Credit scores, cardiovascular disease risk, and human capital.

Credit scores are the most widely used instruments to assess whether or not a person is a financial risk. Credit scoring has been so successful that it has expanded beyond lending and into our everyday lives, even to inform how insurers evaluate our health. The pervasive application of credit scoring has outpaced knowledge about why credit scores are such useful indicators of individual behavior. Here we test if the same factors that lead to poor credit scores also lead to poor health. Following the Dunedin (New Zealand) Longitudinal Study cohort of 1,037 study members, we examined the association between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and the underlying factors that account for this association. We find that credit scores are negatively correlated with cardiovascular disease risk. Variation in household income was not sufficient to account for this association. Rather, individual differences in human capital factors—educational attainment, cognitive ability, and self-control—predicted both credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk and accounted for ∼45% of the correlation between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk. Tracing human capital factors back to their childhood antecedents revealed that the characteristic attitudes, behaviors, and competencies children develop in their first decade of life account for a significant portion (∼22%) of the link between credit scores and cardiovascular disease risk at midlife. We discuss the implications of these findings for policy debates about data privacy, financial literacy, and early childhood interventions

Stochastic Gravity: Theory and Applications

Whereas semiclassical gravity is based on the semiclassical Einstein equation with sources given by the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor of quantum fields, stochastic semiclassical gravity is based on the Einstein-Langevin equation, which has in addition sources due to the noise kernel.In the first part, we describe the fundamentals of this new theory via two approaches: the axiomatic and the functional. In the second part, we describe three applications of stochastic gravity theory. First, we consider metric perturbations in a Minkowski spacetime: we compute the two-point correlation functions for the linearized Einstein tensor and for the metric perturbations. Second, we discuss structure formation from the stochastic gravity viewpoint. Third, we discuss the backreaction of Hawking radiation in the gravitational background of a quasi-static black hole.Comment: 75 pages, no figures, submitted to Living Reviews in Relativit

Quantum fields during black hole formation: how good an approximation is the Unruh state?

We study the quantum effects of a test Klein-Gordon field in a Vaidya space-time consisting of a collapsing null shell that forms a Schwazschild black hole, by explicitly obtaining, in a (1 + 1)-dimensional model, the Wightman function, the renormalised stress-energy tensor, and by analysing particle detector rates along stationary orbits in the exterior black hole region, and make a comparison with the folklore that the Unruh state is the state that emerges from black hole formation. In the causal future of the shell, we find a negative ingoing flux at the horizon that agrees precisely with the Unruh state calculation, and is the source of black hole radiation, while in the future null infinity we find that the radiation flux output in the Unruh state is an upper bound for the positive outgoing flux in the collapsing null shell spacetime. This indicates that back-reaction estimates based on Unruh state calculations over-estimate the energy output carried by so-called pre-Hawking radiation. The value of the output predicted by the Unruh state is however approached exponentially fast. Finally, we find that at late times, stationary observers in the exterior black hole region in the collapsing shell spacetime detect the local Hawking temperature, which is also well characterised by the Unruh state, coming from right-movers. Early-time discrepancies between the detector rates for the Unruh state and for the state in the collapsing shell spacetime are explored numerically

Stochastic Gravity: Theory and Applications

Whereas semiclassical gravity is based on the semiclassical Einstein equation with sources given by the expectation value of the stress-energy tensor of quantum fields, stochastic semiclassical gravity is based on the Einstein-Langevin equation, which has in addition sources due to the noise kernel. In the first part, we describe the fundamentals of this new theory via two approaches: the axiomatic and the functional. In the second part, we describe three applications of stochastic gravity theory. First, we consider metric perturbations in a Minkowski spacetime, compute the two-point correlation functions of these perturbations and prove that Minkowski spacetime is a stable solution of semiclassical gravity. Second, we discuss structure formation from the stochastic gravity viewpoint. Third, we discuss the backreaction of Hawking radiation in the gravitational background of a black hole and describe the metric fluctuations near the event horizon of an evaporating black holeComment: 100 pages, no figures; an update of the 2003 review in Living Reviews in Relativity gr-qc/0307032 ; it includes new sections on the Validity of Semiclassical Gravity, the Stability of Minkowski Spacetime, and the Metric Fluctuations of an Evaporating Black Hol

The Evolution of Compact Binary Star Systems

We review the formation and evolution of compact binary stars consisting of white dwarfs (WDs), neutron stars (NSs), and black holes (BHs). Binary NSs and BHs are thought to be the primary astrophysical sources of gravitational waves (GWs) within the frequency band of ground-based detectors, while compact binaries of WDs are important sources of GWs at lower frequencies to be covered by space interferometers (LISA). Major uncertainties in the current understanding of properties of NSs and BHs most relevant to the GW studies are discussed, including the treatment of the natal kicks which compact stellar remnants acquire during the core collapse of massive stars and the common envelope phase of binary evolution. We discuss the coalescence rates of binary NSs and BHs and prospects for their detections, the formation and evolution of binary WDs and their observational manifestations. Special attention is given to AM CVn-stars -- compact binaries in which the Roche lobe is filled by another WD or a low-mass partially degenerate helium-star, as these stars are thought to be the best LISA verification binary GW sources.Comment: 105 pages, 18 figure

