Climate change and crop exposure to adverse weather: changes to frost risk and grapevine flowering conditions

Open Access Article© 2015 Mosedale et al.The cultivation of grapevines in the UK and many other cool climate regions is expected to benefit from the higher growing season temperatures predicted under future climate scenarios. Yet the effects of climate change on the risk of adverse weather conditions or events at key stages of crop development are not always captured by aggregated measures of seasonal or yearly climates, or by downscaling techniques that assume climate variability will remain unchanged under future scenarios. Using fine resolution projections of future climate scenarios for south-west England and grapevine phenology models we explore how risks to cool-climate vineyard harvests vary under future climate conditions. Results indicate that the risk of adverse conditions during flowering declines under all future climate scenarios. In contrast, the risk of late spring frosts increases under many future climate projections due to advancement in the timing of budbreak. Estimates of frost risk, however, were highly sensitive to the choice of phenology model, and future frost exposure declined when budbreak was calculated using models that included a winter chill requirement for dormancy break. The lack of robust phenological models is a major source of uncertainty concerning the impacts of future climate change on the development of cool-climate viticulture in historically marginal climatic regions.European Social FundNatural Environment Research Council (NERC

Old concepts, new challenges: adapting landscape-scale conservation to the twenty-first century

This is the final version of the article. Available from Springer Verlag via the DOI in this record.Landscape-scale approaches to conservation stem largely from the classic ideas of reserve design: encouraging bigger and more sites, enhancing connectivity among sites, and improving habitat quality. Trade-offs are imposed between these four strategies by the limited resources and opportunities available for conservation programmes, including the establishment and management of protected areas, and wildlife-friendly farming and forestry. Although debate regarding trade-offs between the size, number, connectivity and quality of protected areas was prevalent in the 1970–1990s, the implications of the same trade-offs for ongoing conservation responses to threats from accelerating environmental change have rarely been addressed. Here, we reassess the implications of reserve design theory for landscape-scale conservation, and present a blueprint to help practitioners to prioritise among the four strategies. We consider the new perspectives placed on landscape-scale conservation programmes by twenty-first century pressures including climate change, invasive species and the need to marry food security with biodiversity conservation. A framework of the situations under which available theory and evidence recommend that each of the four strategies be prioritized is provided, seeking to increase the clarity required for urgent conservation decision-making.L. Donaldson was supported by a Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) CASE studentship (Grant Number NE/L501669/1) in partnership with the Royal Society for the Protection of Birds (RSPB)

Climate change impacts and adaptive strategies: lessons from the grapevine

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this recordThe cultivation of grapevines for winemaking, known as viticulture, is widely cited as a climate-sensitive agricultural system that has been used as an indicator of both historic and contemporary climate change. Numerous studies have questioned the viability of major viticulture regions under future climate projections. We review the methods used to study the impacts of climate change on viticulture in the light of what is known about the effects of climate and weather on the yields and quality of vineyard harvests. Many potential impacts of climate change on viticulture, particularly those associated with a change in climate variability or seasonal weather patterns, are rarely captured. Key biophysical characteristics of viticulture are often unaccounted for, including the variability of grapevine phenology and the exploitation of microclimatic niches that permit successful cultivation under suboptimal macroclimatic conditions. We consider how these same biophysical characteristics permit a variety of strategies by which viticulture can adapt to changing climatic conditions. The ability to realize these strategies, however, is affected by uneven exposure to risks across the winemaking sector, and the evolving capacity for decision-making within and across organizational boundaries. The role grape provenance plays in shaping perceptions of wine value and quality illustrates how conflicts of interest influence decisions about adaptive strategies within the industry. We conclude by considering what lessons can be taken from viticulture for studies of climate change impacts and the capacity for adaptation in other agricultural and natural systems

Environmental Costs of Government-Sponsored Agrarian Settlements in Brazilian Amazonia

Brazil has presided over the most comprehensive agrarian reform frontier colonization program on Earth, in which ~1.2 million settlers have been translocated by successive governments since the 1970's, mostly into forested hinterlands of Brazilian Amazonia. These settlements encompass 5.3% of this ~5 million km2 region, but have contributed with 13.5% of all land conversion into agropastoral land uses. The Brazilian Federal Agrarian Agency (INCRA) has repeatedly claimed that deforestation in these areas largely predates the sanctioned arrival of new settlers. Here, we quantify rates of natural vegetation conversion across 1911 agrarian settlements allocated to 568 Amazonian counties and compare fire incidence and deforestation rates before and after the official occupation of settlements by migrant farmers. The timing and spatial distribution of deforestation and fires in our analysis provides irrefutable chronological and spatially explicit evidence of agropastoral conversion both inside and immediately outside agrarian settlements over the last decade. Deforestation rates are strongly related to local human population density and road access to regional markets. Agrarian settlements consistently accelerated rates of deforestation and fires, compared to neighboring areas outside settlements, but within the same counties. Relocated smallholders allocated to forest areas undoubtedly operate as pivotal agents of deforestation, and most of the forest clearance occurs in the aftermath of government-induced migration

Constraints on profit income distribution and production efficiency in private ownership economies with Ramsey taxation

