A note on Keen's model: The limits of Schumpeter's "Creative Destruction"

This paper presents a general solution for a recent model by Keen for endogenous money creation. The solution provides an analytic framework that explains all significant dynamical features of Keen's model and their parametric dependence, including an exact result for both the period and subsidence rate of the Great Moderation. It emerges that Keen's model has just two possible long term solutions: stable growth or terminal collapse. While collapse can come about immediately from economies that are nonviable by virtue of unsuitable parameters or initial conditions, in general the collapse is preceded by an interval of exponential growth. In first approximation, the duration of that exponential growth is half a period of a sinusoidal oscillation. The period is determined by reciprocal of the imaginary part of one root of a certain quintic polynomial. The real part of the same root determines the rate of growth of the economy. The coefficients of that polynomial depend in a complicated way upon the numerous parameters in the problem and so, therefore, the pattern of roots. For a favorable choice of parameters, the salient root is purely real. This is the circumstance that admits the second possible long term solution, that of indefinite stable growth, i.e. an infinite period.Comment: 25 pages, 12 figures, JEL classification: B50, C62, C63, E12, E4

The evolution of a magnetic field subject to Taylor′s constraint using a projection operator

In the rapidly rotating, low-viscosity limit of the magnetohydrodynamic equations as relevant to the conditions in planetary cores, any generated magnetic field likely evolves while simultaneously satisfying a particular continuous family of invariants, termed Taylor′s constraint. It is known that, analytically, any magnetic field will evolve subject to these constraints through the action of a time-dependent coaxially cylindrical geostrophic flow. However, severe numerical problems limit the accuracy of this procedure, leading to rapid violation of the constraints. By judicious choice of a certain truncated Galerkin representation of the magnetic field, Taylor′s constraint reduces to a finite set of conditions of size O(N), significantly less than the O(N3) degrees of freedom, where N denotes the spectral truncation in both solid angle and radius. Each constraint is homogeneous and quadratic in the magnetic field and, taken together, the constraints define the finite-dimensional Taylor manifolδ whose tangent plane can be evaluated. The key result of this paper is a description of a stable numerical method in which the evolution of a magnetic field in a spherical geometry is constrained to the manifold by projecting its rate of change onto the local tangent hyperplane. The tangent plane is evaluated by contracting the vector of spectral coefficients with the Taylor tensor, a large but very sparse 3-D array that we define. We demonstrate by example the numerical difficulties in finding the geostrophic flow numerically and how the projection method can correct for inaccuracies. Further, we show that, in a simplified system using projection, the normalized measure of Taylorization, t, may be maintained smaller than O(10-10) (where t= 0 is an exact Taylor state) over 1/10 of a dipole decay time, eight orders of magnitude smaller than analogous measures applied to recent low Ekman-number geodynamo model

The construction of exact Taylor states. I: The full sphere

The dynamics of the Earth's fluid core are described by the so-called magnetostrophic balance between Coriolis, pressure, buoyancy and Lorentz forces. In this regime the geomagnetic field is subject to a continuum of theoretical conditions, which together comprise Taylor's constraint, placing restrictions on its internal structure. Examples of such fields, so-called Taylor states, have proven difficult to realize except in highly restricted cases. In previous theoretical developments, we showed that it was possible to reduce this infinite class of conditions to a finite number of coupled quadratic homogeneous equations when adopting a certain regular truncated spectral expansion for the magnetic field. In this paper, we illustrate the power of these results by explicitly constructing two families of exact Taylor states in a full sphere that match the same low-degree observationally derived model of the radial field at the core—mantle boundary. We do this by prescribing a smooth purely poloidal field that fits this observational model and adding to it an expediently chosen unconstrained set of interior toroidal harmonics of azimuthal wavenumbers 0 and 1. Formulated in terms of the toroidal coefficients, the resulting system is purely linear and can be readily solved to find Taylor states. By calculating the extremal members of the two families that minimize the Ohmic dissipation, we argue on energetic ground that the toroidal field in the Earth's core is likely to be dominated by low order azimuthal modes, similar to the observed poloidal field. Finally, we comment on the extension of finding Taylor states within a general truncated spectral expansion with arbitrary poloidal and toroidal coefficient

