The match between climate services demands and Earth System Models supplies

Earth System Models (ESM) are key ingredients of many of the climate services that are currently being developed and delivered. However, ESMs have more applications than the provision of climate services, and similarly many climate services use more sources of information than ESMs. This discussion paper elaborates on dilemmas that are evident at the interface between ESMs and climate services, in particular: (a) purposes of the models versus service development, (b) gap between the spatial and temporal scales of the models versus the scales needed in applications, and (c) Tailoring climate model results to real-world applications. A continued and broad-minded dialogue between the ESM developers and climate services providers’ communities is needed to improve both the optimal use and direction of ESM development and climate service development. We put forward considerations to improve this dialogue between the communities developing ESMs and climate services, in order to increase the mutual benefit that enhanced understanding of prospects and limitations of ESMs and climate services will bring.This work and its contributors (B. van den Hurk, C. Hewitt, J. Bessembinder, F. Doblas-Reyes, R. Döscher) were funded by the Horizon 2020 Framework Programme of the European Union: Project ref. 689029 (Climateurope project). The co-author and editor of the journal states that she was not involved in the review process of the paper.Peer ReviewedPostprint (published version

Parameter Sensitivity in LSMs: An Analysis Using Stochastic Soil Moisture Models and ELDAS Soil Parameters

Integration of simulated and observed states through data assimilation as well as model evaluation requires a realistic representation of soil moisture in land surface models (LSMs). However, soil moisture in LSMs is sensitive to a range of uncertain input parameters, and intermodel differences in parameter values are often large. Here, the effect of soil parameters on soil moisture and evapotranspiration are investigated by using parameters from three different LSMs participating in the European Land Data Assimilation System (ELDAS) project. To prevent compensating effects from other than soil parameters, the effects are evaluated within a common framework of parsimonious stochastic soil moisture models. First, soil parameters are shown to affect soil moisture more strongly than the average evapotranspiration. In arid climates, the effect of soil parameters is on the variance rather than the mean, and the intermodel flux differences are smallest. Soil parameters from the ELDAS LSMs differ strongly, most notably in the available moisture content between the wilting point and the critical moisture content, which differ by a factor of 3. The ELDAS parameters can lead to differences in mean volumetric soil moisture as high as 0.10 and an average evapotranspiration of 10%–20% for the investigated parameter range. The parsimonious framework presented here can be used to investigate first-order parameter sensitivities under a range of climate conditions without using full LSM simulations. The results are consistent with many other studies using different LSMs under a more limited range of possible forcing condition

Tropical and mid-latitude teleconnections interacting with the Indian summer monsoon rainfall: a theory-guided causal effect network approach

The alternation of active and break phases in Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall at intraseasonal timescales characterizes each ISM season. Both tropical and mid-latitude drivers influence this intraseasonal ISM variability. The circumglobal teleconnection observed in boreal summer drives intraseasonal variability across the mid-latitudes, and a two-way interaction between the ISM and the circumglobal teleconnection pattern has been hypothesized. We use causal discovery algorithms to test the ISM circumglobal teleconnection hypothesis in a causal framework. A robust causal link from the circumglobal teleconnection pattern and the North Atlantic region to ISM rainfall is identified, and we estimate the normalized causal effect (CE) of this link to be about 0.2 (a 1 standard deviation shift in the circumglobal teleconnection causes a 0.2 standard deviation shift in the ISM rainfall 1 week later). The ISM rainfall feeds back on the circumglobal teleconnection pattern, however weakly. Moreover, we identify a negative feedback between strong updraft located over India and the Bay of Bengal and the ISM rainfall acting at a biweekly timescale, with enhanced ISM rainfall following strong updraft by 1 week. This mechanism is possibly related to the boreal summer intraseasonal oscillation. The updraft has the strongest CE of 0.5, while the Madden–Julian oscillation variability has a CE of 0.2–0.3. Our results show that most of the ISM variability on weekly timescales comes from these tropical drivers, though the mid-latitude teleconnection also exerts a substantial influence. Identifying these local and remote drivers paves the way for improved subseasonal forecasts

Evaluation of European Land Data Assimilation System (ELDAS) products using in site observations

Three land-surface models with land-data assimilation scheme (DA) were evaluated for one growing season using in situ observations obtained across Europe. To avoid drifts in the land-surface state in the models, soil moisture corrections are derived from errors in screen-level atmospheric quantities. With the in situ data it is assessed whether these land-surface schemes produce adequate results regarding the annual range of the soil water content, the monthly mean soil moisture content in the root zone and evaporative fraction (the ratio of evapotranspiration to energy available at the surface). DA considerably reduced bias in net precipitation, while slightly reducing RMSE as well. Evaporative fraction was improved in dry conditions but was hardly affected in moist conditions. The amplitude of soil moisture variations tended to be underestimated. The impact of improved land-surface properties like Leaf Area Index, water holding capacity and rooting depth may be as large as corrections of the DA systems. Because soil moisture memorizes errors in the hydrological cycle of the models, DA will remain necessary in forecast mode. Model improvements should be balanced against improvements of DA per se. Model bias appearing from persistent analysis increments arising from DA systems should be addressed by model improvement

Comparative susceptibility of mosquito populations in North Queensland, Australia to oral infection with dengue virus.

