Effect of carbapenem resistance on outcomes of bloodstream infection caused by Enterobacteriaceae in low-income and middle-income countries (PANORAMA): a multinational prospective cohort study

Background Low-income and middle-income countries (LMICs) are under-represented in reports on the burden of antimicrobial resistance. We aimed to quantify the clinical effect of carbapenem resistance on mortality and length of hospital stay among inpatients in LMICs with a bloodstream infection due to Enterobacteriaceae. Methods The PANORAMA study was a multinational prospective cohort study at tertiary hospitals in Bangladesh, Colombia, Egypt, Ghana, India, Lebanon, Nepal, Nigeria, Pakistan, and Vietnam, recruiting consecutively diagnosed patients with carbapenem-susceptible Enterobacteriaceae (CSE) and carbapenem-resistant Entero-bacteriaceae (CRE) bloodstream infections. We excluded patients who had previously been enrolled in the study and those not treated with curative intent at the time of bloodstream infection onset. There were no age restrictions. Central laboratories in India and the UK did confirmatory testing and molecular characterisation, including strain typing. We applied proportional subdistribution hazard models with inverse probability weighting to estimate the effect of carbapenem resistance on probability of discharge alive and in-hospital death, and multistate modelling for excess length of stay in hospital. All patients were included in the analysis. Findings Between Aug 1, 2014, and June 30, 2015, we recruited 297 patients from 16 sites in ten countries: 174 with CSE bloodstream infection and 123 with CRE bloodstream infection. Median age was 46 years (IQR 15–61). Crude mortality was 20% (35 of 174 patients) for patients with CSE bloodstream infection and 35% (43 of 123 patients) for patients with CRE bloodstream infection. Carbapenem resistance was associated with an increased length of hospital stay (3·7 days, 95% CI 0·3–6·9), increased probability of in-hospital mortality (adjusted subdistribution hazard ratio 1·75, 95% CI 1·04–2·94), and decreased probability of discharge alive (0·61, 0·45–0·83). Multilocus sequence typing showed various clades, with marginal overlap between strains in the CRE and CSE clades. Interpretation Carbapenem resistance is associated with increased length of hospital stay and mortality in patients with bloodstream infections in LMICs. These data will inform global estimates of the burden of antimicrobial resistance and reinforce the need for better strategies to prevent, diagnose, and treat CRE infections in LMICs

Use of the WHO Access, Watch, and Reserve classification to define patterns of hospital antibiotic use (AWaRe): an analysis of paediatric survey data from 56 countries

BACKGROUND: Improving the quality of hospital antibiotic use is a major goal of WHO's global action plan to combat antimicrobial resistance. The WHO Essential Medicines List Access, Watch, and Reserve (AWaRe) classification could facilitate simple stewardship interventions that are widely applicable globally. We aimed to present data on patterns of paediatric AWaRe antibiotic use that could be used for local and national stewardship interventions. METHODS: 1-day point prevalence survey antibiotic prescription data were combined from two independent global networks: the Global Antimicrobial Resistance, Prescribing, and Efficacy in Neonates and Children and the Global Point Prevalence Survey on Antimicrobial Consumption and Resistance networks. We included hospital inpatients aged younger than 19 years receiving at least one antibiotic on the day of the survey. The WHO AWaRe classification was used to describe overall antibiotic use as assessed by the variation between use of Access, Watch, and Reserve antibiotics, for neonates and children and for the commonest clinical indications. FINDINGS: Of the 23 572 patients included from 56 countries, 18 305 were children (77·7%) and 5267 were neonates (22·3%). Access antibiotic use in children ranged from 7·8% (China) to 61·2% (Slovenia) of all antibiotic prescriptions. The use of Watch antibiotics in children was highest in Iran (77·3%) and lowest in Finland (23·0%). In neonates, Access antibiotic use was highest in Singapore (100·0%) and lowest in China (24·2%). Reserve antibiotic use was low in all countries. Major differences in clinical syndrome-specific patterns of AWaRe antibiotic use in lower respiratory tract infection and neonatal sepsis were observed between WHO regions and countries. INTERPRETATION: There is substantial global variation in the proportion of AWaRe antibiotics used in hospitalised neonates and children. The AWaRe classification could potentially be used as a simple traffic light metric of appropriate antibiotic use. Future efforts should focus on developing and evaluating paediatric antibiotic stewardship programmes on the basis of the AWaRe index. FUNDING: GARPEC was funded by the PENTA Foundation. GARPEC-China data collection was funded by the Sanming Project of Medicine in Shenzhen (SZSM2015120330). bioMérieux provided unrestricted funding support for the Global-PPS

