Human search for a target on a textured background is consistent with a stochastic model

Previous work has demonstrated that search for a target in noise is consistent with the predictions of the optimal search strategy, both in the spatial distribution of fixation locations and in the number of fixations observers require to find the target. In this study we describe a challenging visual-search task and compare the number of fixations required by human observers to find the target to predictions made by a stochastic search model. This model relies on a target-visibility map based on human performance in a separate detection task. If the model does not detect the target, then it selects the next saccade by randomly sampling from the distribution of saccades that human observers made. We find that a memoryless stochastic model matches human performance in this task. Furthermore, we find that the similarity in the distribution of fixation locations between human observers and the ideal observer does not replicate: Rather than making the signature doughnut-shaped distribution predicted by the ideal search strategy, the fixations made by observers are best described by a central bias. We conclude that, when searching for a target in noise, humans use an essentially random strategy, which achieves near optimal behavior due to biases in the distributions of saccades we have a tendency to make. The findings reconcile the existence of highly efficient human search performance with recent studies demonstrating clear failures of optimality in single and multiple saccade tasks

Method for defect free keyhole plasma arc welding

A plasma arc welding process for welding metal of increased thickness with one pass includes operating the plasma arc welding apparatus at a selected plasma gas flow rate, travel speed and arc current, to form a weld having a penetration ratio to weld height to weld width, and maintaining the penetration ratio at less than 0.74. Parameters for the plasma gas flow rate, travel speed and arc current are adjusted to a steady state condition during a start up period and maintained during the steady state condition to complete a weld. During a terminal stopping period, the travel speed is stopped and instantaneously replaced by filler wire which adds material to fill the keyhole that had been formed by the welding process. Parameters are subsequently adjusted during the stopping period to terminate the weld in a sound manner

Fitting parametric random effects models in very large data sets with application to VHA national data

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>With the current focus on personalized medicine, patient/subject level inference is often of key interest in translational research. As a result, random effects models (REM) are becoming popular for patient level inference. However, for very large data sets that are characterized by large sample size, it can be difficult to fit REM using commonly available statistical software such as SAS since they require inordinate amounts of computer time and memory allocations beyond what are available preventing model convergence. For example, in a retrospective cohort study of over 800,000 Veterans with type 2 diabetes with longitudinal data over 5 years, fitting REM via generalized linear mixed modeling using currently available standard procedures in SAS (e.g. PROC GLIMMIX) was very difficult and same problems exist in Stata’s gllamm or R’s lme packages. Thus, this study proposes and assesses the performance of a meta regression approach and makes comparison with methods based on sampling of the full data.</p> <p>Data</p> <p>We use both simulated and real data from a national cohort of Veterans with type 2 diabetes (n=890,394) which was created by linking multiple patient and administrative files resulting in a cohort with longitudinal data collected over 5 years.</p> <p>Methods and results</p> <p>The outcome of interest was mean annual HbA1c measured over a 5 years period. Using this outcome, we compared parameter estimates from the proposed random effects meta regression (REMR) with estimates based on simple random sampling and VISN (Veterans Integrated Service Networks) based stratified sampling of the full data. Our results indicate that REMR provides parameter estimates that are less likely to be biased with tighter confidence intervals when the VISN level estimates are homogenous.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p>When the interest is to fit REM in repeated measures data with very large sample size, REMR can be used as a good alternative. It leads to reasonable inference for both Gaussian and non-Gaussian responses if parameter estimates are homogeneous across VISNs.</p

Future Contingents and the Logic of Temporal Omniscience

At least since Aristotle’s famous 'sea-battle' passages in On Interpretation 9, some substantial minority of philosophers has been attracted to the doctrine of the open future--the doctrine that future contingent statements are not true. But, prima facie, such views seem inconsistent with the following intuition: if something has happened, then (looking back) it was the case that it would happen. How can it be that, looking forwards, it isn’t true that there will be a sea battle, while also being true that, looking backwards, it was the case that there would be a sea battle? This tension forms, in large part, what might be called the problem of future contingents. A dominant trend in temporal logic and semantic theorizing about future contingents seeks to validate both intuitions. Theorists in this tradition--including some interpretations of Aristotle, but paradigmatically, Thomason (1970), as well as more recent developments in Belnap, et. al (2001) and MacFarlane (2003, 2014)--have argued that the apparent tension between the intuitions is in fact merely apparent. In short, such theorists seek to maintain both of the following two theses: (i) the open future: Future contingents are not true, and (ii) retro-closure: From the fact that something is true, it follows that it was the case that it would be true. It is well-known that reflection on the problem of future contingents has in many ways been inspired by importantly parallel issues regarding divine foreknowledge and indeterminism. In this paper, we take up this perspective, and ask what accepting both the open future and retro-closure predicts about omniscience. When we theorize about a perfect knower, we are theorizing about what an ideal agent ought to believe. Our contention is that there isn’t an acceptable view of ideally rational belief given the assumptions of the open future and retro-closure, and thus this casts doubt on the conjunction of those assumptions

Recognition of lightning-induced trauma to the skeleton: a forensic taphonomic study

Lightning related deaths can be hard to recognize in most circumstances, unless explicitly looked for, and impossible when the remains are fully skeletonized. There is a crucial need for this for forensic authorities in South Africa, where there is a high incidence of lightning deaths and a high rate of recovery of unidentified bodies in the skeletonized state. The effects of a 15 kA, 8/20 I-Ls impulse current applied to a series of pig femurs was investigated as well as a comparison with a skeletal element from a giraffe struck by lightning. A distinct pattern of traumatization was observed and is described in detail. Further analysis and comparison to human results should be carried out and a method for accurately identifying lightning related fatalities should be created

HIV infection is associated with elevated biomarkers of immune activation in Ugandan adults with pneumonia.