Author's draft published as discussion paper by University of Exeter Department of Economics. The original publication is available at www.springerlink.comIn economies with Ramsey taxation, decreasing returns to scale, and private ownership, we show that second-best production efficiency is desirable when the grouping of private firms induced by the profit taxation power of the government is at least as fine as the grouping of firms induced by the institutional rules of profit distribution in the economy. The classic results of Dasgupta and Stiglitz [1972] (of firm-specific profit taxation) and Diamond and Mirrlees [1971] and Guesnerie [1995] (of uniform one-hundred percent profit taxation) follow as special cases of our model. Moreover, second-best analysis shows that optimal profit taxation is a substitute for optimal intermediate input taxation. In smooth economies, proportional, lump-sum, and affine modes of profit taxation are equivalent. We rework Mirrlees [1972] counterexample, which is posed in the context of a non-smooth economy, to show that second-best production efficiency continues to remain desirable under an affine structure of profit taxation

Intimate partner homicide in England and Wales 2011-2013: pathways to prediction from multi-agency Domestic Homicide Reviews

Research Question What pathways to more accurate prediction of intimate partner homicide (IPH) can be found by reviewing two years of official Domestic Homicide Reviews in England and Wales? Data This study conducted a detailed review of investigative source material, police database information and the official independent author reviews of the 188 cases of intimate partner homicide recorded in England and Wales between April 2011 and March 2013. Methods Descriptive analytical techniques were used to explore the prevalence of various characteristics of victims, offenders and relationships in these cases, with special attention given to offender suicide ideation as a precursor to the crimes. Findings Offenders in these cases were 86% male, with high rates of both chronic substance abuse (61%) and prior reported offending (50%) against their homicide victim. The most disproportionately prevalent characteristic appears to be that 40% of the male offenders were known by someone, but often not to police, as suffering suicidal ideation, self-harm or attempted suicides. The prevalence of that marker, while not measureable in the general population, is over four times higher than the pre-offence police indications of suicidal tendencies across 80 domestic homicides in Leicestershire (Button et al., 2017). Conclusions It is plausible that many more intimate partner homicides might be accurately predicted, and perhaps prevented, with more public investment in obtaining data on suicidal indicators and more proactive treatment of domestic abuse offenders known to suffer suicidal tendencies.Non

Microclima: An R package for modelling meso- and microclimate

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available on open access from Wiley via the DOI in this record1.Climate is of fundamental importance to the ecology and evolution of all organisms. However, studies of climate–organism interactions usually rely on climate variables interpolated from widely‐spaced measurements or modelled at coarse resolution, whereas the conditions experienced by many organisms vary over scales from millimetres to metres. 2.To help bridge this mismatch in scale, we present models of the mechanistic processes that govern fine‐scale variation in near‐ground air temperature. The models are flexible (enabling application to a wide variety of locations and contexts), can be run using freely available data and are provided as an R package. 3.We apply a mesoclimate to the Lizard Peninsula in Cornwall to provide hourly estimates of air temperature at resolution of 100m for the period Jan‐Dec 2010. A microclimate model is then applied to a one km2 region of the Lizard Peninsula, Caerthillean Valley (49.969 ºN, 5.215 ºW), to provide hourly estimates of near‐ground air temperature at resolution of one m2 during May 2010. 4.Our models reveal substantial spatial variation in near‐ground temperatures, driven principally by variation in topography and, at the microscale, by vegetation structure. At the meso‐scale, hours of exposure to air temperatures at one m height in excess of 25 °C ranged from 23 to 158 hours, despite this temperature never being recorded by the weather station within the study area during the study period. At the micro‐scale, steep south‐facing slopes with minimal vegetation cover experienced temperatures in excess of 40 °C. 5.The microclima package is flexible and efficient and provides an accurate means of modelling fine‐scale variation in temperature. We also provide functions that facilitate users to obtain and process a variety of freely available datasets needed to drive the model.This research was part-funded by the European Social Fund Project 09099NCO5 and NERC NE/P016790/

Predicting future climate at high spatial and temporal resolution

This is the author accepted manuscript. The final version is available from Wiley via the DOI in this record Most studies on the biological effects of future climatic changes rely on seasonally aggregated, coarse-resolution data. Such data mask spatial and temporal variability in microclimate driven by terrain, wind and vegetation, and ultimately bear little resemblance to the conditions that organisms experience in the wild. Here, I present the methods for providing fine-grained, hourly and daily estimates of current and future temperature and soil moisture over decadal timescales. Observed climate data and spatially coherent probabilistic projections of daily future weather were disaggregated to hourly and used to drive empirically calibrated physical models of thermal and hydrological microclimates. Mesoclimatic effects (cold-air drainage, coastal exposure and elevation) were determined from the coarse-resolution climate surfaces using thin-plate spline models with coastal exposure and elevation as predictors. Differences between micro and mesoclimate temperatures were determined from terrain, vegetation and ground properties using energy balance equations. Soil moisture was computed in a thin upper layer and an underlying deeper layer, and the exchange of water between these layers was calculated using the van Genuchten equation. Code for processing the data and running the models is provided as a series of R packages. The methods were applied to the Lizard Peninsula, United Kingdom, to provide hourly estimates of temperature (100 m grid resolution over entire area, 1 m for a selected area) for the periods 1983–2017 and 2041–2049. Results indicated that there is a fine-resolution variability in climatic changes, driven primarily by interactions between landscape features and decadal trends in weather conditions. High-temporal resolution extremes in conditions under future climate change were predicted to be considerably less novel than the extremes estimated using seasonally aggregated variables. The study highlights the need to more accurately estimate the future climatic conditions experienced by organisms and equips biologists with the means to do so.Met OfficeEuropean Regional Development Fund (ERDF