Prognostic model to predict postoperative acute kidney injury in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery based on a national prospective observational cohort study.

Background: Acute illness, existing co-morbidities and surgical stress response can all contribute to postoperative acute kidney injury (AKI) in patients undergoing major gastrointestinal surgery. The aim of this study was prospectively to develop a pragmatic prognostic model to stratify patients according to risk of developing AKI after major gastrointestinal surgery. Methods: This prospective multicentre cohort study included consecutive adults undergoing elective or emergency gastrointestinal resection, liver resection or stoma reversal in 2-week blocks over a continuous 3-month period. The primary outcome was the rate of AKI within 7 days of surgery. Bootstrap stability was used to select clinically plausible risk factors into the model. Internal model validation was carried out by bootstrap validation. Results: A total of 4544 patients were included across 173 centres in the UK and Ireland. The overall rate of AKI was 14·2 per cent (646 of 4544) and the 30-day mortality rate was 1·8 per cent (84 of 4544). Stage 1 AKI was significantly associated with 30-day mortality (unadjusted odds ratio 7·61, 95 per cent c.i. 4·49 to 12·90; P < 0·001), with increasing odds of death with each AKI stage. Six variables were selected for inclusion in the prognostic model: age, sex, ASA grade, preoperative estimated glomerular filtration rate, planned open surgery and preoperative use of either an angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin receptor blocker. Internal validation demonstrated good model discrimination (c-statistic 0·65). Discussion: Following major gastrointestinal surgery, AKI occurred in one in seven patients. This preoperative prognostic model identified patients at high risk of postoperative AKI. Validation in an independent data set is required to ensure generalizability

Onset dynamics of type A botulinum neurotoxin-induced paralysis

Experimental studies have demonstrated that botulinum neurotoxin serotype A (BoNT/A) causes flaccid paralysis by a multi-step mechanism. Following its binding to specific receptors at peripheral cholinergic nerve endings, BoNT/A is internalized by receptor-mediated endocytosis. Subsequently its zinc-dependent catalytic domain translocates into the neuroplasm where it cleaves a vesicle-docking protein, SNAP-25, to block neurally evoked cholinergic neurotransmission. We tested the hypothesis that mathematical models having a minimal number of reactions and reactants can simulate published data concerning the onset of paralysis of skeletal muscles induced by BoNT/A at the isolated rat neuromuscular junction (NMJ) and in other systems. Experimental data from several laboratories were simulated with two different models that were represented by sets of coupled, first-order differential equations. In this study, the 3-step sequential model developed by Simpson (J Pharmacol Exp Ther 212:16–21,1980) was used to estimate upper limits of the times during which anti-toxins and other impermeable inhibitors of BoNT/A can exert an effect. The experimentally determined binding reaction rate was verified to be consistent with published estimates for the rate constants for BoNT/A binding to and dissociating from its receptors. Because this 3-step model was not designed to reproduce temporal changes in paralysis with different toxin concentrations, a new BoNT/A species and rate (kS) were added at the beginning of the reaction sequence to create a 4-step scheme. This unbound initial species is transformed at a rate determined by kS to a free species that is capable of binding. By systematically adjusting the values of kS, the 4-step model simulated the rapid decline in NMJ function (kS ≥0.01), the less rapid onset of paralysis in mice following i.m. injections (kS = 0.001), and the slow onset of the therapeutic effects of BoNT/A (kS < 0.001) in man. This minimal modeling approach was not only verified by simulating experimental results, it helped to quantitatively define the time available for an inhibitor to have some effect (tinhib) and the relation between this time and the rate of paralysis onset. The 4-step model predicted that as the rate of paralysis becomes slower, the estimated upper limits of (tinhib) for impermeable inhibitors become longer. More generally, this modeling approach may be useful in studying the kinetics of other toxins or viruses that invade host cells by similar mechanisms, e.g., receptor-mediated endocytosis

An in vitro study comparing a peripherally inserted central catheter to a conventional central venous catheter: no difference in static and dynamic pressure transmission

