Storyline approach to the construction of regional climate change information

Climate science seeks to make statements of confidence about what has happened, and what will happen (conditional on scenario). The approach is effective for the global, thermodynamic aspects of climate change, but is ineffective when it comes to aspects of climate change related to atmospheric circulation, which are highly uncertain. Yet atmospheric circulation strongly mediates climate impacts at the regional scale. In this way the confidence framework, which focuses on avoiding Type 1 errors (false alarms), raises the prospect of committing Type 2 errors (missed warnings). This has ethical implications. At the regional scale, however, where information on climate change has to be combined with many other factors affecting vulnerability and exposure — most of which are highly uncertain — the societally relevant question is not “What will happen?” but rather “What is the impact of particular actions under an uncertain regional climate change?” This re-framing of the question can cut the Gordian Knot of regional climate-change information, provided one distinguishes between epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties — something that is generally not done in climate projections. It is argued that the storyline approach to climate change — the identification of physically self-consistent, plausible pathways — has the potential to accomplish precisely this

Projected changes in the Asian-Australian monsoon region in 1.5°C and 2.0°C global-warming scenarios

In light of the Paris Agreement, it is essential to identify regional impacts of half a degree additional global warming to inform climate adaptation and mitigation strategies. We investigate the effects of 1.5°C and 2.0°C global warming above pre-industrial conditions, relative to present day (2006-2015), over the Asian-Australian monsoon region (AAMR) using five models from the Half a degree Additional warming, Prognosis and Projected Impacts (HAPPI) project. There is considerable inter-model variability in projected changes to mean climate and extreme events in 2.0°C and 1.5°C scenarios. There is high confidence in projected increases to mean and extreme surface temperatures over AAMR, as well as more-frequent persistent daily temperature extremes over East Asia, Australia and northern India with an additional 0.5°C warming, which are likely to occur. Mean and extreme monsoon precipitation amplify over AAMR, except over Australia at 1.5°C where there is uncertainty in the sign of the change. Persistent daily extreme precipitation events are likely to become more frequent over parts of East Asia and India with an additional 0.5°C warming. There is lower confidence in projections of precipitation change than in projections of surface temperature change. These results highlight the benefits of limiting the global-mean temperature change to 1.5°C above pre-industrial, as the severity of the above effects increases with an extra 0.5°C warming

Implications of "peak oil" for atmospheric CO2 and climate

Unconstrained CO2 emission from fossil fuel burning has been the dominant cause of observed anthropogenic global warming. The amounts of "proven" and potential fossil fuel reserves are uncertain and debated. Regardless of the true values, society has flexibility in the degree to which it chooses to exploit these reserves, especially unconventional fossil fuels and those located in extreme or pristine environments. If conventional oil production peaks within the next few decades, it may have a large effect on future atmospheric CO2 and climate change, depending upon subsequent energy choices. Assuming that proven oil and gas reserves do not greatly exceed estimates of the Energy Information Administration, and recent trends are toward lower estimates, we show that it is feasible to keep atmospheric CO2 from exceeding about 450 ppm by 2100, provided that emissions from coal, unconventional fossil fuels, and land use are constrained. Coal-fired power plants without sequestration must be phased out before mid-century to achieve this CO2 limit. It is also important to "stretch" conventional oil reserves via energy conservation and efficiency, thus averting strong pressures to extract liquid fuels from coal or unconventional fossil fuels while clean technologies are being developed for the era "beyond fossil fuels". We argue that a rising price on carbon emissions is needed to discourage conversion of the vast fossil resources into usable reserves, and to keep CO2 beneath the 450 ppm ceiling.Comment: (22 pages, 7 figures; final version accepted by Global Biogeochemical Cycles

Assessing availability and greenhouse gas emissions of lignocellulosic biomass feedstock supply – case study for a catchment in England

© 2019 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.Feedstocks from lignocellulosic biomass (LCB) include crop residues and dedicated per¬ennial biomass crops. The latter are often considered superior in terms of climate change mitigation potential. Uncertainty remains over their availability as feedstocks for biomass provision and the net greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) during crop production. Our objective was to assess the optimal land allocation to wheat and Miscanthus in a specific case study located in England, to increase bio¬mass availability, improve the carbon balance (and reduce the consequent GHG emissions), and mini¬mally constrain grain production losses from wheat. Using soil and climate variables for a catchment in east England, biomass yields and direct nitrogen emissions were simulated with validated process-based models. A ‘Field to up-stream factory gate’ life-cycle assessment was conducted to estimate indirect management-related GHG emissions. Results show that feedstock supply from wheat straw can be supplemented beneficially with LCB from Miscanthus grown on selected low-quality soils. In our study, 8% of the less productive arable land area was dedicated to Miscanthus, increasing total LCB provision by about 150%, with a 52% reduction in GHG emission per ton LCB delivered and only a minor effect on wheat grain production (−3%). In conclusion, even without considering the likely carbon sequestration in impoverished soils, agriculture should embrace the opportunities to provide the bioeconomy with LCB from dedicated, perennial crops.Peer reviewe

