A frequentist framework of inductive reasoning

Reacting against the limitation of statistics to decision procedures, R. A. Fisher proposed for inductive reasoning the use of the fiducial distribution, a parameter-space distribution of epistemological probability transferred directly from limiting relative frequencies rather than computed according to the Bayes update rule. The proposal is developed as follows using the confidence measure of a scalar parameter of interest. (With the restriction to one-dimensional parameter space, a confidence measure is essentially a fiducial probability distribution free of complications involving ancillary statistics.) A betting game establishes a sense in which confidence measures are the only reliable inferential probability distributions. The equality between the probabilities encoded in a confidence measure and the coverage rates of the corresponding confidence intervals ensures that the measure's rule for assigning confidence levels to hypotheses is uniquely minimax in the game. Although a confidence measure can be computed without any prior distribution, previous knowledge can be incorporated into confidence-based reasoning. To adjust a p-value or confidence interval for prior information, the confidence measure from the observed data can be combined with one or more independent confidence measures representing previous agent opinion. (The former confidence measure may correspond to a posterior distribution with frequentist matching of coverage probabilities.) The representation of subjective knowledge in terms of confidence measures rather than prior probability distributions preserves approximate frequentist validity.Comment: major revisio

Differential spatial repositioning of activated genes in Biomphalaria glabrata snails infected with Schistosoma mansoni

Copyright @ 2014 Arican-Goktas et al. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.This article has been made available through the Brunel Open Access Publishing Fund.Schistosomiasis is an infectious disease infecting mammals as the definitive host and fresh water snails as the intermediate host. Understanding the molecular and biochemical relationship between the causative schistosome parasite and its hosts will be key to understanding and ultimately treating and/or eradicating the disease. There is increasing evidence that pathogens that have co-evolved with their hosts can manipulate their hosts' behaviour at various levels to augment an infection. Bacteria, for example, can induce beneficial chromatin remodelling of the host genome. We have previously shown in vitro that Biomphalaria glabrata embryonic cells co-cultured with schistosome miracidia display genes changing their nuclear location and becoming up-regulated. This also happens in vivo in live intact snails, where early exposure to miracidia also elicits non-random repositioning of genes. We reveal differences in the nuclear repositioning between the response of parasite susceptible snails as compared to resistant snails and with normal or live, attenuated parasites. Interestingly, the stress response gene heat shock protein (Hsp) 70 is only repositioned and then up-regulated in susceptible snails with the normal parasite. This movement and change in gene expression seems to be controlled by the parasite. Other differences in the behaviour of genes support the view that some genes are responding to tissue damage, for example the ferritin genes move and are up-regulated whether the snails are either susceptible or resistant and upon exposure to either normal or attenuated parasite. This is the first time host genome reorganisation has been seen in a parasitic host and only the second time for any pathogen. We believe that the parasite elicits a spatio-epigenetic reorganisation of the host genome to induce favourable gene expression for itself and this might represent a fundamental mechanism present in the human host infected with schistosome cercariae as well as in other host-pathogen relationships.NIH and Sandler Borroughs Wellcome Travel Fellowshi

Zircon ages in granulite facies rocks: decoupling from geochemistry above 850 °C?

Granulite facies rocks frequently show a large spread in their zircon ages, the interpretation of which raises questions: Has the isotopic system been disturbed? By what process(es) and conditions did the alteration occur? Can the dates be regarded as real ages, reflecting several growth episodes? Furthermore, under some circumstances of (ultra-)high-temperature metamorphism, decoupling of zircon U–Pb dates from their trace element geochemistry has been reported. Understanding these processes is crucial to help interpret such dates in the context of the P–T history. Our study presents evidence for decoupling in zircon from the highest grade metapelites (> 850 °C) taken along a continuous high-temperature metamorphic field gradient in the Ivrea Zone (NW Italy). These rocks represent a well-characterised segment of Permian lower continental crust with a protracted high-temperature history. Cathodoluminescence images reveal that zircons in the mid-amphibolite facies preserve mainly detrital cores with narrow overgrowths. In the upper amphibolite and granulite facies, preserved detrital cores decrease and metamorphic zircon increases in quantity. Across all samples we document a sequence of four rim generations based on textures. U–Pb dates, Th/U ratios and Ti-in-zircon concentrations show an essentially continuous evolution with increasing metamorphic grade, except in the samples from the granulite facies, which display significant scatter in age and chemistry. We associate the observed decoupling of zircon systematics in high-grade non-metamict zircon with disturbance processes related to differences in behaviour of non-formula elements (i.e. Pb, Th, U, Ti) at high-temperature conditions, notably differences in compatibility within the crystal structure

