Spain and the crisis: housing prices, credit, and macroprudential policies

In this paper, we propose a two-country, two sector monetary union DSGE model with housing. One of the countries is calibrated to represent the Spanish economy while the other one is the rest of the European monetary union. First, we illustrate how looser credit conditions coming from the Euro area, together with increases in housing demand, lead to an increase in house prices and credit in Spain. Then, we analyze to what extent, macroprudential policies could have avoided the excess in credit that triggered the financial crisis in Spain. We find that a countercyclical loan-to-value rule that mainly responds to house prices would have mitigated the credit boom in Spain. These results can also be applied to other countries facing similar problems in the housing sector and thinking about implementing macroprudential policies

Vulnerability analysis of satellite-based synchronized smart grids monitoring systems

The large-scale deployment of wide-area monitoring systems could play a strategic role in supporting the evolution of traditional power systems toward smarter and self-healing grids. The correct operation of these synchronized monitoring systems requires a common and accurate timing reference usually provided by a satellite-based global positioning system. Although these satellites signals provide timing accuracy that easily exceeds the needs of the power industry, they are extremely vulnerable to radio frequency interference. Consequently, a comprehensive analysis aimed at identifying their potential vulnerabilities is of paramount importance for correct and safe wide-area monitoring system operation. Armed with such a vision, this article presents and discusses the results of an experimental analysis aimed at characterizing the vulnerability of global positioning system based wide-area monitoring systems to external interferences. The article outlines the potential strategies that could be adopted to protect global positioning system receivers from external cyber-attacks and proposes decentralized defense strategies based on self-organizing sensor networks aimed at assuring correct time synchronization in the presence of external attacks

High-sensitivity C-reactive protein is a predictive factor of adiposity in children : results of the Identification and prevention of Dietary- and lifestyle-induced health Effects in Children and InfantS (IDEFICS) study

Background-Whereas cross-sectional studies have shown that obesity is associated with increased C-reactive protein (CRP) levels in children, little is known about the impact of low-grade inflammation on body mass changes during growth. Methods and Results-We assessed cross-sectionally and longitudinally the association of high-sensitivity (hs)-CRP levels with overweight/obesity and related cardiometabolic risk factors in the Identification and prevention of Dietary-and lifestyle-induced health Effects in Children and InfantS (IDEFICS) cohort. 16 224 children from 8 European countries (2 to 9 years) were recruited during the baseline survey (T0). After the exclusion of 7187 children because of missing hs-CRP measurements and 2421 because of drug use during the previous week, the analysis was performed on 6616 children (Boys=3347; Girls=3269; age=6.3 +/- 1.7 years). Of them, 4110 were reexamined 2 years later (T1). Anthropometric variables, blood pressure, hs-CRP, blood lipids, glucose and insulin were measured. The population at T0 was divided into 3 categories, according to the baseline hs-CRP levels. Higher hs-CRP levels were associated with significantly higher prevalence of overweight/obesity, body mass index (BMI) z-score and central adiposity indices (P values all <0.0001), and with higher blood pressure and lower HDL-cholesterol levels. Over the 2-year follow-up, higher baseline hs-CRP levels were associated with a significant increase in BMI z-score (P<0.001) and significantly higher risk of incident overweight/obesity. Conclusions-Higher hs-CRP levels are associated to higher body mass and overweight/obesity risk in a large population of European children. Children with higher baseline levels of hs-CRP had a greater increase in BMI z-score and central adiposity over time and were at higher risk of developing overweight/obesity during growth

Age- and sex-related variations in platelet count in Italy: a proposal of reference ranges based on 40987 subjects' data

BACKGROUND AND OBJECTIVES: Although several studies demonstrated that platelet count is higher in women, decreases with age, and is influenced by genetic background, most clinical laboratories still use the reference interval 150-400×10(9) platelets/L for all subjects. The present study was to identify age- and sex-specific reference intervals for platelet count. METHODS: We analysed electronic records of subjects enrolled in three population-based studies that investigated inhabitants of seven Italian areas including six geographic isolates. After exclusion of patients with malignancies, liver diseases, or inherited thrombocytopenias, which could affect platelet count, reference intervals were estimated from 40,987 subjects with the non parametric method computing the 2.5° and 97.5° percentiles. RESULTS: Platelet count was similar in men and women until the age of 14, but subsequently women had steadily more platelets than men. The number of platelets decreases quickly in childhood, stabilizes in adulthood, and further decreases in oldness. The final result of this phenomenon is that platelet count in old age was reduced by 35% in men and by 25% in women compared with early infancy. Based on these findings, we estimated reference intervals for platelet count ×10(9)/L in children (176-452), adult men (141-362), adult women (156-405), old men (122-350) and, old women (140-379). Moreover, we calculated an extended reference interval that takes into account the differences in platelet count observed in different geographic areas. CONCLUSIONS: The age-, sex-, and origin-related variability of platelet count is very wide, and the patient-adapted reference intervals we propose change the thresholds for diagnosing both thrombocytopenia and thrombocytosis in Italy

