Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Study of Muscle Cell Dedifferentiation after Skeletal Muscle Injury of Mice with a Cre-Lox System

Background: Dedifferentiation of muscle cells in the tissue of mammals has yet to be observed. One of the challenges facing the study of skeletal muscle cell dedifferentiation is the availability of a reliable model that can confidentially distinguish differentiated cell populations of myotubes and non-fused mononuclear cells, including stem cells that can coexist within the population of cells being studied. Methodology/Principal Findings: In the current study, we created a Cre/Lox-β-galactosidase system, which can specifically tag differentiated multinuclear myotubes and myotube-generated mononuclear cells based on the activation of the marker gene, β-galactosidase. By using this system in an adult mouse model, we found that β-galactosidase positive mononuclear cells were generated from β-galactosidase positive multinuclear myofibers upon muscle injury. We also demonstrated that these mononuclear cells can develop into a variety of different muscle cell lineages, i.e., myoblasts, satellite cells, and muscle derived stem cells. Conclusions/Significance: These novel findings demonstrated, for the first time, that cellular dedifferentiation of skeletal muscle cells actually occurs in mammalian skeletal muscle following traumatic injury in vivo. © 2011 Mu et al

Pattern Recognition in Macroscopic and Dermoscopic Images for Skin Lesion Diagnosis

Pattern recognition in macroscopic and dermoscopic images is a challenging task in skin lesion diagnosis. The search for better performing classification has been a relevant issue for pattern recognition in images. Hence, this work was particularly focused on skin lesion pattern recognition, especially in macroscopic and dermoscopic images. For the pattern recognition in macroscopic images, a computational approach was developed to detect skin lesion features according to the asymmetry, border, colour and texture properties, as well as to diagnose types of skin lesions, i.e., nevus, seborrheic keratosis and melanoma. In this approach, an anisotropic diffusion filter is applied to enhance the input image and an active contour model without edges is used in the segmentation of the enhanced image. Finally, a support vector machine is used to classify each feature property according to their clinical principles, and also for the classification between different types of skin lesions. For the pattern recognition in dermoscopic images, classification models based on ensemble methods and input feature manipulation are used. The feature subsets was used to manipulate the input feature and to ensure the diversity of the ensemble models. Each ensemble classification model was generated by using an optimum-path forest classifier and integrated with a majority voting strategy. The performed experiments allowed to analyse the effectiveness of the developed approaches for pattern recognition in macroscopic and dermoscopic images, with the results obtained being very promising

Perceived risk of infection and death from COVID-19 among community members of low- and middle-income countries: A cross-sectional study [version 1; peer review: awaiting peer review]

Background: Risk perceptions of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) are considered important as they impact community health behaviors. The aim of this study was to determine the perceived risk of infection and death due to COVID-19 and to assess the factors associated with such risk perceptions among community members in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) in Africa, Asia, and South America. Methods: An online cross-sectional study was conducted in 10 LMICs in Africa, Asia, and South America from February to May 2021. A questionnaire was utilized to assess the perceived risk of infection and death from COVID-19 and its plausible determinants. A logistic regression model was used to identify the factors associated with such risk perceptions. Results: A total of 1,646 responses were included in the analysis of the perceived risk of becoming infected and dying from COVID-19. Our data suggested that 36.4% of participants had a high perceived risk of COVID-19 infection, while only 22.4% had a perceived risk of dying from COVID-19. Being a woman, working in healthcare-related sectors, contracting pulmonary disease, knowing people in the immediate social environment who are or have been infected with COVID-19, as well as seeing or reading about individuals infected with COVID-19 on social media or TV were all associated with a higher perceived risk of becoming infected with COVID-19. In addition, being a woman, elderly, having heart disease and pulmonary disease, knowing people in the immediate social environment who are or have been infected with COVID-19, and seeing or reading about individuals infected with COVID-19 on social media or TV had a higher perceived risk of dying from COVID-19. Conclusions: The perceived risk of infection and death due to COVID-19 are relatively low among respondents; this suggests the need to conduct health campaigns to disseminate knowledge and information on the ongoing pandemic