Dengue is the most prevalent arthropod-borne virus, with at least 40% of the world's population at risk of infection each year. In Australia, dengue is not endemic, but viremic travelers trigger outbreaks involving hundreds of cases. We compared the susceptibility of Aedes aegypti mosquitoes from two geographically isolated populations to two strains of dengue virus serotype 2. We found, interestingly, that mosquitoes from a city with no history of dengue were more susceptible to virus than mosquitoes from an outbreak-prone region, particularly with respect to one dengue strain. These findings suggest recent evolution of population-based differences in vector competence or different historical origins. Future genomic comparisons of these populations could reveal the genetic basis of vector competence and the relative role of selection and stochastic processes in shaping their differences. Lastly, we show the novel finding of a correlation between midgut dengue titer and titer in tissues colonized after dissemination

Shuttle Planning for Link Closures in Urban Public Transport Networks

Urban public transport systems must periodically close certain links for maintenance, which can have significant effects on the service provided to passengers. In practice, the effects of closures are mitigated by replacing the closed links with a simple shuttle service. However, alternative shuttle services could reduce inconvenience at a lower operating cost. This paper proposes a model to select shuttle lines and frequencies under budget constraints. We propose a new formulation that allows a minimal frequency restriction on any line that is operated and minimizes passenger inconvenience cost, which includes transfers and frequency-dependent waiting time costs. This model is applied to a shuttle design problem based on a real-world case study of the Massachusetts Bay Transportation Authority network of Boston, Massachusetts. The results show that additional shuttle routes can reduce passenger delay compared to the standard industry practice, while also distributing delay more equally over passengers, at the same operating budget. The results are robust under different assumptions about passenger route choice behavior. Computational experiments show that the proposed formulation, coupled with a preprocessing step, can be solved faster than prior formulations

Релігійний чинник у процесі вдосконалення Конституції України

Multiple states of woody cover under similar climate conditions are found in both conceptual models and observations. Due to the limitation of the observed woody cover data set, it is unclear whether the observed bimodality is caused by the presence of multiple stable states or is due to dynamic growth processes of vegetation. In this study, we combine a woody cover data set with an above ground biomass data set to investigate the simultaneous occurrences of savanna and forest states under different precipitation forcing. To interpret the results we use a recently developed vegetation dynamics model (the Balanced Optimality Structure Vegetation Model), in which the effect of fires is included. Our results show that bimodality also exists in above ground biomass and retrieved vegetation structure. In addition, the observed savanna distribution can be understood as derived from a stable state and a slightly drifting (transient) state, the latter having the potential to shift to the forest state. Finally, the results indicate that vegetation structure (horizontal vs. vertical leaf extent) is a crucial component for the existence of bimodality

Экспериментальный анализ фонетических изменений в английской речи датско-английских билингвов

Одним из ключевых показателей, присущих двуязычному речевому поведению молодых датчан, является специфическая маркированность их английского произношения, что обращает на себя внимание уже с первых минут общения с ними. Эта маркированность произношения проявляется как следствие фонологической интерференции, которая возникает под влиянием артикуляции, интонации, ритмики, ударения первого (датского) языка на соответствующие параметры произношения второго (английского) языка.Одним з ключових показників, властивих двомовній мовній поведінці молодих данців, є специфічна маркированість їх англійської вимови, що звертає на себе увагу вже з перших хвилин спілкування з ними. Ця маркированість вимови виявляється як наслідок фонологічної інтерференції, яка виникає під впливом артикуляції, інтонації, ритміки, наголосу першої (данської) мови на відповідні параметри вимови другої (англійської) мови

Shuttle Planning for Link Closures in Urban Public Transport Networks

Urban Public Transport systems must periodically close certain links for main- tenance, which can have significant effects on the service provided to passengers. In practice, the effects of closures are mitigated by replacing the link with a simple shuttle service. However, alternative shuttle services could reduce inconvenience at lower op- erating cost. This paper proposes a model to select shuttle lines and frequencies under budget constraints. A new formulation is proposed that allows a minimal frequency restriction on any line that is operated, and minimizes passenger inconvenience cost, including transfers and frequency-dependent waiting time. This model is applied to a shuttle design problem based on a real world case study of the MBTA network of Boston (USA). The results show that additional shuttle routes can reduce passenger delay in comparison to the standard industry practice, while also distributing delay more equally over passengers, at the same operating budget. The results are robust under different assumptions about passenger route choice behavior. Computational experiments show that the proposed formulation, coupled with a preprocessing step, can be solved faster than prior formulations

Don’t look back in anger: the rewarding value of a female face is discounted by an angry expression

The modulating effect of emotional expression on the rewarding nature of attractive and nonattractive female faces in heterosexual men was explored in a motivated viewing paradigm. This paradigm, which is an indicator of neural reward, requires the viewer to expend effort to maintain or reduce image-viewing times. Males worked to extend the viewing time for happy and neutral attractive faces but to reduce the viewing time for the attractive angry faces. Attractive angry faces were rated as more aesthetically pleasing than the nonattractive faces; however, the males worked to reduce their viewing time to a level comparable with the nonattractive neutral and happy faces. Therefore, the addition of an angry expression onto an otherwise attractive face renders it unrewarding and aversive to potential mates. Mildly happy expressions on the nonattractive faces did little to improve their attractiveness or reward potential, with males working to reduce viewing time for all nonattractive faces