sociodemographic factors such as age, sex, and socioeconomic status, but few studies have been conducted in South Korea. In this study, the authors investigated the extent of environmental tobacco smoke exposure and factors related in a nationally representative sample of Korean adults.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>The data of 7,801 adults aged 19 years and over collected during the 2005 Korea National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey were analyzed. Information on smoking habits and exposure to environmental tobacco smoke was obtained by self-reports using a standardized questionnaire. Risks of environmental tobacco smoke exposure conferred by sociodemographic variables and behavioral risk factors were evaluated using logistic regression methods.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Overall, 36.1% of nonsmokers (defined as those not currently smoking) and 50.1% of current smokers were found to be exposed to environmental tobacco smoke either at work or at home. Among the nonsmokers, women were more likely to be exposed to environmental tobacco smoke at home (OR = 5.22, 95%CI, 4.08-6.67). Furthermore, an inverse relationship was found between education level and the risk of environmental tobacco smoke exposure at home (OR = 1.73, 95%CI, 1.38-2.17 for those with a high school education; OR = 2.30, 95%CI, 1.68-3.16 for those with a middle school education; and OR = 2.58, 95%CI, 1.85-3.59 for those with less than an elementary school education vs. those with a college education or more). In addition, those with office, sales service, or manual labor jobs were found to be at significantly higher risk of environmental tobacco smoke exposure at work than those with professional, administrative, or managerial jobs. Also, the risk of environmental tobacco smoke exposure in the workplace was significantly higher for alcohol drinkers than non-drinkers (OR = 1.23, 95%CI, 1.07-1.47). After adjusting for age, sex and education, it was found that those exposed to environmental tobacco smoke at home were more likely to have been admitted to hospital during the previous year (OR 1.29, 95%CI, 1.002-1.66).</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>In this study of Korean adults, exposure to environmental tobacco smoke at home or work was found to be affected by sex, age, marital status, educational level, and type of occupation. Accordingly, these factors should be given appropriate consideration by those developing policies or interventions designed to control exposure to environmental tobacco smoke.</p