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Early goal directed therapy improves survival in patients with septic shock. Central venous pressure (CVP) monitoring is essential to guide adequate resuscitation. Use of peripherally inserted central catheters (PICC) is increasing, but little data exists comparing a PICC to a conventional CVP catheter. We studied the accuracy of a novel PICC to transmit static and dynamic pressures <it>in vitro</it>.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>We designed a device to generate controlled pressures via a column of water allowing simultaneous measurements from a PICC and a standard triple lumen catheter. Digital transducers were used to obtain all pressure readings. Measurements of static pressures over a physiologic range were recorded using 5Fr and 6Fr dual lumen PICCs. Additionally, random repetitive pressure pulses were applied to the column of water to simulate physiologic intravascular pressure variations. The resultant PICC and control waveforms were recorded simultaneously.</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Six-hundred thirty measurements were made using the 5 Fr and 6 Fr PICCs. The average bias determined by Bland-Altman plot was 0.043 mmHg for 5 Fr PICC and 0.023 mmHg for 6 Fr PICC with a difference range of 1.0 to -1.0. The correlation coefficient for both catheters was 1.0 (p-value < 0.001). Dynamic pressure waveforms plotted simultaneously between PICC and control revealed equal peaks and troughs.</p> <p>Conclusion</p> <p><it>In vitro</it>, no static or dynamic pressure differences were found between the PICC and a conventional CVP catheter. Clinical studies are required to assess whether the novel PICC has bedside equivalence to conventional catheters when measuring central venous pressures.</p

Pilot study of a ketogenic diet in bipolar disorder: a process evaluation

Background: Bipolar disorder is a serious mental illness, which requires new strategies for prevention and management. Recent evidence suggests that a ketogenic diet may be an effective intervention. This research aimed to explore the feasibility and acceptability of a ketogenic diet intervention for bipolar disorder, fidelity to its behavioural components and the experiences of the participants and research clinicians involved.Methods: A mixed-methods process evaluation was conducted. Semi-structured telephone interviews were carried out with 15 participants 1–2 months after completing a 6–8 week modified ketogenic diet intervention, and 4 research clinicians from the study team following the completion of data collection. Data were thematically analysed. Fidelity checklists completed by research dietitians were analysed using descriptive count and percentage statistics. Findings are reported post-hoc, following the analysis and publication of the main pilot study findings. Reporting was guided by the COREQ checklist.Results: Five themes were identified in the qualitative data: (1) ‘Encouraging entry and supporting exit’ (e.g. recognising and managing participants’ varied motives and expectations, including around weight loss and symptom alleviation); (2) ‘Challenging but potentially transformational,’ which reflects that while it can be difficult to initiate and maintain a ketogenic diet day-to-day, many participants perceived physical and psychological benefits (e.g. significant weight loss, mood stability and enhanced ability to focus); (3) ‘Intervention facilitators,’ including a range of behavioural (e.g. goal setting), social (e.g. family and dietitians) and technological (e.g. apps for monitoring) support mechanisms; (4) ‘Intervention barriers’ (e.g. dietary preferences, concerns about the diet and its impact, the testing burden and capacity of the delivery team); and (5) ‘The wider context’ (e.g. the cost of living and sociocultural expectations) was a crucial factor explaining differential experiences. Overall, descriptive analyses indicated moderate-to-good fidelity to the behaviour change components of the study.Conclusion: We provide novel insight into the experiences of people living with bipolar disorder initiating and following a ketogenic diet, as well as those of research clinicians who support the intervention. Future trials may benefit from increased clinical research capacity, better-defined entry and exit routes, additional interpersonal support, and greater understanding of how social and societal factors impact participation.Trial registration: Study registration number: ISRCTN61613198 (02/03/22)

On the viability of regular black holes

The evaporation of black holes raises a number of conceptual issues, most of them related to the final stages of evaporation, where the interplay between the central singularity and Hawking radiation cannot be ignored. Regular models of black holes replace the central singularity with a nonsingular spacetime region, in which an effective classical geometric description is available. It has been argued that these models provide an effective, but complete, description of the evaporation of black holes at all times up to their eventual disappearance. However, here we point out that known models fail to be self-consistent: the regular core is exponentially unstable against perturbations with a finite timescale, while the evaporation time is infinite, therefore making the instability impossible to prevent. We also discuss how to overcome these difficulties, highlighting that this can be done only at the price of accepting that these models cannot be fully predictive regarding the final stages of evaporation

A pilot study of a ketogenic diet in bipolar disorder: clinical, metabolic and magnetic resonance spectroscopy findings