IntroductionPneumonia is an important cause of morbidity and mortality in persons living with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. How immune activation differs among HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected adults with pneumonia is unknown.MethodsThe Inflammation, Aging, Microbes, and Obstructive Lung Disease (I AM OLD) Cohort is a prospective cohort of adults with pneumonia in Uganda. In this cross-sectional analysis, plasma was collected at pneumonia presentation to measure the following 12 biomarkers: interleukin 6 (IL-6), soluble tumor necrosis factor receptors 1 and 2 (sTNFR-1 and sTNFR-2), high sensitivity C-reactive protein (hsCRP), fibrinogen, D-dimer, soluble CD27 (sCD27), interferon gamma-inducible protein 10 (IP-10), soluble CD14 (sCD14), soluble CD163 (sCD163), hyaluronan, and intestinal fatty acid binding protein. We asked whether biomarker levels differed between HIV-infected and HIV-uninfected participants, and whether higher levels of these biomarkers were associated with mortality.ResultsOne hundred seventy-three participants were enrolled. Fifty-three percent were HIV-infected. Eight plasma biomarkers-sTNFR-1, sTNFR-2, hsCRP, D-dimer, sCD27, IP-10, sCD14, and hyaluronan-were higher among participants with HIV infection, after adjustment for pneumonia severity. Higher levels of 8 biomarkers-IL-6, sTNFR-1, sTNFR-2, hsCRP, IP-10, sCD14, sCD163, and hyaluronan-were associated with increased 2-month mortality.ConclusionsAs in other clinical contexts, HIV infection is associated with a greater degree of immune activation among Ugandan adults with pneumonia. Some of these are also associated with short-term mortality. Further study is needed to explore whether these biomarkers might predict poor long-term outcomes-such as the development of obstructive lung disease-in patients with HIV who have recovered from pneumonia

“True fan = watch match”? In Search of the ‘Authentic’ Soccer Fan.

Academics have created typologies to divide association football (soccer) fans into categories based upon the assumed ‘authenticity’ of their fandom practices. One of the main requirements of ‘authentic’ fandom has been assumed to be match attendance. The goal of this paper was to critically assess this assumption through considering how fans themselves talk about the significance of match attendance as evidence of ‘authentic’ fandom. In light of the fact that the voices of English non-league fans on the ‘authenticity’ debate have so far been overshadowed by the overbearing focus of much previous research on the upper echelons of English soccer, an e-survey was conducted with 151 members of an online community of fans of English Northern League (NL) clubs (a semi-professional / amateur league based in North East England). Findings revealed that opinion was divided on the constituents of ‘authentic’ fandom and match attendance was not deemed to be the core evidence of support for a club by 42% of the sample. Elias (1978) suggested that dichotomous thinking hinders sociological understanding and it is concluded that fan typologies are not sufficient for assessing the ‘authenticity’ of fan activities

The feasibility of nurse-delivered, low-intensity cognitive behavioural therapy for irritable bowel syndrome.

Introduction: This study assessed the feasibility of nurse-delivered cognitive behavioural therapy (CBT) for the treatment of irritable bowel syndrome (IBS). Methods and analysis: A mixed-method design was used, and 20 participants were randomly allocated to high-intensity CBT (n=5), guided self-help (n=5), self-help only (n=5) or treatment as usual (n=5). Ten intervention participants completed semi-structured interviews. Quantitative data were analysed using descriptive statistics; qualitative data were analysed using group thematic analysis. Results: Barriers to the interventions were lack of therapist contact, negative preconceptions about treatment and factors relating to supporting materials. Treatment facilitators included therapist-facilitated relaxation, narratives located within self-help materials and social support mechanisms. Conclusion: Further development of the low-intensity interventions in collaboration with service users is required to improve intervention acceptability and relevance.N/

Improved Thermal Modulator for Gas Chromatography

An improved thermal modulator has been invented for use in a variant of gas chromatography (GC). The variant in question denoted as two-dimensional gas chromatography (2DGC) or GC-GC involves the use of three series-connected chromatographic columns, in the form of capillary tubes coated interiorly with suitable stationary phases (compounds for which different analytes exhibit different degrees of affinity). The two end columns are relatively long and are used as standard GC columns. The thermal modulator includes the middle column, which is relatively short and is not used as a standard GC column: instead, its temperature is modulated to affect timed adsorption and desorption of analyte gases between the two end columns in accordance with a 2DGC protocol

From The Med to The World

Seagoing Ships and Seamanship in the Bronze Age Levant, by Shelley Wachsmann; Homeric Seafaring, by Samuel Mark; Byzantine Warship vs Arab Warship, 7th–11th Centuries, by Angus Konsta