Discovery of a novel biomarker in the urine in women with endometriosis

Objective: To investigate whether proteins secreted in urine differ between women with and without endometriosis. Design: Laboratory study using human urine. Setting: University-based laboratory. Patient(s): Women with and without endometriosis undergoing laparoscopy, hysteroscopy and curettage. Intervention(s): Urine collection from women with and without endometriosis. Main Outcome Measure(s): Proteomic techniques and mass spectrometry to identify proteins secreted in the urine of women with and without endometriosis. Result(s): On average, 133 proteins were significantly different between women with and without endometriosis. Cytokeratin-19 was highly up-regulated in the urine of women with endometriosis. Conclusion(s): Cytokeratin-19 may be a valuable urinary biomarker for endometriosis. © 2011 American Society for Reproductive Medicine, Published by Elsevier Inc

Perceived risk, anxiety, and behavioural responses of the general public during the early phase of the Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the Netherlands: Results of three consecutive online surveys

Background: Research into risk perception and behavioural responses in case of emerging infectious diseases is still relatively new. The aim of this study was to examine perceptions and behaviours of the general public during the early phase of the Influenza A (H1N1) pandemic in the Netherlands. Methods. Two cross-sectional and one follow-up online survey (survey 1, 30 April-4 May; survey 2, 15-19 June; survey 3, 11-20 August 2009). Adults aged 18 years and above participating in a representative Internet panel were invited (survey 1, n = 456; survey 2, n = 478; follow-up survey 3, n = 934). Main outcome measures were 1) time trends in risk perception, feelings of anxiety, and behavioural responses (survey 1-3) and 2) factors associated with taking preventive measures and strong intention to comply with government-advised preventive measures in the future (survey 3). Results. Between May and August 2009, the level of knowledge regarding Influenza A (H1N1) increased, while perceived severity of the new flu, perceived self-efficacy, and intention to comply with preventive measures decreased. The perceived reliability of information from the government decreased from May to August (62% versus 45%). Feelings of anxiety decreased from May to June, and remained stable afterwards. From June to August 2009, perceived vulnerability increased and more respondents took preventive measures (14% versus 38%). Taking preventive measures was associated with no children in the household, high anxiety, high self-efficacy, more agreement with statements on avoidance, and paying much attention to media information regarding Influenza A (H1N1). Having a strong intention to comply with government-advised preventive measures in the future was associated with higher age, high perceived severity, high anxiety, high perceived efficacy of measures, high self-efficacy, and finding governmental information to be reliable. Conclusions. Decreasing tren

Redrawing Boundaries: WITNESS and the Politics of Citizen Videos

This article engages with several pressing issues revolving around ‘citizen witnessing’, with specific reference to the human rights advocacy group, WITNESS. In the course of tracing WITNESS’ development over the past two decades, it offers an evaluative assessment of the challenges its members have faced in promoting a grassroots, citizen-centred approach to video reportage. More specifically, this advocacy is informed by an ethical commitment to advancing human rights causes by equipping citizens in crisis situations with cameras, and the training to use them, so that they might bear witness to the plight of others. In so doing, this article argues, WITNESS offers a tactical reformulation of the guiding tenets of peace journalism, one with considerable potential for recasting anew its strategic priorities

Codes of Fair Competition: The National Recovery Act, 1933-1935, and the Women’s Dress Manufacturing Industry