Generation of integration-free neural progenitor cells from cells in human urine

Human neural stem cells hold great promise for research and therapy in neural disease. We describe the generation of integration-free and expandable human neural progenitor cells (NPCs). We combined an episomal system to deliver reprogramming factors with a chemically defined culture medium to reprogram epithelial-like cells from human urine into NPCs (hUiNPCs). These transgene-free hUiNPCs can self-renew and can differentiate into multiple functional neuronal subtypes and glial cells in vitro. Although functional in vivo analysis is still needed, we report that the cells survive and differentiate upon transplant into newborn rat brain.postprin

Multi-messenger observations of a binary neutron star merger

On 2017 August 17 a binary neutron star coalescence candidate (later designated GW170817) with merger time 12:41:04 UTC was observed through gravitational waves by the Advanced LIGO and Advanced Virgo detectors. The Fermi Gamma-ray Burst Monitor independently detected a gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) with a time delay of ~1.7 s with respect to the merger time. From the gravitational-wave signal, the source was initially localized to a sky region of 31 deg2 at a luminosity distance of 40+8-8 Mpc and with component masses consistent with neutron stars. The component masses were later measured to be in the range 0.86 to 2.26 Mo. An extensive observing campaign was launched across the electromagnetic spectrum leading to the discovery of a bright optical transient (SSS17a, now with the IAU identification of AT 2017gfo) in NGC 4993 (at ~40 Mpc) less than 11 hours after the merger by the One- Meter, Two Hemisphere (1M2H) team using the 1 m Swope Telescope. The optical transient was independently detected by multiple teams within an hour. Subsequent observations targeted the object and its environment. Early ultraviolet observations revealed a blue transient that faded within 48 hours. Optical and infrared observations showed a redward evolution over ~10 days. Following early non-detections, X-ray and radio emission were discovered at the transient’s position ~9 and ~16 days, respectively, after the merger. Both the X-ray and radio emission likely arise from a physical process that is distinct from the one that generates the UV/optical/near-infrared emission. No ultra-high-energy gamma-rays and no neutrino candidates consistent with the source were found in follow-up searches. These observations support the hypothesis that GW170817 was produced by the merger of two neutron stars in NGC4993 followed by a short gamma-ray burst (GRB 170817A) and a kilonova/macronova powered by the radioactive decay of r-process nuclei synthesized in the ejecta

Technology enhanced assessment in complex collaborative settings

Building upon discussions by the Assessment Working Group at EDUsummIT 2013, this article reviews recent developments in technology enabled assessments of collaborative problem solving in order to point out where computerised assessments are particularly useful (and where non-computerised assessments need to be retained or developed) while assuring that the purposes and designs are transparent and empowering for teachers and learners. Technology enabled assessments of higher order critical thinking in a collaborative social context can provide data about the actions, communications and products created by a learner in a designed task space. Principled assessment design is required in order for such a space to provide trustworthy evidence of learning, and the design must incorporate and take account of the engagement of the audiences for the assessment as well as vary with the purposes and contexts of the assessment. Technology enhanced assessment enables in-depth unobtrusive documentation or ‘quiet assessment’ of the many layers and dynamics of authentic performance and allows greater flexibility and dynamic interactions in and among the design features. Most important for assessment FOR learning, are interactive features that allow the learner to turn up or down the intensity, amount and sharpness of the information needed for self-absorption and adoption of the feedback. Most important in assessment OF learning, are features that compare the learner with external standards of performance. Most important in assessment AS learning, are features that allow multiple performances and a wide array of affordances for authentic action, communication and the production of artefacts

Postmenopausal hormones and sleep quality in the elderly: a population based study

<p>Abstract</p> <p>Background</p> <p>Sleep disturbance and insomnia are commonly reported by postmenopausal women. However, the relationship between hormone therapy (HT) and sleep disturbances in postmenopausal community-dwelling adults is understudied. Using data from the multicenter Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF), we tested the relationship between HT and sleep-wake estimated from actigraphy.</p> <p>Methods</p> <p>Sleep-wake was ascertained by wrist actigraphy in 3,123 women aged 84 ± 4 years (range 77-99) from the Study of Osteoporotic Fractures (SOF). This sample represents 30% of the original SOF study and 64% of participants seen at this visit. Data were collected for a mean of 4 consecutive 24-hour periods. Sleep parameters measured objectively included total sleep time, sleep efficiency (SE), sleep latency, wake after sleep onset (WASO), and nap time. All analyses were adjusted for potential confounders (age, clinic site, race, BMI, cognitive function, physical activity, depression, anxiety, education, marital status, age at menopause, alcohol use, prior hysterectomy, and medical conditions).</p> <p>Results</p> <p>Actigraphy measurements were available for 424 current, 1,289 past, and 1,410 never users of HT. Women currently using HT had a shorter WASO time (76 vs. 82 minutes, P = 0.03) and fewer long-wake (≥ 5 minutes) episodes (6.5 vs. 7.1, P = 0.004) than never users. Past HT users had longer total sleep time than never users (413 vs. 403 minutes, P = 0.002). Women who never used HT had elevated odds of SE <70% (OR,1.37;95%CI,0.98-1.92) and significantly higher odds of WASO ≥ 90 minutes (OR,1.37;95%CI,1.02-1.83) and ≥ 8 long-wake episodes (OR,1.58;95%CI,1.18-2.12) when compared to current HT users.</p> <p>Conclusions</p> <p>Postmenopausal women currently using HT had improved sleep quality for two out of five objective measures: shorter WASO and fewer long-wake episodes. The mechanism behind these associations is not clear. For postmenopausal women, starting HT use should be considered carefully in balance with other risks since the vascular side-effects of hormone replacement may exceed its beneficial effects on sleep.</p