A universal rank-order transform to extract signals from noisy data

We introduce an ordinate method for noisy data analysis, based solely on rank information and thus insensitive to outliers. The method is nonparametric, objective, and the required data processing is parsimonious. Main ingredients are a rank-order data matrix and its transform to a stable form, which provide linear trends in excellent agreement with least squares regression, despite the loss of magnitude information. A group symmetry orthogonal decomposition of the 2D rank-order transform for iid (white) noise is further ordered by principal component analysis. This two-step procedure provides a noise "etalon" used to characterize arbitrary stationary stochastic processes. The method readily distinguishes both the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and chaos generated by the logistic map from white noise. Ranking within randomness differs fundamentally from that in deterministic chaos and signals, thus forming the basis for signal detection. To further illustrate the breadth of applications, we apply this ordinate method to the canonical nonlinear parameter estimation problem of two-species radioactive decay, outperforming special-purpose least square software. It is demonstrated that the method excels when extracting trends in heavy-tailed noise and, unlike the Thiele-Sen estimator, is not limited to linear regression. Lastly, a simple expression is given that yields a close approximation for signal extraction of an underlying generally nonlinear signal.Comment: 26 pages, 18 figure

Universal rank-order transform to extract signals from noisy data

We introduce an ordinate method for noisy data analysis, based solely on rank information and thus insensitive to outliers. The method is nonparametric and objective, and the required data processing is parsimonious. The main ingredients include a rank-order data matrix and its transform to a stable form, which provide linear trends in excellent agreement with least squares regression, despite the loss of magnitude information. A group symmetry orthogonal decomposition of the 2D rank-order transform for iid (white) noise is further ordered by principal component analysis. This two-step procedure provides a noise “etalon” used to characterize arbitrary stationary stochastic processes. The method readily distinguishes both the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process and chaos generated by the logistic map from white noise. Ranking within randomness differs fundamentally from that in deterministic chaos and signals, thus forming the basis for signal detection. To further illustrate the breadth of applications, we apply this ordinate method to the canonical nonlinear parameter estimation problem of two-species radioactive decay, outperforming special-purpose least squares software. We demonstrate that the method excels when extracting trends in heavy-tailed noise and, unlike the Thiele-Sen estimator, is not limited to linear regression. A simple expression is given that yields a close approximation for signal extraction of an underlying, generally nonlinear signal

Multiple solutions and advection-dominated flows in the wind-driven circulation. Part I: Slip

We consider steady solutions of the barotropic quasigeostrophic vorticity equation for a single subtropical gyre with dissipation in the form of lateral friction. Solutions are governed by two parameters: inertial boundary-layer width; and viscous boundary-layer width. Numerical computations for slip conditions indicate a wedge-shaped region in this two-dimensional parameter space, where three solutions coexist. One of these is a viscous solution with weak recirculation; one a solution of intermediate recirculation; and one a strongly nonlinear recirculation gyre. Parametric scalings based on elementary solutions are numerically corroborated as the first and third of these solutions are continued away from the vicinity of the wedge. The multiplicity of solutions is anticipated by a severely truncated Fourier modal representation paralleling Veronis (1963). The Veronis work was originally applied to predict the possibility of multiple solutions in Stommel\u27s (1948) bottom friction model of the circulation. Paradoxically, it appears the solutions are, in that case, unique

Eigenanalysis of the two-dimensional wind-driven ocean circulation problem

A barotropic model of the wind-driven circulation in the subtropical region of the ocean is considered. A no-slip condition is specified at the coasts and slip at the fluid boundaries. Solutions are governed by two parameters: inertial boundary-layer width; and viscous boundary-layer width. Numerical computations indicate the existence of a wedge-shaped region in this two-dimensional parameter space, where three steady solutions coexist. The structure of the steady solution can be of three types: boundary-layer, recirculation and basin-filling-gyre. Compared to the case with slip conditions (Ierley and Sheremet, 1995) in the no-slip case the wedge-shaped region is displaced to higher Reynolds numbers. Linear stability analysis of solutions reveals several classes of perturbations: basin modes of Rossby waves, modes associated with the recirculation gyre, wall-trapped modes and a “resonant” mode. For a standard subtropical gyre wind forcing, as the Reynolds number increases, the wall-trapped mode is the first one destabilized. The resonant mode associated with disturbances on the southern side of the recirculation gyre is amplified only at larger Reynolds number, nonetheless this mode ultimately provides a stronger coupling between the mean circulation and Rossby basin modes than do the wall-trapped modes