Controversial issues prevalent in today’s ready-to-wear apparel industry include the right of workers to join unions, the proliferation of sweatshops and sweatshop conditions, and design piracy. The idea of forming codes of conduct to establish criteria of ethical business practices is not new to the apparel industry. Indeed, the women’s dress manufacturing industry discussed and debated codes of fair competition under the New Deal Policies of the National Recovery Act (NRA) of 1933 to 1935. Primary sources for this study included governmental hearings in the establishment of the NRA Dress Code, The New York Times, Women’s Wear Daily, and the Journal of the Patent Office Society. The history of the NRA codes implemented in the U.S. women’s ready-to-wear apparel industry provides an important case study highlighting the difficulties and complexities of creating and achieving industry-wide standard practices through self-regulation. The failure of the NRA demonstrates that even with the joint cooperation of industry, labor, and consumer groups and the backing of the force of law, codes of fair competition proved impossible to enforce

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Acquired hemophilia as the cause of life-threatening hemorrhage in a 94-year-old man: a case report

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Introduction</p> <p>Acquired factor VIII deficiency is a rare entity that can lead to severe and life-threatening bleeding. We describe a case of severe bleeding from the tongue secondary to acquired hemophilia and discuss treatment options, including aminocaproic acid and recombinant factor VIII, which have not been widely reported in the literature for the management of such patients.</p> <p>Case presentation</p> <p>A 94-year-old Caucasian man presented to our institution with diffuse bruising and extensive bleeding from the tongue secondary to mechanical trauma. He had no prior history of bleeding and his medical history was unremarkable except for dementia and hypertension. Coagulation studies revealed a prolonged activated partial thromboplastin time and a mixing study was consistent with the presence of an inhibitor. Quantitative assays revealed a reduced level of factor VIII activity (1%) and the presence of a factor VIII inhibitor, measured at seven Bethesda units, in the serum. Oral prednisone therapy (60mg/day) was given. He also received intravenous aminocaproic acid and human concentrate of factor VIII (Humate-P) and topical anti-thrombolytic agents (100 units of topical thrombin cream). His hospital course was prolonged because of persistent bleeding and the development of profuse melena. He required eight units of packed red blood cells for transfusion. Hospitalization was also complicated by bradycardia of unclear etiology, which started after infusion of aminocaproic acid. His activated partial thromboplastin time gradually normalized. He was discharged to a rehabilitation facility three weeks later with improving symptoms, stable hematocrit and resolving bruises.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Clinicians should suspect a diagnosis of acquired hemophilia in older patients with unexplained persistent and profound bleeding from uncommon soft tissues, including the tongue. Use of factor VIII (Humate-P) and aminocaproic acid can be useful in this coagulopathy but clinicians should be aware of possible life-threatening side effects in older patients, including bradycardia.</p

Counting the costs: Comparing depot medroxyprogesterone acetate and norethisterone oenanthate utilisation patterns in South Africa

BACKGROUND: In South Africa, where health care resources are limited, it is important to ensure that drugs provision and use is rational. The Essential Drug List includes depot medroxyprogesterone acetate (DMPA) and norethisterone oenanthate (NET-EN) as injectable progestagen-only contraceptives (IPCs), and both products are extensively used. OBJECTIVES AND METHODS: Utilisation patterns of the injectable contraceptive products DMPA and NET-EN are compared in the context of current knowledge of the safety and efficacy of these agents. Utilisation patterns were analysed by means of a Pareto (ABC) analysis of IPCs issued from 4 South African provincial pharmaceutical depots over 3 financial years. A case study from rural KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa, is used to examine utilisation patterns and self-reported side effects experienced by 187 women using IPCs. RESULTS: IPCs accounted for a substantial share of total state expenditure on drugs. While more DMPA than NET-EN was issued, NET-EN distribution from 2 depots increased over the 3-year period. Since DMPA was cheaper, if all NET-EN clients in the 1999/2000 financial year (annualised) had used DMPA, the 4 depots could have saved 4.95 million South African Rands on product acquisition costs alone. The KZN case study showed slightly more NET-EN (54%) than DMPA (46%) use; no significant differences in self-reported side effects; and that younger women were more likely to use NET-EN than DMPA (p = 0.0001). CONCLUSIONS: Providing IPCs on the basis of age is not appropriate or cost effective. Rational use of these products should include consideration of the cost of prescribing one over another