Background: Preliminary evidence suggests that a ketogenic diet may be effective for bipolar disorder. Aims: To assess the impact of a ketogenic diet in bipolar disorder on clinical, metabolic and magnetic resonance spectroscopy outcomes. Method: Euthymic individuals with bipolar disorder (N = 27) were recruited to a 6- to 8-week single-arm open pilot study of a modified ketogenic diet. Clinical, metabolic and MRS measures were assessed before and after the intervention. Results: Of 27 recruited participants, 26 began and 20 completed the ketogenic diet. For participants completing the intervention, mean body weight fell by 4.2 kg (P &lt; 0.001), mean body mass index fell by 1.5 kg/m2 (P &lt; 0.001) and mean systolic blood pressure fell by 7.4 mmHg (P &lt; 0.041). The euthymic participants had average baseline and follow-up assessments consistent with them being in the euthymic range with no statistically significant changes in Affective Lability Scale-18, Beck Depression Inventory and Young Mania Rating Scale. In participants providing reliable daily ecological momentary assessment data (n = 14), there was a positive correlation between daily ketone levels and self-rated mood (r = 0.21, P &lt; 0.001) and energy (r = 0.19 P &lt; 0.001), and an inverse correlation between ketone levels and both impulsivity (r = −0.30, P &lt; 0.001) and anxiety (r = −0.19, P &lt; 0.001). From the MRS measurements, brain glutamate plus glutamine concentration decreased by 11.6% in the anterior cingulate cortex (P = 0.025) and fell by 13.6% in the posterior cingulate cortex (P = &lt;0.001). Conclusions: These findings suggest that a ketogenic diet may be clinically useful in bipolar disorder, for both mental health and metabolic outcomes. Replication and randomised controlled trials are now warranted.Bipolar disorderketogenic dietketosismagnetic resonance spectroscopymetabolic psychiatr

Methylation profiling of twenty promoter-CpG islands of genes which may contribute to hepatocellular carcinogenesis

BACKGROUND: Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) presents one of the major health threats in China today. A better understanding of the molecular genetics underlying malignant transformation of hepatocytes is critical to success in the battle against this disease. The methylation state of C5 of the cytosine in the CpG di-nucleotide that is enriched within or near the promoter region of over 50 % of the polymerase II genes has a drastic effect on transcription of these genes. Changes in the methylation profile of the promoters represent an alternative to genetic lesions as causative factors for the tumor-specific aberrant expression of the genes. METHODS: We have used the methylation specific PCR method in conjunction with DNA sequencing to assess the methylation state of the promoter CpG islands of twenty genes. Aberrant expression of these genes have been attributed to the abnormal methylation profile of the corresponding promoter CpG islands in human tumors. RESULTS: While the following sixteen genes remained the unmethylated in all tumor and normal tissues: CDH1, APAF1, hMLH1, BRCA1, hTERC, VHL, RARβ, TIMP3, DAPK1, SURVIVIN, p14(ARF), RB1, p15(INK4b), APC, RASSF1c and PTEN, varying degrees of tumor specific hypermethylation were associated with the p16(INK4a ), RASSF1a, CASP8 and CDH13 genes. For instance, the p16(INK4a )was highly methylated in HCC (17/29, 58.6%) and less significantly methylated in non-cancerous tissue (4/29. 13.79%). The RASSF1a was fully methylated in all tumor tissues (29/29, 100%), and less frequently methylated in corresponding non-cancerous tissue (24/29, 82.75%). CONCLUSIONS: Furthermore, co-existence of methylated with unmethylated DNA in some cases suggested that both genetic and epigenetic (CpG methylation) mechanisms may act in concert to inactivate the p16(INK4a )and RASSF1a in HCC. Finally, we found a significant association of cirrhosis with hypermethylation of the p16(INK4a )and hypomethylation of the CDH13 genes. For the first time, the survey was carried out on such an extent that it would not only provide new insights into the molecular mechanisms underscoring the aberrant expression of the genes in this study in HCC, but also offer essential information required for a good methylation-based diagnosis of HCC

Snake Bite in South Asia: A Review

Snake bite is one of the most neglected public health issues in poor rural communities living in the tropics. Because of serious misreporting, the true worldwide burden of snake bite is not known. South Asia is the world's most heavily affected region, due to its high population density, widespread agricultural activities, numerous venomous snake species and lack of functional snake bite control programs. Despite increasing knowledge of snake venoms' composition and mode of action, good understanding of clinical features of envenoming and sufficient production of antivenom by Indian manufacturers, snake bite management remains unsatisfactory in this region. Field diagnostic tests for snake species identification do not exist and treatment mainly relies on the administration of antivenoms that do not cover all of the important venomous snakes of the region. Care-givers need better training and supervision, and national guidelines should be fed by evidence-based data generated by well-designed research studies. Poorly informed rural populations often apply inappropriate first-aid measures and vital time is lost before the victim is transported to a treatment centre, where cost of treatment can constitute an additional hurdle. The deficiency of snake bite management in South Asia is multi-causal and requires joint collaborative efforts from researchers, antivenom manufacturers, policy makers, public health authorities and international funders