Global burden of bacterial antimicrobial resistance in 2019: a systematic analysis

BACKGROUND: Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) poses a major threat to human health around the world. Previous publications have estimated the effect of AMR on incidence, deaths, hospital length of stay, and health-care costs for specific pathogen-drug combinations in select locations. To our knowledge, this study presents the most comprehensive estimates of AMR burden to date. METHODS: We estimated deaths and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) attributable to and associated with bacterial AMR for 23 pathogens and 88 pathogen-drug combinations in 204 countries and territories in 2019. We obtained data from systematic literature reviews, hospital systems, surveillance systems, and other sources, covering 471 million individual records or isolates and 7585 study-location-years. We used predictive statistical modelling to produce estimates of AMR burden for all locations, including for locations with no data. Our approach can be divided into five broad components: number of deaths where infection played a role, proportion of infectious deaths attributable to a given infectious syndrome, proportion of infectious syndrome deaths attributable to a given pathogen, the percentage of a given pathogen resistant to an antibiotic of interest, and the excess risk of death or duration of an infection associated with this resistance. Using these components, we estimated disease burden based on two counterfactuals: deaths attributable to AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by drug-susceptible infections), and deaths associated with AMR (based on an alternative scenario in which all drug-resistant infections were replaced by no infection). We generated 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for final estimates as the 25th and 975th ordered values across 1000 posterior draws, and models were cross-validated for out-of-sample predictive validity. We present final estimates aggregated to the global and regional level. FINDINGS: On the basis of our predictive statistical models, there were an estimated 4·95 million (3·62-6·57) deaths associated with bacterial AMR in 2019, including 1·27 million (95% UI 0·911-1·71) deaths attributable to bacterial AMR. At the regional level, we estimated the all-age death rate attributable to resistance to be highest in western sub-Saharan Africa, at 27·3 deaths per 100 000 (20·9-35·3), and lowest in Australasia, at 6·5 deaths (4·3-9·4) per 100 000. Lower respiratory infections accounted for more than 1·5 million deaths associated with resistance in 2019, making it the most burdensome infectious syndrome. The six leading pathogens for deaths associated with resistance (Escherichia coli, followed by Staphylococcus aureus, Klebsiella pneumoniae, Streptococcus pneumoniae, Acinetobacter baumannii, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa) were responsible for 929 000 (660 000-1 270 000) deaths attributable to AMR and 3·57 million (2·62-4·78) deaths associated with AMR in 2019. One pathogen-drug combination, meticillin-resistant S aureus, caused more than 100 000 deaths attributable to AMR in 2019, while six more each caused 50 000-100 000 deaths: multidrug-resistant excluding extensively drug-resistant tuberculosis, third-generation cephalosporin-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant A baumannii, fluoroquinolone-resistant E coli, carbapenem-resistant K pneumoniae, and third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K pneumoniae. INTERPRETATION: To our knowledge, this study provides the first comprehensive assessment of the global burden of AMR, as well as an evaluation of the availability of data. AMR is a leading cause of death around the world, with the highest burdens in low-resource settings. Understanding the burden of AMR and the leading pathogen-drug combinations contributing to it is crucial to making informed and location-specific policy decisions, particularly about infection prevention and control programmes, access to essential antibiotics, and research and development of new vaccines and antibiotics. There are serious data gaps in many low-income settings, emphasising the need to expand microbiology laboratory capacity and data collection systems to improve our understanding of this important human health threat. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Wellcome Trust, and Department of Health and Social Care using UK aid funding managed by the Fleming Fund