Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. <br><br> The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast

The MOSDEF Survey: The Metallicity Dependence of X-Ray Binary Populations at z ∼ 2

Population synthesis models predict that high-mass X-ray binary (HMXB) populations produced in low-metallicity environments should be more X-ray luminous, a trend supported by studies of nearby galaxies. This trend may be responsible for the observed increase of the X-ray luminosity (L X) per star formation rate (SFR) with redshift due to the decrease of metallicity (Z) at fixed stellar mass as a function of redshift. To test this hypothesis, we use a sample of 79 z ∼ 2 star-forming galaxies with oxygen abundance measurements from the MOSDEF survey, which obtained rest-frame optical spectra for ∼1500 galaxies in the CANDELS fields at 1.37 &lt; z &lt; 3.80. Using Chandra data from the Chandra AEGIS-X Deep, Chandra Deep Field North, and Chandra Deep Field South surveys, we stack the X-ray data at the galaxy locations in bins of redshift and Z because the galaxies are too faint to be individually detected. In agreement with previous studies, the average L X/SFR of our z ∼ 2 galaxy sample is enhanced by ≈0.4-0.8 dex relative to local HMXB L X-SFR scaling relations. Splitting our sample by Z, we find that L X/SFR and Z are anticorrelated with 97% confidence. This observed Z dependence for HMXB-dominated galaxies is consistent with both the local L X-SFR-Z relation and a subset of population synthesis models. Although the statistical significance of the observed trends is weak owing to the low X-ray statistics, these results constitute the first direct evidence connecting the redshift evolution of L X/SFR and the Z dependence of HMXBs

Some exact solutions of F(R) gravity with charged (a)dS black hole interpretation

In this paper we obtain topological static solutions of some kind of pure $F(R)$ gravity. The present solutions are two kind: first type is uncharged solution which corresponds with the topological (a)dS Schwarzschild solution and second type has electric charge and is equivalent to the Einstein-$\Lambda$-conformally invariant Maxwell solution. In other word, starting from pure gravity leads to (charged) Einstein-$\Lambda$ solutions which we interpreted them as (charged) (a)dS black hole solutions of pure $F(R)$ gravity. Calculating the Ricci and Kreschmann scalars show that there is a curvature singularity at $r=0$. We should note that the Kreschmann scalar of charged solutions goes to infinity as $r \rightarrow 0$, but with a rate slower than that of uncharged solutions.Comment: 21 pages, 4 figures, generalization to higher dimensions, references adde

Theory and simulation of ultra-high-temperature ceramics

At Imperial College our group contributes theory and simulation advances to the Materials for Extreme Environments (XMat) project. Our research supports experiment and industry by developing and applying new high-temperature modelling techniques. These techniques are broad-ranging, from CALPHAD and DFT, to interatomic potentials and analytic models. Here we present advances on each approach and re-cover highlights including: - the release of MEAMfit, the interatomic potential fitting code - the development of the TU-TILD approach, for fast and full-order anharmonic thermodynamics [1] - a new first-principles-assisted CALPHAD assessment of ZrC - analytic models of strain and anharmonicity in carbides and borides - ab initio prediction of intrinsic defects at ultra-high temperatures - first principles heat and charge transport predictions for carbides Further, we summarise ongoing developments from the theory and simulation group, such as on first principles MAX phase thermodynamics Please click Additional Files below to see the full abstract

Ab Initio Screening Approach for the Discovery of Lignin Polymer Breaking Pathways

The directed depolymerization of lignin biopolymers is of utmost relevance for the valorization or commercialization of biomass fuels. We present a computational and theoretical screening approach to identify potential cleavage pathways and resulting fragments that are formed during depolymerization of lignin oligomers containing two to six monomers. We have developed a chemical discovery technique to identify the chemically relevant putative fragments in eight known polymeric linkage types of lignin. Obtaining these structures is a crucial precursor to the development of any further kinetic modeling. We have developed this approach by adapting steered molecular dynamics calculations under constant force and varying the points of applied force in the molecule to diversify the screening approach. Key observations include relationships between abundance and breaking frequency, the relative diversity of potential pathways for a given linkage, and the observation that readily cleaved bonds can destabilize adjacent bonds, causing subsequent automatic cleavage.Massachusetts Institute of Technology (Research Support Corporation, Reed Grant)United States. Dept. of Energy. Computational Science Graduate Fellowship Program (DOE-CSGF)Burroughs Wellcome Fund (Career Award at the Scientific Interface

Overview of biologically digested leachate treatment using adsorption

Biological process is effective in treating most biodegradable organic matter present in leachate; however, a significant amount of ammonia, metals and refractory organic compounds may still remain in this biologically digested leachate. This effluent cannot be released to receiving bodies until the discharge limit is met. Several physical/chemical processes have been practiced as post-treatment to remove the remaining pollutants including coagulation–flocculation, oxidation and adsorption. Adsorption is often applied in leachate treatment as it enhances removal of refractory organic compounds. This chapter will focus on works related to adsorption as one of the commonly used methods to treat biologically digested leachate further down to acceptable discharge limit

Effects of pretreatments of Napier Grass with deionized water, sulfuric acid and sodium hydroxide on pyrolysis oil characteristics

The depletion of fossil fuel reserves has led to increasing interest in liquid bio-fuel from renewable biomass. Biomass is a complex organic material consisting of different degrees of cellulose, hemicellulose, lignin, extractives and minerals. Some of the mineral elements tend to retard conversions, yield and selectivity during pyrolysis processing. This study is focused on the extraction of mineral retardants from Napier grass using deionized water, dilute sodium hydroxide and sulfuric acid and subsequent pyrolysis in a fixed bed reactor. The raw biomass was characterized before and after each pretreatment following standard procedure. Pyrolysis study was conducted in a fixed bed reactor at 600 o�C, 30 �C/min and 30 mL/min N2 flow. Pyrolysis oil (bio-oil) collected was analyzed using standard analytic techniques. The bio-oil yield and characteristics from each pretreated sample were compared with oil from the non-pretreated sample. Bio-oil yield from the raw sample was 32.06 wt% compared to 38.71, 33.28 and 29.27 wt% oil yield recorded from the sample pretreated with sulfuric acid, deionized water and sodium hydroxide respectively. GC–MS analysis of the oil samples revealed that the oil from all the pretreated biomass had more value added chemicals and less ketones and aldehydes. Pretreatment with neutral solvent generated valuable leachate, showed significant impact on the ash extraction, pyrolysis oil yield, and its composition and therefore can be regarded as more appropriate for thermochemical conversion of Napier grass

Overview of biologically digested leachate treatment using adsorption

Biological process is effective in treating most biodegradable organic matter present in leachate; however, a significant amount of ammonia, metals and refractory organic compounds may still remain in this biologically digested leachate. This effluent cannot be released to receiving bodies until the discharge limit is met. Several physical/chemical processes have been practiced as post-treatment to remove the remaining pollutants including coagulation–flocculation, oxidation and adsorption. Adsorption is often applied in leachate treatment as it enhances removal of refractory organic compounds. This chapter will focus on works related to adsorption as one of the commonly used methods to treat biologically digested leachate further down to acceptable discharge limit

Investigating the effect of vocational education and training on rural women’s empowerment

peer reviewedThis research is an attempt to identify the most important dimensions of vocational education and training (VET) on empowering rural women, a topic that has received less attention. The present study is a quantitative, non-experimental, applied, survey research, whose statistical population includes rural women and girls who participated in VET classes. The research tool was a researcher-designed questionnaire. The reliability and validity of the research tool using a pilot test and calculating Cronbach’s alpha, AVE, and CR coefficients were shown to indicate the high capability of the research tool to collect data. The results showed that among the four dimensions of VET, the role of content and educator was more than other dimensions and these dimensions of training had improved the economic empowerment of rural women, which was often at the lowest level. The conceptual framework presented can be used as a guide to achieving sustainable development goals of the millennium; and should be considered at the national and international levels. The paper makes an impact on the growing body of knowledge by emphasizing on more important dimensions of education; which can be effective for the empowerment of women, especially in the economic dimension. In the existing studies on empowering rural women, none of them examined the effect of all different components of education on women’s overall empowerment, which are among the innovations of the present study and should be considered in future planning

The Effect of Dissolved Gases on the Short-Range Attractive Force between Hydrophobic Surfaces in the Absence of Nanobubble Bridging

The short-range attractive forces between hydrophobic surfaces are key factors in a wide range of areas such as protein folding, lipid self-assembly, and particle-bubble interaction such as in industrial flotation. Little is certain about the effect of dissolved (well-controlled) gases on the interaction forces, in particular in those systems where the formation of surface nanobubble bridges is suppressed. Here, we probe the short-range attractive force between hydrophobized silica surfaces in aqueous solutions with varying but well-controlled isotherms of gas solubility. The first contact approach force measurement method using AFM shows that decreasing gas solubility results in a decrease of the force magnitude as well as shortening of its range. The behavior was found to be consistent across all four aqueous systems and gas solubilities tested. Using numerical computations, we corroborate that attractive force can be adequately explained by a multilayer dispersion force model, which accounts for an interfacial gas enrichment (IGE), that results in the formation of a dense gas layer (DGL) adjacent to the hydrophobic surface. We found that the DGL on the hydrophobic surface is affected only by the concentration of dissolved gases and is independent of the salt type, used to control the gas solubility, which excludes the effect of electrical double-layer interactions on the hydrophobic force