Wheat seed weight and quality differ temporally in sensitivity to warm or cool conditions during seed development and maturation

Background and Aims Short periods of extreme temperature may affect wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) seed weight, but also quality. Temporal sensitivity to extreme temperature during seed development and maturation was investigated. Methods Plants of cv. Tybalt grown at ambient temperature were moved to growth cabinets at 29/20°C or 34/20°C (2010), or 15/10°C or 34/20°C (2011), for successive 7-d periods from 7 DAA (days after anthesis) onwards, and also 7-65 DAA in 2011. Seed samples were harvested serially and moisture content, weight, ability to germinate, subsequent longevity in air-dry storage, and bread-making quality determined. Key Results High temperature (34/20°C) reduced final seed weight, with greatest temporal sensitivity at 7-14 or 14-21 DAA. Several aspects of bread-making quality were also most sensitive to high temperature then, but whereas protein quality decreased protein and sulphur concentrations improved. Early exposure to high temperature provided earlier development of ability to germinate and tolerate desiccation, but had little effect on maximum germination capacity. All treatments at 15/10°C resulted in ability to germinate declining between 58 and 65 DAA. Early exposure to high temperature hastened improvement in seed storage longevity, but the subsequent decline in late maturation preceded that in the control. Long (7-65 DAA) exposure to 15/10°C disrupted the development of seed longevity, with no improvement after seed filling ended. Longevity improved during maturation drying in other treatments. Early (7-14 DAA) exposure to high reduced and low temperature increased subsequent longevity at harvest maturity, whereas late (35- or 42-49 DAA) exposure to high increased and low temperature reduced it. Conclusions Temporal sensitivity to extreme temperature was detected. It varied considerably amongst the contrasting seed variables investigated. Subsequent seed longevity at harvest maturity responded negatively to temperature early in development, but positively later in development and throughout maturation

Quantifying the impact of climate change on drought regimes using the Standardised Precipitation Index

The study presents a methodology to characterise short- or long-term drought events, designed to aid understanding of how climate change may affect future risk. An indicator of drought magnitude, combining parameters of duration, spatial extent and intensity, is presented based on the Standardised Precipitation Index (SPI). The SPI is applied to observed (1955–2003) and projected (2003–2050) precipitation data from the Community Integrated Assessment System (CIAS). Potential consequences of climate change on drought regimes in Australia, Brazil, China, Ethiopia, India, Spain, Portugal and the USA are quantified. Uncertainty is assessed by emulating a range of global circulation models to project climate change. Further uncertainty is addressed through the use of a high-emission scenario and a low stabilisation scenario representing a stringent mitigation policy. Climate change was shown to have a larger effect on the duration and magnitude of long-term droughts, and Australia, Brazil, Spain, Portugal and the USA were highlighted as being particularly vulnerable to multi-year drought events, with the potential for drought magnitude to exceed historical experience. The study highlights the characteristics of drought which may be more sensitive under climate change. For example, on average, short-term droughts in the USA do not become more intense but are projected to increase in duration. Importantly, the stringent mitigation scenario had limited effect on drought regimes in the first half of the twenty-first century, showing that adaptation to drought risk will be vital in these regions

Data sources for rescuing the rich heritage of Mediterranean historical surface climate data

10.1002/gdj3.4Availability of long-term and high-quality instrumental climate records is still insufficient and the rich heritage of meteorological surface observations is largely underexploited in many parts of the world. This is particularly striking over the Greater Mediterranean region (GMR), where meteorological observations have been taken since the 18th century at some locations. The lack of high quality and long series here is despite this region being regarded as a climate change hot spot. This article mainly assesses relevant sources containing Mediterranean historical climate data and metadata either from online repositories worldwide or physical archives, with the emphasis here on the rich holdings kept at French archives. A particular case study is the data rescue (DARE) program undertaken by the Algerian National Meteorological Service, as well as some of the past and ongoing projects and initiatives aimed at enhancing climate data availability and accessibility over the GMR. Our findings point to the high potential for undertaking DARE activities over the GMR and the need for bringing longer and higher quality climate time series to support a diverse number of scientific and technical assessments and policies