The Role of Resilience in Rebuilding Lives of Injured Veterans

The aim of this commentary is to discuss potential clinical implications of introducing resilience building interventions into care for veterans who are living with a war wound. Some war veterans are expected to live with a wound upon discharge from an active military role and also to fit into civilian life. These lifestyle adjustments can tax the person’s coping abilities and in that context may hinder successful adaptation. The experience of living with a wound or wounds, either acute or chronic, is connected to losses, including loss of mobility, loss of financial capacity (unable to work during some of the wound healing period) and losses attached to changed social roles. Psychological stress is also a common experience for veterans returning to civilian life. Psychological stress is associated with impaired healing or dysregulation of a biomarker associated with wound healing. Modern health practice is centred on symptom reduction and working with pathology however, working with people’s adaptive behaviours such as resilience has not been a consideration. Using the resilience model as a conceptual framework healthcare professionals can engage with veterans towards resilience within the context of their personal experience of ill health. Using this contemporary framework for considering these aspects of care has the potential to facilitate resistance to stressors associated with being injured potentially averting quality of life impairments

Unconstrained Hamiltonian formulation of General Relativity with thermo-elastic sources

A new formulation of the Hamiltonian dynamics of the gravitational field interacting with(non-dissipative) thermo-elastic matter is discussed. It is based on a gauge condition which allows us to encode the six degrees of freedom of the ``gravity + matter''-system (two gravitational and four thermo-mechanical ones), together with their conjugate momenta, in the Riemannian metric q_{ij} and its conjugate ADM momentum P^{ij}. These variables are not subject to constraints. We prove that the Hamiltonian of this system is equal to the total matter entropy. It generates uniquely the dynamics once expressed as a function of the canonical variables. Any function U obtained in this way must fulfil a system of three, first order, partial differential equations of the Hamilton-Jacobi type in the variables (q_{ij},P^{ij}). These equations are universal and do not depend upon the properties of the material: its equation of state enters only as a boundary condition. The well posedness of this problem is proved. Finally, we prove that for vanishing matter density, the value of U goes to infinity almost everywhere and remains bounded only on the vacuum constraints. Therefore the constrained, vacuum Hamiltonian (zero on constraints and infinity elsewhere) can be obtained as the limit of a ``deep potential well'' corresponding to non-vanishing matter. This unconstrained description of Hamiltonian General Relativity can be useful in numerical calculations as well as in the canonical approach to Quantum Gravity.Comment: 29 pages, TeX forma

Quantifying the anisotropy and tortuosity of permeable pathways in clay-rich mudstones using models based on X-ray tomography

The permeability of shales is important, because it controls where oil and gas resources can migrate to and where in the Earth hydrocarbons are ultimately stored. Shales have a well-known anisotropic directional permeability that is inherited from the depositional layering of sedimentary laminations, where the highest permeability is measured parallel to laminations and the lowest permeability is perpendicular to laminations. We combine state of the art laboratory permeability experiments with high-resolution X-ray computed tomography and for the first time can quantify the three-dimensional interconnected pathways through a rock that define the anisotropic behaviour of shales. Experiments record a physical anisotropy in permeability of one to two orders of magnitude. Two- and three-dimensional analyses of micro- and nano-scale X-ray computed tomography illuminate the interconnected pathways through the porous/permeable phases in shales. The tortuosity factor quantifies the apparent decrease in diffusive transport resulting from convolutions of the flow paths through porous media and predicts that the directional anisotropy is fundamentally controlled by the bulk rock mineral geometry. Understanding the mineral-scale control on permeability will allow for better estimations of the extent of recoverable reserves in shale gas plays globally

New evidence on housing wealth and consumption channels

This paper provides new evidence on the effect of housing wealth on consumption by focusing on the impact of home-equity extraction. We develop a household consumption decision model to illustrate the differential effect of home-equity extraction, relative to net home equity, on consumption. The home-equity extraction channel is also shown to vary with household-level borrowing constraints. Based on U.S. household survey data and an instrumental-variables approach, our empirical results validate model predictions. We find that the marginal propensity to consume is two times higher for the home-equity extraction channel relative to the conventional housing wealth effect. The consumption effect of home-equity extraction is more than 2.5 times greater for liquidity-constrained households than for unconstrained households. These results are even more pronounced in the case of durable goods consumption for constrained borrowers

Interaction between proatherosclerotic factors and right-to-left shunt on the risk of cryptogenic stroke: the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults.

Objective: To explore the interaction effects between cardiac interatrial right-to-left shunt (RLS) and proatherosclerotic factors on the risk of brain ischaemia. Design: Multicentre Italian caseecontrol study. Setting: University hospitals. Participants: 588 patients with cryptogenic stroke (CS) aged ≤45 years and 585 control subjects consecutively enrolled as part of the Italian Project on Stroke in Young Adults. Methods: Interaction effects between RLS and an individual proatherosclerotic score computed from the number of conventional vascular risk factors for the risk of CS were investigated. Data were examined by logistic regression models and expressed as interaction OR or interaction risk difference (RD). Results: CS risk increased with increasing number of proatherosclerotic factors in subjects without RLS (OR 2.73; 95% CI 1.98 to 3.76; RD +0.246; 95% CI +0.17 to +0.32; for subjects with one or more factors), but was higher in subjects with RLS and no additional proatherosclerotic factors (OR 5.14; 95% CI 3.49 to 7.58; RD +0.388; 95% CI +0.31 to +0.47) compared with subjects without RLS and no risk factors. Negative interaction and antagonistic effects between RLS and proatherosclerotic factors were observed (interaction OR 0.52; 95% CI 0.31 to 0.91; interaction RD -0.17; 95% CI -0.29 to -0.05). Conclusions: The influence of RLS on the risk of CS decreases with increasing number of atherosclerotic factors, and is highest when such factors are absent. Individual proatherosclerotic profiles may help to identify patients with CS whose patent foramen ovale is probably pathogenic