Computational Methods for Pigmented Skin Lesion Classification in Images: Review and Future Trends

Skin cancer is considered as one of the most common types of cancer in several countries, and its incidence rate has increased in recent years. Melanoma cases have caused an increasing number of deaths worldwide, since this type of skin cancer is the most aggressive compared to other types. Computational methods have been developed to assist dermatologists in early diagnosis of skin cancer. An overview of the main and current computational methods that have been proposed for pattern analysis and pigmented skin lesion classification is addressed in this review. In addition, a discussion about the application of such methods, as well as future trends, is also provided. Several methods for feature extraction from both macroscopic and dermoscopic images and models for feature selection are introduced and discussed. Furthermore, classification algorithms and evaluation procedures are described, and performance results for lesion classification and pattern analysis are given

An unbiased lipid phenotyping approach to study the genetic determinants of lipids and their association with coronary heart disease risk factors

Direct infusion high-resolution mass spectrometry (DIHRMS) is a novel, high-throughput approach to rapidly and accurately profile hundreds of lipids in human serum without prior chromatography, facilitating in-depth lipid phenotyping for large epidemiological studies to reveal the detailed associations of individual lipids with coronary heart disease (CHD) risk factors. Intact lipid profiling by DIHRMS was performed on 5662 serum samples from healthy participants in the Pakistan Risk of Myocardial Infarction Study (PROMIS). We developed a novel semi-targeted peak-picking algorithm to detect mass-to-charge ratios in positive and negative ionization modes. We analyzed lipid partial correlations, assessed the association of lipid principal components with established CHD risk factors and genetic variants, and examined differences between lipids for a common genetic polymorphism. The DIHRMS method provided information on 360 lipids (including fatty acyls, glycerolipids, glycerophospholipids, sphingolipids, and sterol lipids), with a median coefficient of variation of 11.6% (range: 5.4–51.9). The lipids were highly correlated and exhibited a range of associations with clinical chemistry biomarkers and lifestyle factors. This platform can provide many novel insights into the effects of physiology and lifestyle on lipid metabolism, genetic determinants of lipids, and the relationship between individual lipids and CHD risk factors

Endocrinologic, neurologic, and visual morbidity after treatment for craniopharyngioma

Craniopharyngiomas are locally aggressive tumors which typically are focused in the sellar and suprasellar region near a number of critical neural and vascular structures mediating endocrinologic, behavioral, and visual functions. The present study aims to summarize and compare the published literature regarding morbidity resulting from treatment of craniopharyngioma. We performed a comprehensive search of the published English language literature to identify studies publishing outcome data of patients undergoing surgery for craniopharyngioma. Comparisons of the rates of endocrine, vascular, neurological, and visual complications were performed using Pearson’s chi-squared test, and covariates of interest were fitted into a multivariate logistic regression model. In our data set, 540 patients underwent surgical resection of their tumor. 138 patients received biopsy alone followed by some form of radiotherapy. Mean overall follow-up for all patients in these studies was 54 ± 1.8 months. The overall rate of new endocrinopathy for all patients undergoing surgical resection of their mass was 37% (95% CI = 33–41). Patients receiving GTR had over 2.5 times the rate of developing at least one endocrinopathy compared to patients receiving STR alone or STR + XRT (52 vs. 19 vs. 20%, χ2P < 0.00001). On multivariate analysis, GTR conferred a significant increase in the risk of endocrinopathy compared to STR + XRT (OR = 3.45, 95% CI = 2.05–5.81, P < 0.00001), after controlling for study size and the presence of significant hypothalamic involvement. There was a statistical trend towards worse visual outcomes in patients receiving XRT after STR compared to GTR or STR alone (GTR = 3.5% vs. STR 2.1% vs. STR + XRT 6.4%, P = 0.11). Given the difficulty in obtaining class 1 data regarding the treatment of this tumor, this study can serve as an estimate of expected outcomes for these patients, and guide decision making until these data are available

Epigallocatechin-3-gallate: a useful, effective and safe clinical approach for targeted prevention and individualised treatment of neurological diseases?

