Solar activity and Svalbard temperatures

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations, and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle, is used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature, and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exists, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5\pm2 oC from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of \approx6 oC.Comment: 14 pages, including 5 figure

Solar Activity and Svalbard Temperatures

The long temperature series at Svalbard (Longyearbyen) show large variations and a positive trend since its start in 1912. During this period solar activity has increased, as indicated by shorter solar cycles. The temperature at Svalbard is negatively correlated with the length of the solar cycle. The strongest negative correlation is found with lags 10-12 years. The relations between the length of a solar cycle and the mean temperature in the following cycle are used to model Svalbard annual mean temperature and seasonal temperature variations. Residuals from the annual and winter models show no autocorrelations on the 5 per cent level, which indicates that no additional parameters are needed to explain the temperature variations with 95 per cent significance. These models show that 60 per cent of the annual and winter temperature variations are explained by solar activity. For the spring, summer, and fall temperatures autocorrelations in the residuals exist, and additional variables may contribute to the variations. These models can be applied as forecasting models. We predict an annual mean temperature decrease for Svalbard of 3.5 ± 2 • C from solar cycle 23 to solar cycle 24 (2009-20) and a decrease in the winter temperature of ≈ 6 • C

Challenges in the Detection and Attribution of Northern Hemisphere Surface Temperature Trends Since 1850

Since 2007, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) has heavily relied on the comparison between global climate model hindcasts and global surface temperature (ST) estimates for concluding that post-1950s global warming is mostly human-caused. In Connolly et al., we cautioned that this approach to the detection and attribution of climate change was highly dependent on the choice of Total Solar Irradiance (TSI) and ST data sets. We compiled 16 TSI and five ST data sets and found by altering the choice of TSI or ST, one could (prematurely) conclude anything from the warming being "mostly human-caused" to "mostly natural." Richardson and Benestad suggested our analysis was "erroneous" and "flawed" because we did not use a multilinear regression. They argued that applying a multilinear regression to one of the five ST series re-affirmed the IPCC's attribution statement. They also objected that many of the published TSI data sets were out-of-date. However, here we show that when applying multilinear regression analysis to an expanded and updated data set of 27 TSI series, the original conclusions of Connolly et al. are confirmed for all five ST data sets. Therefore, it is still unclear whether the observed warming is mostly human-caused, mostly natural or some combination of both.Fil: Connolly, Ronan. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Soon, Willie. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados Unidos. Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science; HungríaFil: Connolly, Michael. Center For Environmental Research And Earth Sciences; Estados UnidosFil: Baliunas, Sallie. Harvard-Smithsonian Center For Astrophysics; Estados UnidosFil: Berglund, Johan. No especifíca;Fil: Butler, C. J.. No especifíca;Fil: Cionco, Rodolfo Gustavo. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina. Provincia de Buenos Aires. Gobernación. Comisión de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina. Universidad Tecnológica Nacional. Facultad Regional San Nicolás. Grupo de Estudios Ambientales; ArgentinaFil: Elias, Ana Georgina. Universidad Nacional de Tucumán. Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino. - Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Científico Tecnológico Conicet Noa Sur. Instituto de Física del Noroeste Argentino; ArgentinaFil: Fedorov, Valery M.. Universidad Estatal de Moscu Mijail Vasilievich Lomonosov (mgu);Fil: Harde, Hermann. Helmut-Schmidt-University; AlemaniaFil: Henry, Gregory W.. Tennessee State University; Estados UnidosFil: Hoyt, Douglas V.. No especifíca;Fil: Humlum, Ole. University of Oslo; NoruegaFil: Legates, David R.. University of Delaware; Estados UnidosFil: Scafetta, Nicola. Università degli Studi di Napoli Federico II; ItaliaFil: Solheim, Jan-Erik. The Arctic University of Norway; NoruegaFil: Szarka, László. Institute of Earth Physics and Space Science; HungríaFil: Velasco Herrera, Víctor M.. Universidad Nacional Autónoma de México; MéxicoFil: Yan, Hong. Chinese Academy of Sciences; República de ChinaFil: Zhang, Weijia. Shaoxing University; Chin

Observations on Debris in the Basal Transport Zone of Mýrdalsjökull, Iceland

Mýrdalsjökull is a temperate ice cap with an area of 596 km2, covering the volcanic Katlamassif in southern Iceland. Since 1900, extensive areas of ground moraine have been exposed during glacier retreat along the northern margin of the ice cap. The ground moraine surface is characteristically covered by a coarse layer of rock particles 10 to 150 mm in size. At the present glacier front, particles of corresponding size can be seen melting out from the lowermost glacier ice. Samples of ice and debris were collected from the basal transport zone. here generally 20 to 50 mm thick. and the volume, grain size, shape, and surface texture were determined. The orientation of rock particles in the englacial position. in the basal transport zone, and in the under lying lodgement till were analysed. The rock particles that dominate the debris content in the basal transport zone and constitute the coarse surface layer beyond the glacier margin are interpreted as a residual, which has escaped subglacial frictional deposition.</jats:p