Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle, is used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature, and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5\pm2 oC from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of \approx6 oC.Comment: 14 pages, including 5 figure

Long-Term Effects of School Size on Students' Outcomes

We estimate the effect of school size on students' long-term outcomes such as high school completion, being out of the labor market, and earnings at the age of 30. We use rich register data on the entire population of Danish children attending grade 9 in the period 1986-2004. This allows us to compare the results of different fixed effect and instrumental variables estimators. We use the natural population variation in the residential catchment areas and school openings and closures to instrument for actual school size. We find a robust positive but numerically fairly small relationship between school size and alternative measures of long-term success in the educational system and the labor market. The positive impact of school size seems mainly to be driven by boys, students from families with a low educational level and students attending schools in urban areas

The Length of Maternity Leave and Family Health

We study the relationship between the length of maternity leave and the physical and psychological health of the family. Using a reform of the parental leave scheme in Denmark that increased the number of weeks of leave with full benefit compensation, we estimate the effect of the length of maternity leave on a range of health indicators including the number of hospital admissions for both mother and child and the probability of the mother receiving antidepressants. The reform led to an increase in average post-birth maternity leave of 32 days. We find limited evidence that the increase in the length of maternity leave matters for child or maternal health outcomes and thus we complement the existing evidence on maternity leave expansions that tends to find limited effects on children's later developmental, educational, and labor market outcomes. Our results suggest that any beneficial effects of increasing the length of maternity leave are greater for low-resource families

An economic analysis of identity and career choice

Standard economic models which focus on pecuniary payoffs cannot explain why there are highly able individuals who choose careers with low pecuniary returns. Therefore, financial incentives are unlikely to be effective in influencing career choices of these individuals. Based on Akerlof and Kranton (2000), we consider a model of career choice and identity where individuals derive non-pecuniary identity payoffs. Using factor analysis on a range of attitude questions, we find two factors related to identity (career orientation and social orientation), which are important for educational choices. The implication is that policymakers and institutions of higher education need to focus on identity related issues rather than just improved financial incentives if they aim at attracting the high ability youth to occupations with excess demand for labor

Timing of College Enrollment and Family Formation Decisions

The level of progression of an individual's educational or labor market career is a potentially important factor for family formation decisions. We address this issue by considering the effects of a particular college admission system on family formation. We show that the admission system affects mainly the timing of college enrollment and not the college-going decision. As such, we consider a specific type of career interruption and its consequences for relationship formation and fertility decisions. Specifically, we employ a regression discontinuity design based on the college admission system to estimate the effect of being above the admission requirement in the year of application on later family formation decisions. We find that the admission system has substantial effects on the timing of family formation and, specifically, that the timing of college enrollment is an important determinant hereof. This suggests that career interruptions such as delays in the educational system can have large effects on family decision-making

The Short-Term Effects of School Consolidation on Student Achievement: Evidence of Disruption?

We exploit variation stemming from school consolidations in Denmark from 2010-2011 to analyze the impact on student achievement as measured by test scores. For each student we observe enrollment and test scores one year prior to school consolidation and up to four years after. We find that school consolidation has adverse effects on achievement in the short run and that these effects are most pronounced for students exposed to school closings. Furthermore, students initially enrolled in small schools experience the most detrimental effects. The effects appear to weaken over time, suggesting that part of the effect is due to disruption

The Short-Term Effects of School Consolidation on Student Achievement: Evidence of Disruption?

We exploit variation stemming from school consolidations in Denmark from 2010- 2011 to analyze the impact on student achievement as measured by test scores. For each student we observe enrollment and test scores one year prior to school consolidation and up to four years after. We find that school consolidation has adverse effects on achievement in the short run and that these effects are most pronounced for students exposed to school closings. Furthermore, students initially enrolled in small schools experience the most detrimental effects. The effects appear to weaken over time, suggesting that part of the effect is due to disruption

Assessing the rock glacier kinematics on three different timescales: a case study from the southern Swiss Alps

Surface temperature increases since the 1990s have often been associated with an increase in the speed of rock glaciers. Evidence of similar links on the centennial to millennial scale are, however, still lacking due to less focus to date on the medium- and long-term kinematics of these landforms. In order to assess (palaeo)climatic variations in rock glacier kinematics, we analysed the movements of the Stabbio di Largario rock glacier in the southern Swiss Alps using three different timescales. The Schmidt hammer exposure-age dating (SHD) was applied to study long-term kinematics in order to extrapolate the minimal age of the formation of the rock glacier, which may have started its development after the Mid-Holocene climate optimum, and to detect possible accelerations of the horizontal surface velocity during the Medieval Warm Period. Georeferentiation and orthorectification of six historical photographs of the rock glacier taken between ad 1910 and today were analysed using monoplotting to detect the rock glacier displacement on the decennial scale from the end of the Little Ice Age. Finally, differential global positioning system (dGPS) monitoring data available since ad 2009 were used to assess annual and seasonal creep rates of the rock glacier at present. Our results show a link between the periods of increase in mean air temperature on different timescales and variations in rock glacier kinematics and provide important new insights into rock glacier development and evolution on the long-term scale

The unequal adoption of ChatGPT exacerbates existing inequalities among workers

We study the adoption of ChatGPT, the icon of Generative AI, using a large-scale survey linked to comprehensive register data in Denmark. Surveying 18,000 workers from 11 exposed occupations, we document that ChatGPT is widespread, especially among younger and less-experienced workers. However, substantial inequalities have emerged. Women are 16 percentage points less likely to have used the tool for work. Furthermore, despite its potential to lift workers with less expertise, users of ChatGPT earned slightly more already before its arrival, even given their lower tenure. Workers see a substantial productivity potential in ChatGPT but are often hindered by employer restrictions and a perceived need for training