Neurodegenerative disorders show an increasing prevalence in a number of highly developed countries. Often, these diseases require life-long treatment mostly with drugs which are costly and mostly accompanied by more or less serious side-effects. Their heterogeneous manifestation, severity and outcome pose the need for individualised treatment options. There is an intensive search for new strategies not only for treating but also for preventing these diseases. Green tea and green tea extracts seem to be such a promising and safe alternative. However, data regarding the beneficial effects and possible underlying mechanism, specifically in clinical trials, are rare and rather controversial or non-conclusive. This review outlines the existing evidence from preclinical studies (cell and tissue cultures and animal models) and clinical trials regarding preventive and therapeutic effects of epigallcatechin-3-gallate in neurodegenerative diseases and considers antioxidative vs. pro-oxidative properties of the tea catechin important for dosage recommendations

Estimates of global, regional, and national incidence, prevalence, and mortality of HIV, 1980-2015: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015

Timely assessment of the burden of HIV/AIDS is essential for policy setting and programme evaluation. In this report from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2015 (GBD 2015), we provide national estimates of levels and trends of HIV/AIDS incidence, prevalence, coverage of antiretroviral therapy (ART), and mortality for 195 countries and territories from 1980 to 2015.For countries without high-quality vital registration data, we estimated prevalence and incidence with data from antenatal care clinics and population-based seroprevalence surveys, and with assumptions by age and sex on initial CD4 distribution at infection, CD4 progression rates (probability of progression from higher to lower CD4 cell-count category), on and off antiretroviral therapy (ART) mortality, and mortality from all other causes. Our estimation strategy links the GBD 2015 assessment of all-cause mortality and estimation of incidence and prevalence so that for each draw from the uncertainty distribution all assumptions used in each step are internally consistent. We estimated incidence, prevalence, and death with GBD versions of the Estimation and Projection Package (EPP) and Spectrum software originally developed by the Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS). We used an open-source version of EPP and recoded Spectrum for speed, and used updated assumptions from systematic reviews of the literature and GBD demographic data. For countries with high-quality vital registration data, we developed the cohort incidence bias adjustment model to estimate HIV incidence and prevalence largely from the number of deaths caused by HIV recorded in cause-of-death statistics. We corrected these statistics for garbage coding and HIV misclassification.Global HIV incidence reached its peak in 1997, at 3·3 million new infections (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 3·1-3·4 million). Annual incidence has stayed relatively constant at about 2·6 million per year (range 2·5-2·8 million) since 2005, after a period of fast decline between 1997 and 2005. The number of people living with HIV/AIDS has been steadily increasing and reached 38·8 million (95% UI 37·6-40·4 million) in 2015. At the same time, HIV/AIDS mortality has been declining at a steady pace, from a peak of 1·8 million deaths (95% UI 1·7-1·9 million) in 2005, to 1·2 million deaths (1·1-1·3 million) in 2015. We recorded substantial heterogeneity in the levels and trends of HIV/AIDS across countries. Although many countries have experienced decreases in HIV/AIDS mortality and in annual new infections, other countries have had slowdowns or increases in rates of change in annual new infections.Scale-up of ART and prevention of mother-to-child transmission has been one of the great successes of global health in the past two decades. However, in the past decade, progress in reducing new infections has been slow, development assistance for health devoted to HIV has stagnated, and resources for health in low-income countries have grown slowly. Achievement of the new ambitious goals for HIV enshrined in Sustainable Development Goal 3 and the 90-90-90 UNAIDS targets will be challenging, and will need continued efforts from governments and international agencies in the next 15 years to end AIDS by 2030.Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and National Institute of Mental Health and National Institute on Aging, National Institutes of Health

Global age-sex-specific fertility, mortality, healthy life expectancy (HALE), and population estimates in 204 countries and territories, 1950-2019: a comprehensive demographic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

BACKGROUND: Accurate and up-to-date assessment of demographic metrics is crucial for understanding a wide range of social, economic, and public health issues that affect populations worldwide. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 produced updated and comprehensive demographic assessments of the key indicators of fertility, mortality, migration, and population for 204 countries and territories and selected subnational locations from 1950 to 2019. METHODS: 8078 country-years of vital registration and sample registration data, 938 surveys, 349 censuses, and 238 other sources were identified and used to estimate age-specific fertility. Spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression (ST-GPR) was used to generate age-specific fertility rates for 5-year age groups between ages 15 and 49 years. With extensions to age groups 10-14 and 50-54 years, the total fertility rate (TFR) was then aggregated using the estimated age-specific fertility between ages 10 and 54 years. 7417 sources were used for under-5 mortality estimation and 7355 for adult mortality. ST-GPR was used to synthesise data sources after correction for known biases. Adult mortality was measured as the probability of death between ages 15 and 60 years based on vital registration, sample registration, and sibling histories, and was also estimated using ST-GPR. HIV-free life tables were then estimated using estimates of under-5 and adult mortality rates using a relational model life table system created for GBD, which closely tracks observed age-specific mortality rates from complete vital registration when available. Independent estimates of HIV-specific mortality generated by an epidemiological analysis of HIV prevalence surveys and antenatal clinic serosurveillance and other sources were incorporated into the estimates in countries with large epidemics. Annual and single-year age estimates of net migration and population for each country and territory were generated using a Bayesian hierarchical cohort component model that analysed estimated age-specific fertility and mortality rates along with 1250 censuses and 747 population registry years. We classified location-years into seven categories on the basis of the natural rate of increase in population (calculated by subtracting the crude death rate from the crude birth rate) and the net migration rate. We computed healthy life expectancy (HALE) using years lived with disability (YLDs) per capita, life tables, and standard demographic methods. Uncertainty was propagated throughout the demographic estimation process, including fertility, mortality, and population, with 1000 draw-level estimates produced for each metric. FINDINGS: The global TFR decreased from 2·72 (95% uncertainty interval [UI] 2·66-2·79) in 2000 to 2·31 (2·17-2·46) in 2019. Global annual livebirths increased from 134·5 million (131·5-137·8) in 2000 to a peak of 139·6 million (133·0-146·9) in 2016. Global livebirths then declined to 135·3 million (127·2-144·1) in 2019. Of the 204 countries and territories included in this study, in 2019, 102 had a TFR lower than 2·1, which is considered a good approximation of replacement-level fertility. All countries in sub-Saharan Africa had TFRs above replacement level in 2019 and accounted for 27·1% (95% UI 26·4-27·8) of global livebirths. Global life expectancy at birth increased from 67·2 years (95% UI 66·8-67·6) in 2000 to 73·5 years (72·8-74·3) in 2019. The total number of deaths increased from 50·7 million (49·5-51·9) in 2000 to 56·5 million (53·7-59·2) in 2019. Under-5 deaths declined from 9·6 million (9·1-10·3) in 2000 to 5·0 million (4·3-6·0) in 2019. Global population increased by 25·7%, from 6·2 billion (6·0-6·3) in 2000 to 7·7 billion (7·5-8·0) in 2019. In 2019, 34 countries had negative natural rates of increase; in 17 of these, the population declined because immigration was not sufficient to counteract the negative rate of decline. Globally, HALE increased from 58·6 years (56·1-60·8) in 2000 to 63·5 years (60·8-66·1) in 2019. HALE increased in 202 of 204 countries and territories between 2000 and 2019. INTERPRETATION: Over the past 20 years, fertility rates have been dropping steadily and life expectancy has been increasing, with few exceptions. Much of this change follows historical patterns linking social and economic determinants, such as those captured by the GBD Socio-demographic Index, with demographic outcomes. More recently, several countries have experienced a combination of low fertility and stagnating improvement in mortality rates, pushing more populations into the late stages of the demographic transition. Tracking demographic change and the emergence of new patterns will be essential for global health monitoring. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation